NFL Week 12 opens with an AFC clash between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football.
That's where I begin my Week 12 picks, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 12 Odds & Picks
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 12 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Bills vs Texans
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
While it seemed impossible after their 0-3 start to the season, the Houston Texans are now the No. 1 defense in football — just in time to take on the No. 4 scoring offense.
Houston's secondary came into the season with lofty expectations, and now that it's found a relatively clean bill of health it's risen to the top of the league in DVOA. The Texans have lost safety Jalen Pitre to an injury, however, but there aren't too many concerns for me on that side of the ball.
Where the issue lies is offensively without the injured C.J. Stroud. This is already a rushing attack that's been arguably the worst in the league, and now Houston will have to lean on it with Davis Mills back under center.
Can it work? I mean, the Bills have a bottom five run defense, but the Texans are now starting Woody Marks in the backfield with all other hope lost. He was ineffective last week against Tennessee, but suddenly Nick Chubb has emerged as a formidable back as a non-starter?
I don't know, man, I think it's a lot of points to spot a solid defense but I don't think Houston can move the ball. I'd lean towards the home 'dogs.
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Passes
Browns vs Raiders
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 36 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 36 -110o / -110u | -210 |
This week in "No thank you, absolutely not," we have the 2-8 Browns and 2-8 Raiders in the late window. Shedeur Sanders will likely start with Dillon Gabriel still being held out of practice, and we really have no idea what to do with him after going 4-of-16 last week even if he did lead a decent drive late.
The Raiders' secondary has been surprisingly potent this year, and it's also ranked in the middle of the league in takeaways per game. Those are two key factors against Sanders, and on the other side of the coin the Browns have led the league in interception rate and will torment poor Geno Smith in the pocket all day long.
The Browns bring a ton of pressure, and Smith has faced plenty of it with the state of his offensive line. It hasn't gone well, and now he's going to have to navigate a ball-hawking defense. If you think Sanders is better than his Week 11 stint, then you should probably bet Cleveland, but I'm just not that interested.
Verdict: Pass
Falcons vs Saints
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
I just don't know what to expect here out of Kirk Cousins. He is 37 years old and has likely spent the entire season planning out how he's going to spend the megadeal he signed as he watched the Falcons play from the sideline.
Last week was a game, I guess.
Cousins went 6-for-14 for a measly 48 yards, but a lot of those throws came down the stretch in big spots as Atlanta looked to navigate a nailbiter.
The Saints' secondary has been bad, sure, but the defense has stopped the run and should put the pressure on Cousins to make plays. Can he? Sure, he can, but will you bet on that? Would you rather lay the points with Tyler Shough, who's looked OK at quarterback? Neither sounds all that appealing.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Steelers vs Bears
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Aaron Rodgers got in a pretty decent practice on Thursday after suffering a wrist fracture last week, and it seems he's trending towards playing against Chicago with a brace of some sort on his non-throwing hand.
That's a big deal for a Steelers team which throws at the 12th-most frequent clip in the league, but considering their heavy use of the checkdown with Rodgers it's unlikely to make the impact many anticipate.
The Bears own the ninth-worst pass defense by DVOA and while they haven't faced a huge number of passing plays they've helped opponents make the most of them in allowing 7.8 yards per attempt to rank 29th in the NFL.
What concerns me here is that the Bears are normally beaten by the deep ball, allowing the sixth-lowest checkdown rate in the league, and they also own the ninth-best tackling grade according to Pro Football Focus. I don't know if the Steelers will find any sort of consistency with the run game in constant flux, but hey, the Bears are bad against the run.
Chicago's got two impact linebackers on the injury report, though, so there's really not enough here to make a firm call. I'd lean towards the Bears, however, because even with Rodgers it's going to be an uphill battle for the offense.
Verdict: Lean Bears -2.5
Seahawks vs Titans
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | +650 |
There are plenty of issues with the Titans right now, but it's worth noting that Calvin Ridley is now injured and defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons isn't looking good to play on Sunday. Those are arguably the two biggest impact players this team has, and safety Xavier Woods — who also missed practice Thursday — is another one of their better defenders.
