Flames vs. Jets Odds
| Flames Odds | +110 |
| Jets Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 6 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
With just four games remaining Calgary sits two points back of Winnipeg for the Western Conference's final playoff spot.
As Winnipeg holds a game in hand, Wednesday's contest is essentially a do-or-die spot for the Flames.
Per MoneyPuck.com's model, Calgary will have a 1% of getting in if it loses this game in regulation but would have a 31.7% chance of getting in with a regulation victory.
Winnipeg is priced as a -135 favorite to claim the crucial two points.
Calgary Flames
The Flames' shocking season is likely nearing a very disappointing finish, as their 4-3 loss to the Blackhawks could potentially be the final nail in the coffin.
A lack of urgency from the majority of the team was not the greatest problem against Chicago as a few glaring turnovers led to easy goals for the Blackhawks that could not be overcome.
In general Calgary's defensive play has remained extremely solid of late, which has been hidden by what has been very poor goaltending. Over the last 10 games, it has played to an xGA/60 of 2.81.
While Chicago technically did only generate 2.84 Expected Goals Tuesday, a quick viewing of the highlights will show that in this case Markstrom was not the problem, as all four goals were very reasonable.
However, Thomas Drance is reporting that Darryl Sutter will turn to backup Dan Vladar for the team's biggest game of the season.
Whether it works or not, I would say that Sutter is making the correct decision as opposed to going back-to-back with Markstrom. Markstrom has consistently let in a number of soft goals over his last handful of starts, and he now owns a -7.7 GSAx rating on the season.
Vladar's -8.4 GSAx and .892 Save Percentage are both actually worse, but I would argue his "A" game this year has been better than Markstrom's.
Winnipeg Jets
After a disappointing 3-0 loss in San Jose, Jets coach Rick Bowness called out his top stars for not giving the team all they had. The move has seemingly worked, as over the last two games Winnipeg has managed 12 goals for and all of its top stars have gotten in on the action.
Defensively, Winnipeg has been displaying extremely solid form recently, which has allowed Connor Hellebuyck to find his game after a small downswing.
Over the last 10 games, Winnipeg has played to a 2.48 xGA/60, which is the second-best mark in the entire league over that span.
Throughout much of Hellebuyck's Jets tenure and even at times this season, he has been forced to deal with an alarming amount of quality chances and carry the team.
If the Jets improved recent defensive play continues, it could become an interesting team heading to the postseason icing one of the league's very best netminders.
Hellebuyck has played to a +25 GSAx rating and a .918 Save Percentage in 60 games this season.
Flames vs. Jets Pick
In general, higher scoring hockey happens because individuals made costly mistakes rather than offensive players generating a look which could not possibly be stopped otherwise.
So compared to basketball, if the best offensive players in the NBA make certain shots, you can't really do anything but tip your cap as a defender. Hockey is closer to the reverse, where if teams defend properly as a unit, scoring anything but extremely ugly goals at even strength becomes very tough, and I believe that is a good thing to note heading to the postseason.
Calgary's costly breakdowns cost it an easy two points last night, and perhaps some of the aggressive mindset put in place playing a horrible Chicago team was part of the concern.
The Flames' highest priority tonight will be avoiding those kinds of costly mistakes in a matchup which will play like a playoff game, as it's unlikely either team scores more than three or four goals.
Defensively, it is very reasonable to trust the Flames to clean up those mistakes and offer Dan Vladar a chance to thrive, as the Flames do still rate extremely well defensively.
Generating much offense on a rested Winnipeg team with an elite goaltender in the mix should prove extremely tough, however, and I think this sets up as a favorable spot to target a low scoring, hard fought contest.
Backing unders in Flames games considering the kind of goaltending they have received is not overly fun, but this matchup should have exactly the kind of game play we want for a lower total.
Pick: Under 6 (-108) |
