Flyers vs. Coyotes Odds
| Flyers Odds | +105 |
| Coyotes Odds | -118 |
| Over / Under | 6 -110 / -108 |
The Coyotes are in the midst of an impressive five-game winning streak, which has included victories over each of the past five Stanley Cup champions. They continue to make Mullett Arena a tough building for opponents and are 8-4-0 on home ice.
The Flyers are far from a recent champion, but have also significantly overachieved expectations this season with a 13-10-2 record. So, let's get to my prediction for Flyers vs. Coyotes.
Philadelphia Flyers
John Tortorella is getting the majority of the credit for the Flyers overachievement thus far, but its worth noting that his roster isn't nearly as bad as some people make it seem. Sean Couturier is healthy and playing like a true number one center again and a number of high draft picks — Bobby Brink, Joel Farabee, Owen Tippett and Morgan Frost — have taken steps forward.
My point isn't to say that Tortorella hasn't done a great job maximizing the effectiveness of his players, but to call attention to the fact that strong coaching is coinciding with a quietly decent roster.
In the past 10 games, Philadelphia owns a 50.69% expected goals rating at even strength. That mark is actually down from a sample of the whole season, where it owns the seventh-best mark (53.49%).
Whichever line Couturier has centered has found success this season. Recently, Tortorella has deployed Couturier with Tyson Foerster and Travis Konecny and the trio owns a 59.5% expected goals rating in 99.3 minutes together. They have allowed only 1.81 goals against per 60.
Noah Cates is the Flyers only relevant injury, but his absence doesn't hurt as much because both Frost and Farabee should remain in the lineup.
Carter Hart has played to a -0.7 GSAx and a .913 save % in 15 games this season. He can still be viewed as a better than average starting option, and should get the start Thursday.
Arizona Coyotes
With a number of NHL mainstays on the IR, such as top line center Barrett Hayton, what the Arizona Coyotes have done recently is especially impressive.
They have received out of this world goaltending from Connor Ingram lately and own a powerplay clicking at 26.8%.
Those strengths have helped hide a 45.5% expected goals share at even strength in the past 10 games.
Arizona has generated only 2.31 xGF/60 at even strength in that span, which is not overly surprising considering the current roster situation. The Coyotes have greatly outscored expectations and are due for some regression.
With Logan Cooley now playing up on the top line, there isn't a ton of talent spread among the bottom units. As a result, it's not surprising to see the underlying results suggest that this run isn't likely to continue.
Another concern for the Coyotes is the status of Sean Durzi, who is listed as day-to-day. Durzi has been a crucial piece of the Coyotes excellent top powerplay unit.
Connor Ingram owns a +12.2 GSAx and a .930 save percentage in 15 games this season. His +12.2 GSAx ranks second in the league to only Adin Hill. That could be viewed as a negative as some may feel he's unlikely to be the second-best goalie in the league for the rest of the season and that regression is looming.
Flyers vs. Coyotes
Betting Pick & Prediction
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The Flyers continue to be a scrappy, irritating team to play against at even strength. They have supported their goaltenders with strong defensive work and might receive better results from Hart. Their roster is underrated, particularly in terms of depth among the forward core. Couturier's line is capable of being an eraser in minutes against opposing stars, which could be valuable in this matchup.
Philadelphia should take the ice at full health, while Arizona is missing several key pieces. The recent underlying results suggest the Flyers will actually outplay a depleted Coyotes' lineup at even strength, despite an underdog price tag.
The Coyotes have been winning despite sub-par even-strength play due to out of this world goaltending from Ingram, and an electric top powerplay unit. Both of those strengths are likely to regress in time, while the current strengths of the Flyers might be more sustainable.
Its also worth nothing that Philadelphia has been excellent on the road (7-4-1).
The Flyers deserve to be a slight favorite here. Assuming Ingram starts for Arizona, the Flyers' moneyline is worth a bet down to -105. If we end up with a surprise start for Karel Vejmelka, I'd bet the Flyers down to -110.
Pick: Philadephia Flyers Moneyline +105 (Play to -105)
