Oilers vs. Capitals Odds
| Oilers Odds | -138 |
| Capitals Odds | +115 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -128 / +104 |
Edmonton's shocking 5-12-7 start could be the most fascinating story of the season. The Oilers were expected to contend for the Stanley Cup, but that has gone out the window as they've displayed some shaky defensive play and horrific goaltending.
Meanwhile, the Capitals sit second in the Metropolitan division (10-4-2) and are performing drastically better than anybody expected.
That being said, lets get to my Oilers vs Capitals prediction today.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers' season has been a comedy of errors. The goaltending has been the biggest reason for their subpar record, but it is also obvious that they are experiencing numerous defensive breakdowns.
It was well publicized that, prior to his firing, former head coach Jay Woodcroft instilled a new defensive zone structure. The Oilers switched from man coverage to a hybrid zone system, which caused lots of lost assignments and confusion. Perhaps with more time (and now under Kris Knoblauch) the Oilers will figure it out defensively.
Mattias Ekholm has taken a huge step backward and has gone from being a pillar of strength on the blue-line to a weakness. Darnell Nurse continues to get exposed defensively and both Cody Ceci and Evan Bouchard have also had costly mistakes.
Still, the Oilers' 54.75% expected goal rating in the past 10 games is the sixth-best mark in the league.
For all the bad they are doing inside their own defensive zone, the Oilers are still creating as numerous chances at the other end. Their 3.92 expected goals for per 60 is the second-highest mark in the league, but finishing chances at a below-average rate has hidden the quality of their offensive play. Given all of the offensive talent on this roster, more of Edmonton's high-danger chances should turn into actual goals moving forward.
The Oilers' vaunted powerplay ranks 10th in the league at 21.9%, but that's still an underachievement based upon the expectations of the unit.
Hoping for Stuart Skinner to find his form is likely still Edmonton's best shot at finding respectable goaltending from within. That makes me believe he'll gets another chance on Friday, but the final decision it is a tough one to project.
Skinner has put together a disastrous .865 save % and -10.0 GSAx in 13 appearances this season after a strong rookie campaign a season ago.
Washington Capitals
Conversely, the Capitals have overachieved this season. However, here is still an element of puck luck working in the Capitals favor and their goaltenders likely won't play to the sixth-best save % in the league this season.
The Capitals own a true goal differential of -1 and have played to an xGF% of 50.10 this season. By no means am I saying the Capitals are bad, but it is hard to view them as a true 105-point team the rest of the way, despite what their current record indicates.
Still, new coach Spencer Carbery deserves a lot of credit for the early season accomplishments. He has effectively worked key pieces in and out of the lineup and is getting the most out of Connor McMichael.
The Capitals' playoff hopes sit at roughly 30% in a crowded Eastern Conference race. If they sneak in, that overachievement should be an enticing angle for voters, yet Carbery is still 40/1 to win the Jack Adams Award (best head coach).
Darcy Kuemper will likely get the start Friday. He owns +0.1 GSAx and a .892 save % in nine appearances this season.
Oilers vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
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The Capitals overall process shouldn't allow them to collect points at such an absurd pace for much longer, but they are playing carefree and have put together a drastically better start than anybody expected. They should lose more coin-flip type contests and will come down to earth.
Meanwhile, the Oilers have found ways to win far less games than they should have based upon their overall process. They now have the weight of the world on their shoulders, going from a cup contender to a team likely to miss the playoffs.
Edmonton's elite offensive talents should find a way to do some damage in this matchup. This spot could also arguably set up poorly for Washington hosting a desperate Oilers side. I think Edmonton finds a way to end its road trip with a much needed victory and betting that at -130 is fine.
However, backing the Oilers to score over 3.5 goals (+100) is my preferred play, and I'd play that to -110.
If you want to go ahead and fade my take and bet the Capitals to win this game, I'd also recommend putting some of that stake on Carbery (40/1) to win the Jack Adams Awards. His Capitals are offering up the exact script that has pushed Rick Tocchet to being the front runner for the award, yet nobody has paid attention yet.
Pick: Edmonton Oilers Over 3.5 Goals (+100 DraftKings) | Play to -110
