Toronto will look to avoid adding another year to its long list of recent playoff disappointments Wednesday night in Sunrise.
Check out my same game parlay for the Leafs vs. Panthers Game 4 below — including picks for Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Joseph Woll — as the Leafs look to avoid elimination.
Same Game Parlay: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers
The Parlay (+475 at Bet365)
- Auston Matthews Over 4.5 Shots on Goal
- William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
- Joseph Woll Under 29.5 Saves
The Panthers' defensive play is not the reason they're likely to advance to the Eastern Conference final. They have a great goaltender in Sergei Bobrovsky and can make opponents pay with their ability to create turnovers in critical areas of the ice.
They've also allowed 33.5 shots against per 60 this postseason, which is the third-worst rate of all 16 playoff teams.
The Leafs will bring a desperate effort tonight and will likely find a way to generate similar shot outputs as Games 1 and 2. My belief is that Toronto will lead this game in terms of overall shot attempts and time spent in the offensive zone.
Those strengths may not lead to a Leafs win, however, with Joseph Woll battling Bobrovsky. If Toronto ends up trailing and is forced to continue pushing for offense to avoid elimination, it would set our same game parlay up nicely.
Auston Matthews Over 4.5 Shots on Goal
It's logical that the Leafs' top stars bring a better performance tonight and find a way to put a lot of attempts on goal. The Leafs, as a whole, were lifeless in Game 3, and Matthews' partner in crime, Mitch Marner, was particularly dreadful.
Matthews himself managed just two shots on goal from four attempts, but that was an anomaly in terms of his recent averages.
Matthews had 12 shots on goal in the first two games coming from a ridiculous total of 22 attempts. He has put up 22.6 shot attempts per 60 in 201 minutes this postseason. I believe we'll see him go out firing in tonight's matchup.
William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
Nylander will skate on a second line with Alex Kerfoot and John Tavares, which has not fared very well together this postseason. That's not ideal for this bet.
We can look away from that when considering the positives to this play, though, particularly in the game script we're targeting. He has clearly been the most dynamic Leafs forward for anybody who has paid close attention to this series.
His average of 13.6 shots on goal per 60 is fifth-highest of any skater who has played 100 minutes this playoff.
At times, his time on ice average has been concerning, but I don't expect that to be the case tonight. Nylander has been one of the more consistent Leafs in these do-or-die spots historically. If he players well early, head coach Sheldon Keefe should use him heavily.
Joseph Woll Under 29.5 Saves
A saves mark of 29.5 is relatively high if the Leafs spend more of the time attacking in the offensive zone as we're hoping.
The Panthers generated just 29 attempts on goal in Game 3 when they were dominating. It's logical to expect the Leafs to find a sharper defensive contest in this matchup and keep the Panthers' shot total fairly low.
Goaltending is hard to project, but Woll is fairly unproven and likely won't steal the Leafs this contest. If the Panthers get some quality looks early, that could easily mean a multi-goal Florida lead. That'll likely lead to even fewer Panthers shots coming Woll's way.
