For the first time in NHL history, we have a 16-game slate on what is the last Saturday of 2022-23 NHL regular season.
Here are my favorite looks from this giant slate and the logic behind each one.
NHL Best Bets For Saturday, April 8
Clayton Keller Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125)
| Team vs. Team | Ducks vs. Coyotes |
| Puck Drop | 5:30 ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Despite entering this matchup in the midst of a nine-game losing streak, Arizona still sits well ahead of four NHL sides in the standings and is vastly overachieving most preseason expectations as a result.
The Coyotes have played with a particularly high level of pride on home ice, where it has managed a shockingly strong 20-14-4 record.
Arguably the greatest reason why Arizona is overachieving compared to other lottery-bound sides is the play of Clayton Keller, who has been dominant with 83 points in 79 games and continues to play well alongside Nick Schmaltz.
Keller gets a tremendous matchup Saturday at home versus the Ducks. Anaheim has been historically bad on several fronts and rightfully sits in dead last with a -124 goal differential.
In particular, Anaheim has defended incredibly poorly has allowed an average of 40 shots per 60 minutes this season.
Arizona's top even-strength line of Keller, Schmaltz and either Barrett Hayton or Jack McBain should be able to generate a wealth of scoring chances in this spot.
This game is more likely to stay somewhat close than most Ducks contests, which is another positive note, as Coyotes coach Andre Tourigny will give Keller more ice time in close or trailing situations.
Backing Keller to score a goal at +162 is a very solid look as well, particularly if you can't get over 2.5 shots at a very good price relative to the market.
Pick: Clayton Keller Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Carter Verhaeghe Any Time Goal (+160)
| Team vs. Team | Panthers vs. Capitals |
| Puck Drop | 7 pm ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Washington has lost five consecutive games and has looked particularly awful in the contests coming after its tough 4-3 loss in Pittsburgh on March 25, which essentially ended any hopes of a surprising playoff berth.
This is an older team that seems entirely checked out at this point and is seemingly just skating out the season under a coach who will not return next season in Peter Laviolette.
Over its last five games, Washington has allowed 4.22 xGA/60 and has sneakily become one of the league's worst defensive sides in recent weeks.
That makes it an excellent target for our guy in Carter Verhaeghe, who has continued to generate a wealth of scoring chances with an average of 4.37 shots on goal per game over his last 15 matchups.
Verhaeghe essentially ended the Caps' season in last year's playoffs with his six goals and 12 points in six games and has tortured the Caps this regular season with two goals and four points in two games.
Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk are both excellent targets in this matchup and could be especially likely to turn chances into actual goals with Caps backup Charlie Lindgren confirmed as the starter.
Panthers coach Paul Maurice should lean on the top two units to do damage extremely heavily in this extremely important spot, and we can expect Verhaeghe to play significantly more minutes than he saw in Thursday's blowout versus Ottawa.
A price of +160 is excellent for a 40-goal scorer skating in such a strong matchup, and I would back Verhaeghe to score down to +145.
If you're unable to secure a very good number on Verhaeghe to score, over 3.5 shots on goal or over 1.5 points are also good options.
Pick: Carter Verhaeghe Any Time Goal (+160) |
Rafael Harvey-Pinard Any Time Goal (+300) · Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-174)
| Team vs. Team | Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs |
| Puck Drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Harvey-Pinard has quietly been generating a ton of chances offensively over his last six games, with 17 shots on goal and five goals throughout that span. He's been a bright spot for Habs fans as Montreal finishes up a developing season.
His underlying numbers have been tremendous, and he continues to be the common denominator on Montreal's lines, which are not getting caved in during five-on-five play.
He has rightfully earned a spot on the top power-play unit as well, which has helped his surge in offensive chances.
Toronto is a tough matchup, but Harvey-Pinard has been trending well past 1.5 shots on goal recently. That should continue considering how his usage and ability to drive play into the offensive zone.
Playing 3/4 of the stake on this bet on over 1.5 shots on goal at -174 and the other 1/4 on any-time goalscorer is the way I will be approaching it, but both bets hold stand-alone value.
Pick: Rafael Harvey-Pinard Any Time Goal (+300) · Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-174)
