Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Islanders Odds | +125 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -150 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -120/ +100 |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday, Feb. 5 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The home stretch of the regular season gets underway with Monday's rivalry matchup as both sides enter off of lengthy eight-day layoffs.
New York can complete a season sweep with a win on Monday after winning each of the first two games 4-3 in overtime.
The new coach bounce hasn't paid off for the Islanders yet. They are just 1-2-1 in Patrick Roy's first four games. Still, they sit only four points back of the Flyers for the third Metropolitan spot with one game in hand.
The Maple Leafs entered the break with three straight victories, including back-t0-back wins over the league-leading Jets. Those wins made a positive statement toward improved defensive play, and they will look to avoid a letdown performance after a positive showing as All-Star weekend hosts.
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New York Islanders
Under former coach Dean Evason, the Islanders have spent the second most time in the defensive zone league-wide this season, and they were by no means covering up for that flaw with elite offensive play at the other end.
New coach Patrick Roy has stated his commitment to helping the Islanders turn play in the right direction, and they have some prolonged spells of offensive zone possession of their own.
While a 1-2-1 record might not make the case anything has gotten better, their process actually has looked improved so far. But some untimely breakdowns at the other end have hidden that. They have played to a 56.26% expected goal rating under Roy, which is a far cry from what we have seen all season in terms of any play-driving data.
Since taking over, Roy has clearly made a point to play his top stars huge minutes. Bo Horvat, Mat Barzal and Anders Lee have all skated past their season average in all four matchups under Roy while Brock Nelson has been past his average in three of four.
The Islanders playing in trailing game scripts has been a factor in that, but not enough to entirely account for the bump.
Barzal's offensive play has really stood out since the coaching change, and he has been rewarded with five points in the last four games. He remained on the top unit alongside Horvat and Lee at practice Sunday, a trio that owns an xGF% of 58.1 in 390.6 minutes together this season.
Ilya Sorokin will likely get the start on Monday. He has played to a .909 save % and 10.6 GAR in 35 appearances this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs will look to continue making the case for GM Brad Treliving that this is not a lost season. But they need some strong play in the coming weeks.
Their inconsistent efforts throughout December and early January led to a public statement from Treliving questioning if it was worth paying additional assets to bring in pieces for a potential Cup run this season.
Their wins over the Jets did raise some eyebrows, but ultimately those types of performances have been too scarce in the early going.
The Jets have allowed an average of 3.17 goals against, which is the 12th-highest mark in the league. Their xGA/60 ranks 17th at 3.18 over the entirety of the season, which is drastically worse than the majority of the Sheldon Keefe era.
(Next month, North Carolina sports betting is expected to be fully online. Keep up with the latest developments.)
Toronto's defensive play did trend upward throughout 13 January matchups as they posted a 2.84 xGA/60 while enjoying the luxury of a healthier blue line.
Realistically the Leafs will still need to bring in at least one quality defender to be somewhat respected in any Cup-contending discussion, but they might begin to be a little more than the afterthought most pundits consider them if Ilya Samsonov continues his strong recent play.
After being lit up for six goals on 21 shots on Dec. 29, Samsonov was sent down to the AHL, though he never actually skated in an AHL contest. His GSAx was the worst in the entire league at that point. He has silenced a lot of critics in the short term since returning, with a .938 save percentage across four starts.
Samsonov is confirmed as the Leafs starter for this matchup.
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Oftentimes we see some relatively sloppy games out of the All-Star break and bye weeks with players not quite fully engaged again after their in-season vacations. This rivalry matchup should draw the players' attention enough, though, that we still see a well-paced affair, even if perhaps there are a few more mistakes than normal.
The Islanders are spending less time in their defensive zone under Roy, and they have helped turn that extra possession into more chances at the other end. In time they should find better results offensively, and I believe they will generate some offense in this spot. At +1138 odds on the moneyline, the Islanders would be my lean, and I would not talk anybody out of a bet on the game to go Over 6.5 either.
Roy's heavy reliance on his top forwards should continue if this is close, which I expect it to be. Barzal and Horvat have responded well to the coaching change, combining for 32 shots and eight points in four games. While Barzal surely wasn't staying in at his hotel and recovering through much of the All-Star break in Toronto, he might still gain a slight leg up over players who spent their breaks golfing in Bermuda and the like.
Barzal is always going to feast in relatively open, faster-paced games in which he gets a little bit of extra skating room. He has enjoyed two previous matchups versus Toronto this season with five points and eight shots on goal, and I think that he will find a way to impact this game.
My favorite two looks are betting Barzal to record Over 1.5 points at +196 on FanDuel or backing him to record Over 2.5 shots at -134 (BetRivers). (Backing both Barzal and Horvat to get a point as a solid same-game parlay option.)
Picks: Mathew Barzal Over 1.5 Points +196 (FanDuel, Play to +185) | Over 2.5 SOG -134 (BetRivers, Play to -160)
