Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Odds
| Avalanche Odds | -118 |
| Golden Knights Odds | +102 |
| Over / Under | 6 -115 / -105 |
The oddsmakers' favorites in the Western Conference will meet Saturday in Vegas. Both are worthy of that title based upon their excellent early starts to the season. Vegas has posted a 10-0-1 record to open the season, which is the best start by any defending champion in NHL history. Yet they are still slight home underdogs to the Avalanche, who have looked excellent thus far and own a mark of 7-2-0.
Let's preview this heavyweight clash with our Avalanche vs. Golden Knights prediction and picks for tonight.
Colorado Avalanche
The most important note regarding the Avalanche's start is that all of their stars are healthy and playing at an elite level. Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, and Devon Toews are all playing exceptionally well and make up a group of superstars nobody else can offer.
Everything seems to be right with Valeri Nichushkin to start the campaign as well, which was one of the more notable concerns for the team this offseason.
Colorado owns a 57.35% expected goal rating this year, which is the third best mark in the league. It owns a +11 goal differential, which has come versus an average strength of schedule.
Colorado has some flaws in terms of offensive depth relative to other cup contenders. The Jonathon Drouin project has not panned out, and the insulation for their top stars does not compare to Vegas. As long as they aren't getting crushed in bottom six minutes, the Avalanche will still project as one of the best teams in the league.
The Avalanche made a great bet bringing in Alexander Georgiev last season opposed to paying for former starter Darcy Kuemper. He was excellent in the 2022-23 season, and he has followed that up with great play this year. Georgiev owns a +5.4 GSAx and .915 save %. He should get the start Saturday.
Vegas Golden Knights
It's hard to knock any team sitting at 10-0-1 that just won the Stanley Cup. People seem to be viewing the Knights as the runaway best team in the league though, and my contention is simply that they are one of a few.
The Knights have played against the softest schedule in the NHL thus far, and own an expected goal share of 49.97% across all strengths. That mark goes to 47% in 5-on-5 play.
There's more to hockey than numbers, and the Knights defensive structure under Bruce Cassidy is unquestionably sound. However, their goaltenders are still benefitting from a better defensive environment than those numbers indicate. Winning every game versus soft competition in near coin-flip fashion is a little unheard of though, and the eye-test would agree with their modest underlying results.
My case here, though, is not that Vegas is better than those numbers suggest. But they are likely receiving more credit than they deserve because of the eye-popping record — and owning the league's third best shooting percentage doesn't hurt.
The Knights goaltending tandem owns a combined +9.6 GSAx and .926 save % thus far. It seems crazy to say it after watching Adin Hill's dominance last playoffs, but in terms of handicapping, it is not overly relevant if he or Logan Thompson starts Saturday.
Adin Hill should be more likely to get the start though, as he certainly remains the team's #1 option. He owns a +2.7 GSAx, .923 save % in six appearances.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights
Betting Pick & Prediction
When you consider that the 10-0-1 defending champions are a home underdog here, some people may view this as a smash spot to bet the Knights. Win-loss Records aside though, the Avalanche have made a more convincing case than the Knights in the early going of this season.
The Avalanche lack depth in their forward corps compared to Vegas, and there are some struggling pieces getting ice time up front. But they cover that with an absurd combination of elite talents at the top of the lineup, and those top stars have been able to carry the team to a more impressive overall process than we have seen from the Knights.
The end of last season got ugly in Colorado for various reasons, but that shouldn't change the fact that the Avs' true roster talent deserves to be rated right there with the Knights.
It's easy to coast when you're the defending champs and collecting two points every night. Maybe the Knights bring a little more of a complete effort to this matchup. Considering that the Avs have displayed a better overall process though, and that you can rate their roster right up there with the Knights, -115 is a playable number to bet the Avalanche on Saturday.
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