Check out Nicholas Martin's NHL best bet tonight with his Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Game 7 pick and prediction.
There are a number of narratives surrounding this Game 7, which makes it one of the most compelling hockey games in recent memory.
Can a Leafs core that is known for playoff letdowns finish a 3-1 comeback and win their first Game 7 since 2004? They have lost three straight Game 7's to the Bruins, and have not won a series versus Boston since 1959.
The Bruins, meanwhile, will be looking to avoid a second straight 3-1 collapse in the First Round, and have lost three straight Game 7's of their own.
The losing coach will probably be seeking a new position this offseason, while that team's roster would likely see considerable offseason changes made.
With the stakes as high as they are in two of hockey's best markets, don't be surprised if this game remains tight and nervy throughout, as we saw in Games 5 and 6. That's the type of game I'm targeting with my same-game parlay, which I will outline below.
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Same-Game Parlay: Leafs vs. Bruins
The Parlay (+450 at bet365):
- Under 6.5
- Maple Leafs Moneyline
- William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
Those who have followed my recent work or bets posted in the Action app won't be surprised with any of these three selections, but let outline why they should remain solid wagers in Game 7. I also see all three bets as having standalone value as singles.
Under 6.5 | Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline
I'll combine these two legs into one write-up, because they work very hand in hand. The Leafs should be able to make this contest into a coin-flip type nail-biter like we have seen in Games 5 and 6, which would lend itself to bets on both the Under and the +120 underdog.
The greatest shortcoming of the Leafs in their playoff history under coach Sheldon Keefe has not actually been their inability to defend, but their inability to generate any kind of meaningful offense.
Including their two-goal outputs in Games 5 and 6, they have now averaged 1.93 goals for per game over their last 13 playoff games.
The Leafs continue to lean towards a highly conservative playing style in the postseason. They currently feature a defensive core that strives to make safe plays with the puck as much as possible, both in the offensive and defensive zones. Many of the Leafs' key forwards do a great job of defending at even strength, but have been unable to make dynamic plays at the other end of the ice.
The Leafs have given up very few quality chances against at even strength in this series. They have allowed only 2.29 xGA/60, and have been visibly dominant defensively over the last two games. And while they haven't generated much offensively in this series, at even strength it has been clear that Toronto is still generating more than the Bruins.
The Bruins have been drastically better in terms of special teams play. Their power play has succeeded 40% of the time, while their penalty kill has clicked 95% of the time.
Referees tend to let more calls go as series get deeper though, and players tend to be more careful trying to make physical impacts that could lead to penalties. That has lead to less special teams time over the last two games, which has minimized the Bruins' greatest edge in the series, which was their special teams.
Goaltender Jeremy Swayman's incredible play has been the other notable edge for the Bruins in the series, but that edge also looks to be minimized for the time being. Joseph Woll has played to a +4.3 GSAx and .964 save percentage since entering the series in Game 5.
Woll is not likely to outplay Swayman over a large sample, but if he can save the chances he is supposed to, that will make the Leafs a very live underdog in this game, and keep the total low.
This series has seen an average of just 4.5 goals per game so far, and there isn't much logic to suggest things will open up in Game 7. Per our BetLabs database, NHL Game 7 under's have gone 41-26-9 all time and own a +12.3% ROI.
The Leafs are priced at +120 to win this game, and I would bet them down to +110. For our SGP I went with the alternative total of 6.5, but I would bet the game total under 5.5 as a single to -135.
William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal:
Due to a migraine issue, Nylander missed the first three games of this series. He's clearly gotten up to speed over the last two matchups, however, with 10 shots on goal from 14 attempts. He's put up over 3.5 shots on goal in seven of his last nine playoff games, and I see value backing him to follow up his excellent Game 6 effort with a strong shot output in Game 7.
Nylander is priced at -120 to record 3.5 shots on goal in this matchup, and I would play that down to -125.
Same-Game Parlay: Under 6.5 | Maple Leafs Moneyline | William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+450 at Bet365 | Play to +425)
