The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots square off tonight in Super Bowl LX. Kickoff from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., is set for 6:30 p.m. ET. Seahawks vs Patriots will broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
The Seahawks are favored by -4.5 on the spread over the Patriots; the game total is 45 points. Seattle is a -240 favorite on the moneyline; New England is a +195 underdog.
Below, you can find our Seahawks vs Patriots predictions for Super Bowl LX, which include picks for the spread, game total and three players props, including two anytime touchdown scorers.
Seahawks vs Patriots Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Seahawks vs Patriots Odds
- Seahawks vs Patriots Moneyline: Seahawks -240, Patriots +195
- Seahawks vs Patriots Spread: Seahawks -4.5, Patriots +4.5
- Seahawks vs Patriots Total: 45.5
Seahawks vs Patriots Spread Prediction
If you've been reading my stories leading up to Super Bowl Sunday, you already know I like the Seahawks when it comes to the spread. I've tripled down on my Super Bowl MVP position, taking Jaxon Smith-Njigba yet again at +500 after betting him before the playoffs started and after the Wild Card Round.
The Patriots face a tough task in the Super Bowl against a Seahawks defense that ranked top two in Defensive DVOA against both the run and pass.
It's been said ad nauseam by now, but we have to acknowledge the Patriots had the easiest regular-season schedule in the NFL by DVOA (offensively and defensively). They've faced much stiffer defenses in the postseason and the offense has totally sputtered.
The Patriots have averaged just 18 points per game in the playoffs thus far — that's the lowest mark for a Super Bowl team since the 1979 Rams.
NFL MVP runner-up Drake Maye ranks last in EPA per play and success rate among 32 quarterbacks in the last decade who have made at least three starts in the playoffs (per Sheil Kapadia). Maye's 32% success rate in the postseason is the second-lowest mark for a Super Bowl QB since 1978 — he's sandwiched between the likes of Trent Dilfer and Rex Grossman.
Compounding matters for Maye is the fact that the Patriots' skill-position players leave much to be desired. On paper, Stefon Diggs will wiped out by a Seahawks defense that is No. 1 defending WR1s. That doesn't leave much else — though this does profile as a good spot for Hunter Henry.
It's hard to see where the Patriots have any sort of advantage — even around the edges Seattle has the special teams advantage. New England's unit isn't bad by any stretch — Marcus Jones is one of the best returners in the league — but it struggles with punting and coverage.
The Seahawks are battle-tested; they posted an NFL-record six wins over teams that won at least 12 games this season.
I don't love the line at -4.5 after it opened at -3.5, but Super Bowl winners have a history of covering — 50-7-2 against the spread (ATS), including 31-1 ATS when the spread is six points or less.
Pick: Seahawks -4.5 (-115)
Seahawks vs Patriots Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
With my official final score prediction of 27-20, that gives me a very slight lean to the over in the Super Bowl.
Most books have held firm with an over/under of 45.5, but Fanatics is a half-point lower at 45, which is obviously the best option if you can find it.
The luck-adjusted expected scores from Dr. Nick's Luck Rankings also have this one in a similar range, with the likeliest scores going just past the total.
While Seahawks have an elite defense by any metric, their games against solid offenses have largely ended up high scoring. Their two playoff games each went for at least 47 points – despite not much help from the 49ers – and Seattle has averaged just under 30 points offensively this season.
The Seahawks should be able to approach that average, if not exceed it here, against a Patriots defense that ranked second in points per game allowed but just 23rd in DVOA. That discrepancy is a result of the Patriots' much-discussed weak schedule, especially in terms of the offenses they’ve faced.
Drake Maye’s turnover/fumble issues lately could potentially lead to this game being higher scoring. Patriots turnovers in their own territory would set up Seattle with strong field position, then New England would be chasing points upon getting the ball back.
Obviously, the inverse is also true (turnovers in Seattle territory), which makes this pick somewhat high variance, but we have to live with that if we want to bet into an extremely efficient market like the Super Bowl game total.
Pick: Over 45 (-115)
Seahawks vs Patriots Anytime Touchdown Pick
By Chris Raybon
Led by Mike Vrabel, the Patriots are excellently coached on the defensive side of the ball. They have a quality CB1 in Christian Gonzalez, but if you ask me who the best player in this game is, it's Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Smith-Njigba has scored in just over half of his games and will now get all the snaps he can handle in the most important game of the season.
As I've touched on a number of times in the lead up to the Super Bowl, the Patriots' rush defense does not give up touchdowns, with a TD rate of just 1% (it was 5% when Milton Williams was sidelined) — the league average is around 3.5%. The Seahawks will have to punch it in via the passing game.
While the Patriots are elite against the run, they ranked 31st in DVOA against WR1s. Smith Njigba has failed to reach 70 receiving yards and/or score a touchdown just once this season (the Seahawks' 26-0 blowout win over the Vikings).
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)
Seahawks vs Patriots Anytime TD Prediction
Drake Maye averaged 6.1 rush attempts per game in the regular season; he's bumped that number to eight per game in the playoffs.
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has drawn up some effective rushing concepts recently, including Maye's rushing touchdown and game-ending run against the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.
The Patriots don't have many standout pass-catchers and the Seahawks are elite at defending WR1s and 2s so I'm expecting Maye to use his legs early and often in this game, including near the goal line.
Pick: Drake Maye Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+325)
Seahawks vs Patriots Props: Kenneth Walker
By Chris Prince
While many are optimistic about Kenneth Walker's prospects in Super Bowl 60 with Zach Charbonnet no longer in the picture, it's a brutal matchup for him against an elite Patriots rush defense.
Walker will certainly see a big workload, but he has his work cut out for him against a Patriots defense that allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs this season. Over the last four games, they've allowed 69.2 rushing yards per game.
Milton Williams has been one of the best run stoppers in the NFL and a key cog in helping New England shut down opposing run games. When he has been in the lineup, this run defense has been absolutely elite.
Volume may end up getting Walker over this number in the end, but I'll back the Patriots' run defense and grab the under.
Pick: Kenneth Walker Under 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
