Stars vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Stars Odds | +110 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115 / -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday, February 7 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Stars will look to make it five straight wins as they take on the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.
Dallas' winning streak has quietly placed the team on top of the Central division, and staying there should provide ample motivation down the stretch.
The Leafs meanwhile continue to struggle on home ice, and after a 3-2 loss to the Islanders Monday, they own a record of 11-10-2.
Dallas Stars
The Stars won't feel particularly good about Tuesday night's win in Buffalo. They were outplayed by a weak Sabres team in a 2-1 victory.
Jake Oettinger stopped 47 of 48 shots and rightfully claimed the game's first star, which allowed his team to collect two points in what was clearly a rusty performance.
Tuesday night's NHL results did indicate that the NHL All-Star break/bye-week layoff was a factor in teams' play, and that we probably do not need to put too much stock in the Stars' one-off performance.
The fact that Oettinger played to his potential and stole the team a victory might be as encouraging for Stars fans as if they had rolled 6-1. I recently outlined why I like the Stars' Cup chances and how they are being underrated because a team save % of .897 was not likely to continue with Oettinger on the roster.
Especially because Oettinger took up a huge workload last night, we should count on backup Scott Wedgewood taking the crease in this back-to-back spot.
Wedgewood will likely continue posting better results than we saw when he made 11 straight starts in December and early January, which tanked his season splits. He should be viewed as a league-average backup option for the time being despite owning a -7.4 GSAx and .899 save % across 22 appearances.
If the goaltending trends up, the Stars look like one of the league's true elites. They have a goals-for-per-game average this season at 3.66 – third-best in the league – and the construction of the roster dictates that strong production can continue.
Since Miro Heiskanen returned to the lineup on Jan. 25, he has spent the vast majority of his time alongside Thomas Harley on what is statistically one of the best defensive pairings in the league.
Both are excellent puck-movers who are capable of jumping up as a fourth man in the attack. They have generated 3.57 expected goals for per 60 in 151.2 minutes together at even strength, which ranks third highest among defense pairings who have spent more than 100 minutes together.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Since the turn of the new year, the Maple Leafs are 8-5-1 with a goal differential of +10.
If you exclude empty net goals, they have lost by more than one only once in those 14 games. Their 56.78% ranks sixth in the league over that span, and their 3.74 xGF/60 ranks third.
The fact that every defensive breakdown will draw more headlines in Toronto than anywhere else is working to hide the fact that the team is due for positive regression offensively. There is too much high-end offensive talent to finish quality chances off at a well-below-average rate for long, and the underlying numbers state that their ninth-best goal-per-game average is due to rise.
What Leafs fans should have less conviction toward is the goaltending situation with Joseph Woll sidelined.
Ilya Samsonov has bounced back with five straight strong performances, but he still owns a -10.5 GSAx and .879 save % across 20 appearances.
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Stars vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
For all the negative narratives surrounding the Leafs game, it's easy to forget that they feature one of the league's best offenses. They sit right at the top of the league in terms of recent chances created, and they have the scoring talents to pay off those looks at a high rate.
As a result, Toronto should be able to create quality looks tonight and make life tough for Wedgewood.
The Stars hold a ton of offensive firepower themselves, as well as an elite power-play unit. The fact that they have three separate offensive units generating at above-average rates in particular should give the Leafs some issues. Even if Samsonov continues his strong play and stops the chances he is supposed to, the Stars will still likely net three or more here.
With Wedgewood in goal, this should be a heavily juiced total of 6.5, and I see value betting the over up to -120. As of this writing, PointsBet is offering the best line at -110 – with others close behind at -115.
Over at bet365, users can also bet on both teams to go over 2.5 at +140 odds, and that is also worthy of a play since I specifically like the chances that both teams contribute to this total.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-110 at PointsBet | Play to -120)
