Lightning vs. Blues Odds
| Lightning Odds | -138 |
| Blues Odds | +115 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110 / -110 |
The Lightning have put forth uncharacteristically bad defensive play in the early going of this season and enter Tuesday's matchup with a 6-5-4 record having allowed 3.60 goals per game. Contrarily, the Blues have displayed surprisingly strong defensive play, allowing only 2.69 goals per game on route to a record of 7-5-1.
Let's preview the Lightning-Blues Tuesday showdown, featuring my top Lightning vs Blues prediction today.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Playing without superstar netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy likely has not helped the Lightning's alarming goals against totals, but the greater problem has been poor defensive play. Jonas Johansson was surprisingly excellent early on, but has come down to earth recently.
Tampa has played to an 11th-worst xGA/60 of 3.44 this season, and is allowing 32.96 shots against per 60.
Victor Hedman's defensive game continues to drop off considerably from where it was the majority of his career. He and Nick Perbix have played to an xGA/60 of 4.87 in 57.2 minutes together on the Lightning's top defensive unit. That is the third-worst mark of any pairing to have played more than 50 minutes together.
The Lightning's offensive play has been quite strong to this point. They have scored 3.53 goals per game and are receiving strong play from all of the usual suspects.
Nikita Kucherov has been brilliant thus far with 23 points in 14 games, and is the driving force on an elite power play clicking at 31.4%.
Johansson started the season off in surprisingly dominant form, but has hit a snag recently allowing four or more goals in five straight starts. He now holds a GSAx of -0.8 and save % of .899 in 12 appearances this season.
Andrei Vasilevskiy practiced Monday and appears likely to return on schedule sometime in December.
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis was one of the NHL's worst defensive sides last season and received shaky goaltending from starter Jordan Binnington. In 2022-23, the Blues played to a 10th-worst 3.42 xGA/60 and allowed 3.51 goals per game.
Considering they are running back nearly the same roster, it is interesting to see how improved their defensive play has been this season. They have allowed only 3.32 xGA/60, but more importantly are getting drastically better play from Binnington in goal thus far. He has played to a +6.7 GSAx and owns a save % of .923 in nine appearances. He is likely to get the start in tonight's matchup.
Star winger Pavel Buchnevich had not played to his potential in the early going of the season, but broke through with a hat trick in Colorado Saturday. He and Rob Thomas have the potential to lead the Blues' top offensive line to strong results, and Jordan Kyrou could add meaningful offensive upside on the second unit.
Defensive accountability from the offensive stars has been an important subject from head coach Craig Berube early on this season and in training camp. That has shown early on with the teams early improvements, and it will be interesting to see if the Blues continue to display such a night-and-day turnaround in style over a larger sample.
Lightning vs. Blues
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game is an interesting take on current form versus expected form in the handicapping world. If you had told me at the start of the season we would catch Tampa Bay at -130 to win in St. Louis I would have thought that is a great price. The Lightning's roster should be good for about 15 more points this season on paper.
The Blues have played surprisingly solid hockey of late, and are getting high-quality goaltending that was not expected. Their strong process is certainly being reflected in the betting numbers on this game, as this one is priced closer than I would have guess three weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Tampa's defensive play has been pretty poor all season long. Now that Jonas Johansson is coming down to earth it is allowing a lot of goals against and working to outscore that flaw with a high powered offense.
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The Blues have not allowed as many goals against as expected this season and have not necessarily exhibited signs that they are due for worse results on that front. Even still, I want to fade them in that capacity here and target a higher scoring affair.
Big picture I still expect the Blues to trend toward being a team that allows a higher-than-average amount of goals against this season. The Bolts offensive superstars have played quite well and should be able to do damage in this matchup.
The Lightning's team total is set at 3.5 with even money to the over, while the game total is set at 6.5 and -110. Splitting a bet between both options is my favorite way to bet this matchup.
Pick: Tampa Bay Team Total Over 3.5 +100 (bet365) | Over 6.5 -110 (bet365)
