The Toronto Maple Leafs are in desperate need of a win as they look to avoid an 0-3 deficit on Sunday. There is cause for optimism given how Toronto has played in the opening two contests, and I am going to bank on things going Toronto's way with this same game parlay.
Same Game Parlay: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers
The Parlay (+450 at Bet365)
- Maple Leafs Moneyline
- William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
- William Nylander Anytime Goalscorer
Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline
If not for some ill-timed lapses and tough luck in front of goal, the Leafs could be up 2-0 in this series.
Toronto owns a 36-19 edge in high-danger chances. The Maple Leafs have controlled play to a 59.8% expected goals rating. The disparity in play has looked as wide as those numbers suggest.
There has been lots of talk about Florida's elite forecheck and how it has given Toronto problems. I do not dispute that, and Florida's offense has been well-earned.
However, Toronto is still creating more at the other end and causing problems for Florida. That has been hidden by tough puck luck and unsustainably strong goaltending, but we should not count on that continuing.
Sergei Bobrovsky's +5.92 goals saved above expected rating is the best two-game mark he has put up in five years. The Leafs hitting five goal posts in a two-game span has contributed to that statistical anomaly.
Toronto has finished off chances at an unsustainably low rate, particularly given who is getting the Leafs best chances. Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares have all had eye-popping individual scoring chance numbers.
A similar performance should mean a better result for Toronto tonight. With the Leafs' season on the line, I think they will bounce back.
William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal and Anytime Goalscorer
It is clear that the Leafs are due to breakout with a four- or five-goal performance, and the most likely candidate to do some damage is Nylander.
He has generated 2.06 expected goals from 13 shots on goal in this series. Those marks rank first on the team. Furthermore, his 13 total shots do not include the two goal posts hit late in Game 2. Seven of those shots have come from the inner slot.
Nylander scored 40 goals this season and is a proven finisher. If he continues to generate chances at such a high rate, then the break through will come.
