Kraken vs. Avalanche Game 1 Odds
| Kraken Odds | +164 |
| Avalanche Odds | -200 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (+110 / -134) |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
The Avalanche claimed first in the Central division with their win in game 82 over the Predators. The reward was avoiding a tough matchup against Minnesota in Round 1 and claiming a date with the Seattle Kraken, which many believe could be far easier.
So, what's our Kraken vs. Avalanche pick?
Despite being the second wild-card team, The Kraken did finish with 100 points and score the fourth-most goals in the NHL this season. They are the second-biggest underdog of the opening round at +250 to win the series and are being entirely written off by the vast majority.
Seattle Kraken
It may not entirely shine through in this very tough matchup against the defending champs, but the Kraken are arguably still a far more formidable wild-card team than most. Seattle finished the regular season with a 9-5-1 tear over its last 15 games. In those 15 games, the Kraken played to a stellar 57.45% expected goals rating, and that was 51.36% over the entire season.
Seattle consistently finished chances at a higher than expected rate this season finishing with a historically high shooting percentage of 10.36% at even strength and finished with an average of 3.52 goals per game.
The Kraken feature far more true scoring talent down the lineup than an average NHL team, with 12 players who scored 13 or more goals. They feature a very unique makeup with less truly elite talents than most playoff sides, but they were able to hide that flaw with a few below-replacement-level skaters who are getting regular ice time.
Names like Daniel Sprong, Eeli Tolvanen and Oliver Bjorkstrand are far better bottom six players than even most other playoff teams can offer and offer more scoring upside than even the Avs' bottom six. Jared McCann played like a true superstar with 40 goals, and he made up a strong top line playing next to Matty Beniers.
The greatest concern for Seattle was its goaltending trio which played to a -8.2 goals saved above expected (GSAx) rating. Phillip Grubauer will make tonight's start, and played to an .895 save percentage and 2.85 goals against average this season with a -0.7 GSAx.
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado is priced as the outright favorite to come out of the Western Conference, which is deserved so based upon its priors and ridiculous collection of star talent. When the games become meaningful, more minutes will be allotted to teams top stars, who will then influence results more than usual.
That fact makes the Avalanche an extremely dangerous candidate to repeat despite the fact that their overall depth is not what it was last season. Who can match the Avs' compilation of elite players with the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews and Valeri Nichushkin?
That's the greatest concern for the Kraken in this matchup, in which they'll look to win based upon roster depth.
Colorado's team play at times felt a little off down the stretch relative to usual, but health likely played a factor in that. With Cale Makar and Josh Manson both back in the mix, the Avs will have all six regular defenders healthy for this game.
The Avalanche took a risk letting last year's starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper walk this offseason as opposed to paying him the raise he was due. Their belief was likely vested in the idea that they did not want to pay up for a goaltender who's strong results were a product of a terrific defensive environment.
Alexandar Georgiev coming out of nowhere with a +21.9 GSAx and .918 save percentage in 62 appearances certainly proves their point, and he'll start tonight.
Kraken vs. Avalanche Pick
The Avalanche's top offensive stars will find ways to generate offense in essentially any matchup, and proved that last postseason. To see them hit a wall against a wild-card team with very weak goaltending would be quite surprising and likely will not happen Tuesday.
The Kraken scored the fourth-most goals in the league this season, and it seems they are garnering no respect for that with this total. They played some excellent hockey down the stretch, and I believe they could put up more of a fight than most people are expecting and generate some goals of their own.
A total of six is too low with how these teams have played this season, and considering Seattle's weakness in goal. I would bet 6 all the way down to -130.
Pick: Over 6 (-110, bet365)
