Kings vs. Lightning Odds
| Kings Odds | -115 |
| Lightning Odds | -104 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +104 / -128 |
The chances the Lightning snap their six-year playoff streak, which included two cup wins, continue to grow.
A long run of excellence has likely caused some inflated betting lines this season, as oddsmakers could be giving them more credit than they have truly earned based upon their priors. That might be the case Tuesday, as Los Angeles has put up a 13-3-1 mark on the road and offered a well-rounded overall game.
Los Angeles Kings
Throughout the course of an 82-game season, even the best sides struggle at some point, and oftentimes it simply comes down to the nature of variance in NHL hockey. Analyzing why a team is suffering through lesser results, and how they deserve to be power-rated moving forward is a critical part of handicapping.
The Kings enter tonight's game in the midst of a clear seasonal low point, having lost five straight with a mark of just 4-4-2 in the last 10. Even still, they own a 54.19 expected goals % in that period, which ranks ninth in the league. That mark is still lower than we have often seen the last two seasons, but it is still encouraging for a side that has not played their best.
Their losing streak is more or less fine from a game-by-game perspective. They lost a close game in Vegas on a traveling back-to-back; a shootout defeat versus the Oilers, who are rolling through every team with ease and could arguably be power-rated first right now; a 3-0 defeat at the hands of the red-hot Leafs, in what was the only notably poor performance; and tough-luck losses versus the Wings and Caps, which easily could've been comfortable wins with better fortune in front of goal.
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Where the Kings are at right now looks similar to what we saw from the Florida Panthers in December, when they lost four of five games while scoring just seven goals. The Kings have shot just 7% over the last 10 games, but their overall process looks fine aside from an unsustainable lack of finishing.
The Kings feature a strong 1-2-3 down the middle with Anze Kopitar, Philip Danault and Pierre-Luc Dubois. They are insulated well by a number of talented wingers, including elite offensive threats in Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala. The back end is deep and loaded with mobile puck-movers.
Nothing about their roster indicates that they are fraudulent, and the underlying results don't either. As long as Cam Talbot continues to play at a high level, the Kings deserved to be viewed as a legit cup contender.
Talbot is likely to get the start Tuesday. He has played to +10.4 GSAx and .923 save % in 26 appearances this season.
Tampa Bay Lightning
With a record of 19-17-5, the Lightning rank 22nd in the league in points percentage this season. That makes their betting record 19-22, and seeing as they have still often been favored, they have been one of the least profitable sides. As they are priced evenly here versus a well-constructed Kings side, it seems possible they are again being given too much credit.
The Lightning's current roster core has been dominant for several seasons, and it seems to be taking time for bettors and oddsmakers to adjust to their lesser play this season. The depth is far from what is once was though, and their overall defensive form has taken a significant hit as a result.
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In 41 games this season, the Lightning own the leagues 10th-worst xGA/60 at 3.41. In the 10 games prior to this matchup, that mark has actually trended upward to 3.44.
The Lightning's dropoff in defensive form relative to previous seasons might be most reflected in the lesser numbers from Andrei Vasilevskiy. He owns a +1.8 goals saved above expected rating, despite a .895 save % and 3.01 goals against average in 18 games played. He is highly probable to get the start Tuesday.
Erik Cernak was a full participant at Monday's practice, and is likely to return to the lineup Tuesday.
Kings vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Kings enter this matchup at a clear low point. They have finished at an unsustainably poor rate recently, and a tough schedule has helped exacerbate that fact. Nothing about their recent play suggests their rating needs to be downgraded considerably though. We see teams suffer through this kind of bad rut constantly in the NHL regular season, and oftentimes these sides are actually the ones providing more value.
The Kings' roster makeup still looks excellent, and as long as Talbot is playing like a legit No. 1 goaltender, they feature no significant flaws.
The Lightning continue to prove they aren't quite the same team as we have historically seen. Their defensive play has taken significant steps backward, which has helped cause far worse numbers from Vasilevskiy. A lack of depth has led to a far lesser control of play, and the Kings should be able to create more of the overall chances at even strength.
The Kings are clearly the more complete roster at this point, and they deserve to be a bigger favorite in this matchup — especially considering the way they have played on the road. Betting them at anything better than -120 provides value.
Pick: Kings Moneyline -115 | Play to -120
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