Blues vs. Canucks Odds
| Blues Odds | +102 |
| Canucks Odds | -117 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (+104 / -122) |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNP |
| Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
An important Western Conference showdown takes place between the St. Louis Blues and Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on Monday.
These teams sit three and five points out of the final wild card spot, respectively, and are priced in a dead heat to win this contest.
Which side holds the edge Monday night? Let's dive in.
St. Louis Blues
The Blues enter this matchup in strong form, having posted a 4-1-1 record over their last six games to gain some meaningful ground in the postseason race.
St. Louis' roster holds some truly elite offensive pieces, such as Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich, and has continued to prove it can make the most with less of the run of play over the last two seasons.
The Blues are far above average in their ability to both finish and create lethal scoring chances, and public expected goals models continue to have a hard time quantifying just how dangerous this offense truly is.
St. Louis owns a +4.25 goals scored above expected rating this season, which could be viewed as a knock. But for this side, it's arguably a positive. The Blues continue to attempt and complete more passes through the slot than an average team and have shooters capable of paying off those looks.
Neither of those factors are accounted for entirely analytically, and the sample of this Blues roster outscoring expectations has now become quite large.
The Blues are never likely to control more of the play, and their 44.06 expected goals share over the last 10 games ranks as the 11th-worst mark league-wide. But over a sample of almost three seasons St. Louis has continued to prove it can achieve acceptable results while carrying less of the play.
Jordan Binnington will likely start in goal for St. Louis. He owns a -4.8 goals saved above expected rating and a .894 save percentage throughout 23 games played this season.
Binnington's struggles have been widely covered, but he does enter this matchup in the midst of a strong run of play with a .927 save percentage throughout his last three contests.
Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver looked utterly lifeless Saturday at home and suffered an entirely deserved 5-1 defeat at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets.
Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser missed that contest due to what's being labeled as a non-COVID illness, and their status for tonight's game remains unclear.
Similar to the Blues, Vancouver's defensive play has been very shaky and seems likely to be a consistent problem all season long with the roster on hand.
The Canucks have allowed 3.54 xGA/60 over the last 10 games and have played to a 45.03% expected goals share overall.
Those marks are incredibly similar to the Blues' rates over the same sample, but St. Louis has continually found success with those kinds of numbers. Vancouver, meanwhile, has not.
The Canucks' goaltending situation has also taken a heavy step backward compared to last season, as Thatcher Demko was notably out of form prior to suffering an injury.
Spencer Martin will likely start for the Canucks Monday. Martin has played to a -5.3 goals saved above expected rating and .889 save percentage in 16 games.
Blues vs. Canucks Pick
In a number of ways, these two sides actually mirror each other. Each has the ability to generate offense at a high level when in top form, but they've shown concerning defensive play and shaky netminding.
For the time being, St. Louis clearly seems to be in sharper form and on the up-and-up, while negative storylines seem to be running rampant in Vancouver, which may ultimately skate without its best player again tonight.
If the Canucks take the ice at closer to full health, I still believe -110 is a great price to back the St. Louis Blues in this matchup. Should Vancouver look anything like we saw Saturday night as it continues to fight an illness in the room, -110 is a spectacular number.
That will ring particularly true if Pettersson remains sidelined, as he has quietly been a borderline MVP candidate for a really mediocre Canucks side this season.
Pick: Blues -110 (Play to -115 · -120 if Pettersson is Out) |
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