The Eastern Conference Final has made for can't miss television thus far. With the series tied at two, we arrive at Madison Square Garden for Game 5.
So, I'll outline my NHL best bets and Panthers vs. Rangers Game 5 pick below.
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +215 | 5.5 112o / -138u | -125 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -265 | 5.5 112o / -138u | +104 |
The first two games of this matchup were evenly contested, and it was more than fair that the series shifted to Sunrise tied at one game a piece. However, the two games in Florida looked far different and the Rangers certainly have to be relieved to return home tied at two.
The Rangers will need to bring a much sharper effort tonight if they want to avoid heading back to Florida on the brink of elimination.
The Panthers carried drastically more of the play in Games 3 and 4. The Panthers generated 76 shots on goal compared to the Rangers total of just 39.
Shot quality matters more than quantity, which is typically a reason why New York is better than most numbers suggest. That being said, it was very clear the Panthers generated a ton of true grade "A" chances in those games and that Igor Shesterkin covered up a ton of defensive breakdowns from the Rangers.
The Panthers had 33 high-danger chances in Games 3 and 4 and generated 7.59 expected goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers had 14 and 3.88.
Goalies are part of the team too, and by no means do the Rangers need to apologize for having the league's best in Shesterkin. Even accounting for how incredibly good Shesterkin is, it's hard to say the Rangers will win Game 5 without putting together a far sharper performance in many key areas.
The Panthers aggressive forecheck caused a ton of problems for the Rangers in Games 3 and 4 and helped Florida own far more of the overall possession. Adam Fox is rumored to be playing through a fairly significant injury, and that speculation looked accurate during Fox's shaky Game 4 performance.
The Panthers were one of the best even strength teams in the league this season. They feature an excellent top two defensive pairings and a forward group that's excellent at controlling play in all three zones.
Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart are three of the best two-way forwards in the game and a big reason why the Rangers' stars couldn't generate anything over the past two games.
In all likelihood, the Rangers will find a way to play better tonight at home, where they have been tremendous all season.
It's likely going to take more than a venue change to prevent the Panthers from owning much of the overall play and while the Rangers have been one of few sides that seems to own a legitimate home-ice advantage, there is still just as much of an argument that says the Panthers are equally strong on the road.
Florida is 13-6 on the road over the past two postseasons — a 56.5% ROI.
The Rangers will always be a tough out because of Shesterkin, and their talented offensive pieces can make the most of limited opportunities. They also haven't yet seen their power play click at it's top level in this series, another argument in their favor.
Still, I believe the Panthers deserve to be a bigger favorite in this matchup and are worthy of a bet to -130.
Best Bet: Panthers Moneyline -125 (Bet365, Play to -130)
Igor Shesterkin to Win the Conn Smythe Trophy (Playoff MVP) +550 (Bet365/FanDuel)
While I've just made the case that I like the Panthers in tonight's game, my argument is simply that Florida deserves to be a larger favorite than it is. That's far from saying there isn't a reasonable chance the Rangers will win the game, which is an important concept to grasp as a bettor.
So while it may seem to counteract my thoughts on tonight's game, my belief is that there's still some value backing Shesterkin to win the Conn Smythe trophy. The Rangers are +380 to win the Stanley Cup and Shesterkin is +550 to win the Conn Smythe.
The gap between those prices is far too wide because of how far away any Rangers' skater is from Shesterkin in this race, and the way that the rest of the playoffs are likely to go.
Vincent Trocheck is the only other Ranger with a case even in the same vicinity of Shesterkin as he has 19 points and eight goals this postseason.
Steady offensive production doesn't hold a candle to Shesterkin's +10.2 GSAx and .923 save % in 14 playoff games. Shesterkin is going to need to continue playing at an elite level for the Rangers to win it all, and it seems reasonable to believe he can.
If you took away Shesterkin for the Cup Final or from tonight's game it would move the betting prices significantly more than an absence from Trocheck would, and for good reason.
Trusting NHL voters (PWHA) can be a little scary at times, but Shesterkin's brilliance seems painfully obvious, and it seems pretty safe to say that if the Rangers win the Cup, he'll take home the Conn Smythe.
