The Seattle Seahawks (9-3) and Atlanta Falcons (4-8) will face off in Week 14 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia is set for 1:00 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Seahawks are 6.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread (Seahawks -6.5), with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. Seattle is a -340 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Atlanta is +265 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Seahawks vs Falcons predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, December 7.
Seahawks vs Falcons Prediction, Picks
- Seahawks vs Falcons pick: Falcons +7 (-120)
My Falcons vs. Seahawks best bet is on Atlanta to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Seahawks vs Falcons Odds for NFL Week 14
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -340 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons NFL Preview
The Falcons receiving more than a touchdown on the spread (+7.5) was the first bet I placed for Week 14, since I project this line closer to +6.
I was hoping Atlanta would get wide receiver Drake London back, but he's been ruled out with a knee injury after not practicing all week.
I'd still play this at the current number of +7 but for a smaller amount if you didn't already get Atlanta with the hook.
Kirk Cousins has actually looked pretty good over the past two weeks and provides a higher floor than Michael Penix Jr., who can be completely off target on any given Sunday.
Per PFF, Cousins ranks 20th (and Penix 37th) out of 42 quarterbacks this season even with Cousins clearly having immense rust early on.
Even without London, the Falcons can move the ball enough to stay within this number in a game where I also like the under, which makes the home dog a bit more appealing.
Over their past five games, the Falcons have gone 1-4 with a +1 point differential — only one of those five contests coming at home.
In fact, over that stretch, they've only trailed once with one second to go in regulation, which came in a road game against the Patriots (who have the NFL's best record) in a one-point loss due to a missed extra point.
The Falcons easily could have won that game, in addition to a neutral-site clash with the Colts in Germany. Atlanta also blew a huge lead against the Panthers in an eventual overtime loss.
On the season, five of the Falcons' eight losses have come by three or fewer (or in overtime).
With a few different bounces (and maybe a different head coach), they could still be in the mix for a division title.
Even in a loss to the Jets last week, Atlanta dominated that game statistically with over 120 more net yards (389-269) and a 1.5 net yards per play edge (5.8-4.3).
The Falcons were mainly done in by poor special teams, which is a weekly concern when backing them.
Simply put, I don't think Atlanta is bad enough to be catching over a touchdown against Seattle, which might be at the peak of its market value following a 9-3 start both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
It's worth noting that the Seahawks' offense has been quietly trending down over the past month.
That might not be evident on the surface since Seattle keeps winning and putting up points, but it has also played some very poor teams (Titans and Vikings with Brosmer over the past two weeks) and has had a number of defensive scores over that stretch.
Over the past four games, Sam Darnold has a 3:5 TD:INT ratio with a 4-9 BTT-TWP ratio. Since Week 10, he ranks 25th in EPA+CPOE composite and 26th in Adjusted EPA per Play.
Over the first nine weeks, Darnold ranked No. 1 in both categories. And it's not like Darnold has faced a complete murderer's row of defenses over the past month, with games against the Cardinals (without corners), Rams, Titans and Vikings.
What has changed?
Defenses have adjusted to Seattle's unique offense under new coordinator Klint Kubiak, who utilizes a high frequency of play-action and heavy personnel.
Defenses have realized you can't let Jaxon Smith-Njigba beat you deep, so I'd expect more bracket-coverage looks from the Falcons after what we saw last week from the Vikings, who held JSN to two receptions for 23 yards.
Atlanta also has done a commendable job overall in limiting pass explosives, which is critical against this Seattle offense, which I truly believe misses the injured Tory Horton.
Rashid Shaheed has been a non-factor since arriving from the Saints via midseason trade.
While the Falcons' season-long numbers against heavy personnel aren't rosy, they have been significantly better with linebacker Divine Diablo on the field.
Without Diablo, the Falcons can't stop the run. And while they still struggle in that area, the Seahawks have not been an overly efficient rushing offense (25th Success Rate, 23rd EPA).
Most importantly, the Falcons defense can actually generate pressure (5th) and notch sacks (3rd).
That's key against Darnold, who is still extremely sensitive to pressure, especially in the interior, which Atlanta can take advantage of.
Seahawks vs Falcons Betting Predictions, Analysis
Seattle is a legit contender in the wide-open NFC race. Its defense is one of the league's best under head coach Mike Macdonald.
However, this is a good spot to sell high on the Seahawks, who have done a lot of damage against bad teams (8-0 against teams not projected to make the postseason vs. 1-3 vs teams that are), while Atlanta has not been as bad as its record indicates.
Lastly, I like to back this Falcons team as an underdog (5-1 ATS in 2025) and try to avoid them at all costs as a favorite where they have consistently flopped.
Over the past five seasons, no team has burned bettors more as a favorite than Atlanta, which has gone 15-29 ATS (34.1%) when laying points, failing to cover by over four points per game.
Notable Trends: Teams that go on the road following a home shutout have gone just 17-35-1 ATS (32.7%) since 2003. The Falcons have not closed as a home underdog of 7 or more points in over four years.
Seahawks vs Falcons Best Bet
- Falcons +7 (-120)
Seahawks vs Falcons Betting Trends
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