So, no, I don't think there's a miracle brewing in Tennessee. One of the league's worst defenses has only grown weaker, and Seattle owns arguably the best passing offense in football. The offense is always going to be hard to read with a rookie quarterback, and facing a slew of competent defenses in a row only makes it harder, but this really shouldn't be a game which the Titans are in at any point.
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NFL Week 12 Picks
Vikings vs Packers
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
Injuries are coming fast for the Packers. The loss of Tucker Kraft for the season two weeks ago was devastating enough, especially after losing Jayden Reed, and now Josh Jacobs looks unlikely to play in Week 12 after picking up an injury last Sunday.
Though there are several other names to pop up every week, those are the big losses we can expect this week, and they sure are killing this offense in real time. Green Bay put up 27 on a bad Giants defense last week, but prior to that had totaled just 26 points against the Panthers and Eagles. A team which relies heavily upon the run will now have to take on a solid Vikings run defense without Jacobs, and with that I think the Packers are in some trouble.
Their own run defense has failed them on too many occasions, and Minnesota has gotten a ton out of former Packer Aaron Jones this season. While they're normally centered around deep passing, a balanced approach here should help J.J. McCarthy and company move the ball on this defense and create a close one.
Verdict: Bet Vikings +6.5
Patriots vs Bengals
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
Well, it looks like Joe Burrow might play in Week 12. He practiced in full with the starters on Wednesday and Thursday, leaving us with the possibility that he leads 3-7 Cincinnati into a game it needs to win to keep hopes alive of a playoff berth.
New England allows passing plays almost exclusively, which is what we generally see out of dominant teams — particularly with a sturdy run defense. New England's allowed the fewest yards per game on the ground but has ranked just 24th in completion percentage and 17th in yards per attempt, making this a surprisingly-soft landing spot for Burrow.
The Patriots may not have Austin Hooper or Rhamondre Stevenson healthy here as the two have been limited at practice, so that could aid one of the worst run defenses in football — but not too much. I expect plenty of runs out of New England, which could theoretically lead itself to an Under at this number, but I still like the Bengals' offense in this one.
Verdict: Bet Over 51
Colts vs Chiefs
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
It happens every year; you blink and the Chiefs' record is ahead of the eye test. Well, that's what we'll be saying in three weeks after Patrick Mahomes takes down the Colts, Cowboys and Texans to bring Kansas City to 8-5.
It's not that I am selling off my Colts shares, but I think we need to have a conversation about this defense. They've allowed 58 points in the last two weeks after acquiring Sauce Gardner and Bradley Chubb, and now they sit 17th in overall DVOA on that side of the ball.
Kansas City's secondary, meanwhile, has been legit. They grade out as third in coverage according to PFF and have jumped up to 11th in DVOA after a sluggish start. The injury report has shortened dramatically, which is one of the reasons for this, and speaking of which Xavier Worthy was able to make it back to practice.
I don't think he plays, but it's pretty irrelevant. These are two defenses trending in opposite directions, and in the Chiefs' case they've done a solid job in the last two weeks to score on the Bills and Broncos even in losing efforts. This will be a step down in competition and I expect Kansas City to fly.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs -3.5
Jets vs Ravens
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -950 |
The Jets have been a better team than their 2-8 record, and the evidence is in their 5-5 record against the spread. It's not like they're even an average team, but they have put together a solid run defense this year and the defense has only seemed to get better since trading away two starters. Quincy Williams has returned to form at linebacker and this young talent up front has shined.
The Ravens have been running the ball well again ever since Lamar Jackson's return, but it could be a bit more difficult with New York limiting the Patriots to 65 yards on the ground last week and trending up. The secondary has been a bit more of a liability, sure, but we should see a more subdued Baltimore offense if it can't establish the run.
Well, two touchdowns is a tough sell in that case because this Ravens defense has been a disappointment all year. I mean, sure, it looked good against the Dolphins and Browns, but who wouldn't? The Jets have run the ball well all year and the Ravens have struggled up front. I don't really think Tyrod Taylor makes any sort of impact under center in a game which should feature a lot of run plays, if anything the slight improvement in the passing game makes up for the loss of Justin Fields in the run game. Bet the Jets.
