Will tonight be the night that Toronto finally ends its nightmarish 19-year skid of not winning a playoff round?
It certainly might be. But the Lightning were likely the better team in Games 3 and 4, and they will surely put up a fight in a possible elimination Game 5 tonight (7 p.m. ET, TBS).
If the Lightning do manage to win tonight, I think this parlay is live since it involves props highly correlated to a Lightning victory.
We could luck into cashing at +1100 on bet365 on this game script.
I’ll note that in games that go past regulation, bet365 counts overtime shots on goal, blocks and saves toward player-prop and SGP markets.
However, despite using the phrase “anytime,” goals do not count for anytime scorer markets if they come past regulation on bet365.
It would be much more user-friendly to use the term "regulation" for bet365's goalscorer market since that's how their goalscorer bets are graded. Assists recorded on overtime winners count toward point and assist markets, however.
Same-game Parlay: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
The Parlay (+1100 at bet365):
- Tampa Bay moneyline
- Brayden Point over 2.5 shots on goal and over 0.5 points
- Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 shots on goal and over 1.5 points
Tampa Bay moneyline
It almost feels like it has to be Toronto's time to finally win a playoff series, right? Maybe so. But I think a huge reason why that's the case is the Leafs are finally getting some breaks.
Even still, I would rather bet on a +140 underdog that is controlling more of the overall play. So far in this series, Tampa has played to a 51.63% expected goals rating, and the Bolts were very clearly the better side for the vast majority of the two matchups in Tampa.
I talked yesterday in this piece about how paying a home-ice tax in the NHL playoffs is not necessarily smart betting practice, as there is no actual evidence that it matters. That's been the case in this series in particular.
Toronto is 1-1 on home ice so far this year and was 2-2 on home ice in last year's playoff against Tampa. The Lightning closed as slight favorites in Game 3 at -115 and are now priced at +140 despite arguably being the better team yet again.
Brayden Point over 2.5 shots on goal + over 0.5 points
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 shots on goal and over 1.5 points
Kucherov will skate big minutes in this matchup alongside Point, and when one does damage, the other usually follows. Whether the duo remains on a stacked top line with Steven Stamkos or whether Lightning coach Jon Cooper spreads the talent around a little more, I think we will see Point and Kucherov remain very productive.
Kucherov has put up six points in four games this series with multi-point games in two of four. His only game with zero came in a blowout Game 2 in which he skated 17 minutes. Unless tonight's matchup is a surprising blowout in favor of the Lightning, I think Kucherov breaks the 20-minute mark.
If you're looking to entertain a similar look that does not need Tampa Bay to win, that could be another reasonable option. At that point, my favorite adjustment would be sliding in Morgan Rielly to go over 1.5 shots on goal to bump it back up to +1100.
