Sabres vs. Kings Odds
| Sabres Odds | +164 |
| Kings Odds | -200 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -122 |
The Kings stumble down the Western Conference standings continued Monday, as they lost in overtime at home as -380 favorites to Sharks. They own a record of 2-6-5 in their last 13 matchups yet continue to garner respect from oddsmakers due to their steady underlying process.
The Sabres suffered a 4-2 loss Tuesday night in Anaheim as their offence again failed to generate quality looks from the inner slot with any consistency. They own a record of 5-5-0 in their last 10 games and are 9-11-3 overall on the road.
Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres' offensive play does not look anything like what we saw last season when they scored 3.57 goals per game. This season: 2.89 goals through 47 games. Coach Don Granato clearly put a emphasis on improved defensive play, making his side into one of the more low-event teams in hockey.
In the last 10 games, the Sabres have allowed only 26.56 shots against per 60. However, they are getting very few interior looks themselves and own an xGF/60 of just 3.03 over that same time frame.
It was reasonable to speculate that Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power would push play in the right direction more consistently than we have seen this season. It has also been downright shocking how bad Conor Clifton has been at times. The result has been a subpar blue line altogether, which is not overly well insulated by strong two-way forwards.
It's unclear who will start in goal for Buffalo on Wednesday night. Devon Levi, who owns a +0.2 GSAx and .889 save % across 19 appearances this season, is considered probable.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings have completely hit a wall offensively of late, generating only 2.00 goals for per game over the last 13. That has left coach Todd McLellan searching for answers as his team slides down the standings. They have generated 3.11 goals for per 60 in that span and shot at only 6.76%. They have also faced only two teams likely to finish out of the playoff.
However. the Kings are supposed to be one of the league's best sides, so facing a painfully tough slate of teams is not a great excuse. A loss at home to the Sharks didn't help things, either, and suddenly McLellan is on the hot seat. He has looked to shuffle the lines often during the latter parts of this losing skid, but we should expect him to look toward his most effective top unit in this spot.
In the third period of the Kings' loss to San Jose, McLellan turned back to his most common top line composition of Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe, and Anze Kopitar. The trio owns a 53.8% expected goals rating in 439.1 minutes together at even strength this season, and a better actual goals percentage to boot.
Kempe has been one of several Kings suffering through a cold streak in terms of finishing. He had nine shot attempts in Monday's contest but was unable to break through with any production.
The Kings are expected to hand this start to Cam Talbot, who has rested in three straight contests after a very shaky stretch of play. He owns a +7.6 GSAx and .915 save percentage across 30 appearances this season.
ESPN Bet is here! Maximize your Sabres vs. Kings action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
Sabres vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
We were lucky to get a split with our Pierre-Luc Dubois props Monday, as he was notably awful prior to being subjected to the third line again. This looks like another good spot to target the Kings top line though, as they move Byfield back up with Kempe and Kopitar.
That line has the potential to dominate in this favorable matchup, and you could sell me on backing a number of different props from the trio as a result. If this game is at all close, McLellan should be desperate to grab a win and afford his big guns lots of ice time.
Yes, Buffalo has become an entirely low-event team, but that does not necessarily concern me because the Kings are going to own the puck enough to still generate chances at an above-average rate.
Kempe is trending lower than we should expect in terms of shot volume and is priced at +124 to record more than 3.5 shots on goal. That's a better number than we have often seen for him the last two seasons, particularly in a better-than-average matchup. Betting him to record four shots at anything better than +115 is a play for me.
Pick: Adrian Kempe Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +124 (FanDuel, Play to +115)
For extra value betting Kempe, use our FanDuel Promo Code and get bonus bets as a new user welcome.