Verdict: Bet Jets +13.5
Jaguars vs Cardinals
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
The Cardinals have continued to shine in the secondary and in few other areas of the game. The offense did look good under Jacoby Brissett for a brief moment prior to Marvin Harrison Jr.'s injury and a tough one-two punch of the Seahawks and 49ers on the schedule, and now a mediocre Jaguars defense awaits.
Jacksonville's been dominant in the run game on both sides of the ball, but it's almost always going to lose the battle through the air. That makes this game one I'd like to play, because only two teams are throwing more than the Cardinals and there are maybe one or two teams that have been worse on the ground. The Jaguars' run defense should make no impact in this game, and while Arizona's metrics aren't exactly great against the run it's at least allowed a respectable 4.3 yards per carry.
I think the Cardinals can win this game at home; I'm not writing off the offense after facing two tough opponents and I am very ready to write off the Jags' offense.
Verdict: Bet Cardinals +3
Eagles vs Cowboys
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
We know the Cowboys can score; they've done more of it than all but one team in football. The offense comes almost exclusively via the pass, even with the team averaging a hefty 4.9 yards per carry, and while that's a benefit to an Eagles team that has a much harder time against the run, it's far from a safety net.
Yes, I know Jared Goff struggled last week, but it was always going to be a tough matchup given his tendency to throw short and the Eagles' league-leading 56.6% completion percentage allowed. Dallas has the ability to go a bit more vertical in the passing game and should fare better.
Are we sure the Eagles can score, though? They've mustered up just 26 points in the last two weeks and their offensive line — which has been a disappointment — is now down starting right tackle Lane Johnson and starting center Cam Jurgens is looking unlikely to play as well. Dallas' pass rush has survived this year without Micah Parsons — and has wildly exceeded all expectations — so this line will be under the gun.
Even though Dallas has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league, the Eagles' offense has looked lifeless. There's nothing happening in the ground game and with further trauma to the offensive line in the form of injuries I don't think points are a guarantee.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys +3
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Sunday Night Football
Buccaneers vs Rams
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
The Rams are excelling in all aspects of the game, and they just successfully shut down the Seahawks' elite passing attack to win 21-19 last week and move to 8-2. So, you wouldn't anticipate anything all that different here with the Buccaneers on the schedule given they've had less success through the air.
The offense has still managed to keep the team in games in spite of some tricky competition, and while this run defense has been one of the best in the game it was irrelevant last week with Josh Allen having a highly-efficient game and the Buccaneers' offense struggling to throw the ball successfully.
Tampa can run, and even though it allowed 44 points last week it still did a good job against James Cook in the backfield. I'm not exactly sure it wins them this game given the Rams don't run the ball all that well, or that much, and to make matters worse almost every starter on offense is dealing with some sort of injury — including Baker Mayfield.
At first glance, this looks too steep for my liking, but the Rams have earned this number. That doesn't mean I'm going to take it, especially with injuries making things muddy, but keep an eye out for a live spot with Tampa Bay if the offense can show some early life.
Verdict: Pass
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Monday Night Football
Panthers vs 49ers
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
I may have been wrong about the Panthers; while they haven't risen out of the bottom five in yards or points per game they've certainly established themselves as one of the stronger rushing offenses in football.
The 49ers are only allowing 4.1 yards per carry, but they do rank 20th in DVOA to represent plenty of inefficiency. Carolina has been incapable of stopping the run with some stronger performances in the secondary, and San Francisco's run game has been virtually nonexistent.
So, does Carolina have a chance? Sure it does. A combination of injuries and poor play have led to decline on defense for the 49ers, and the offense has been working its way out of a hole after plenty of key names missed time earlier in the year.
Things are certainly trending up with plenty of pass-catchers returning along with quarterback Brock Purdy, but it's not like he lit up the Cardinals last week; it was some key turnovers and field position that led to a 41-point outburst. Yes, Carolina's secondary is weaker than Arizona's, but have you seen enough from Purdy this year to lay a touchdown? I don't think so; the Panthers' offense is competent enough and this 49ers defense is bad. It just gave up 47-of-57 passing to Jacoby Brissett for 452 yards and had the Cardinals rostered one NFL-caliber name in the backfield they'd have won. Carolina probably wins on the road.
Verdict: Bet Panthers +7
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