Seahawks vs. Patriots Odds
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
Not many would have predicted a Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots Super Bowl matchup prior to the season, but here we are. Frankly, I think it's nice to have some fresh faces on this stage after the past couple of seasons featured a lot of the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
The Seahawks enter Super Bowl 60 as consensus 4.5-point favorites over the Patriots with the over/under at 45.5.
Is this Seattle's Super Bowl to lose? How fraudulent are the Patriots after cruising through one of the easiest schedules ever?
Let's get into my preview for Super Bowl 60 and my Seahawks vs Patriots picks for the grand finale of the NFL season.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Spread Projection
I can honestly say I don't think I've ever had less confidence in a rating for a team playing in a Super Bowl than I do for this Patriots team.
Not only did they play the easiest regular season schedule this century, they followed that up with a laughable path in the postseason with wins over a Chargers team with no offensive line, a severely banged up Texans offense, and then the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham. It doesn't get much easier than that.
Credit to the Patriots for beating the teams on their schedule, but there's no denying we just don't have the normal subset of games against real competition for a team playing in the Super Bowl.
There's no denying that they faced a gauntlet of opposing defenses in the playoffs (after facing wet paper bags for most of the regular season), but the offense looked very pedestrian — to say the least — with Drake Maye putting the ball on the carpet way too often. The Patriots' defense has led the way, but, again, the competition (and weather) certainly helped.
With all of that said, I'm definitely betting the Seahawks, right? Nope.
Numbers matter and I project the spread between 3.5 and 4, so I actually lean New England's way. And to be quite frank, I could poke holes in Seattle's schedule as well.
The Seahawks went 11-1 following their bye week. Let's take a look at who they beat over that stretch:
- Commanders
- Cardinals
- Titans
- Vikings (with Max Brosmer)
- Falcons (with Kirk Cousins and no Drake London)
- Colts (with Philip Rivers coming out of retirement)
- Panthers
- 49ers twice (a severely injured San Francisco squad)
And, of course, the Rams twice in a pair of true coin-flip games in which Matthew Stafford absolutely shredded the Seahawks. In those two Seattle wins, Los Angeles actually had a 1,060-811 yardage edge.
I'm not saying Seattle doesn't deserve to be in the Super Bowl. It does behind a historically dominant defense led by one of the best minds on that side of the ball at the moment in head coach Mike Macdonald.
My point is you could poke a hole in any team's schedule, especially this season with the bottom falling out of so many teams. Staying healthy and getting schedule breaks is part of the equation every year in the NFL.
Back to my projection: I'm at Seattle -3.8 with a total of 44. Therefore, I lean dog and under.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Over/Under Pick
So, let's combine them and go with a Seahawks Team Total Under 25.5 to get things started.
Despite the lack of quality competition, I'm a believer in the Patriots defense (and their coaching staff). At full strength, they have completely neutered opposing ground games all season.
Led by Milton Williams, they can also generate pressure in the interior, which is the kryptonite for the statuesque Sam Darnold, who is playing behind an interior offensive line that can be exploited. New England also has an elite trio of corners — Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones — which gives Zak Kuhr plenty of flexibility.
Speaking of which, I'm very curious to see how often New England blitzes. Over the first 13 weeks of the season, the Patriots blitzed less than 30% of the time; they have really ramped that up late in the season with a rate north of 40%. That has led to a substantial increase of close to 15% in their overall pressure rate compared to the regular season.
Do they continue that uptick in blitz percentage against the Seahawks? Darnold can make mistakes against the blitz, but he also can create explosive plays. He's boom or bust against the blitz, so it could backfire or lead to some key takeaways.
I'm also super fascinated in how the Patriots plan to cover Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In fact, that's the most intriguing schematic matchup in the game for my money.
The Patriots' coaching staff has no shortage of ties to Bill Belichick, who would certainly sell out to contain Seattle's alpha wide receiver. Belichick would likely put his second-best corner on Smith-Njigba with a safety over top whenever possible, forcing Darnold to beat him through the air by going to Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner and the other tight ends.
Does Vrabel follow suit, or does he have Gonzalez shadow Smith-Njigba whenever possible?
Now, that's not feasible every down and I'm sure the Seahawks are going to have Smith-Njigba line up all over the field to combat any possible bracketing, but it could go a long way in determining the outcome of this game.
I know I'd personally take the Belichick route and do everything possible to take away Smith-Njigba, especially since I have full confidence in the Patriots' run defense completely shutting down a lackluster Seattle rushing attack led solely by Kenneth Walker with Zach Charbonnet out (although, it's been better since teams have started to play with lighter boxes in the second half of the season).
When the Patriots have the ball, it will likely be tough sledding.
Seattle's defensive front can really take advantage of the vulnerable left side of the New England offensive line and generate pressure without blitzing. I also can't envision the Patriots' wide receivers getting separation on the outside against this secondary.
Macdonald has created a perfect modern defense in large part due to the presence of Nick Emmanwori, who enables Seattle to play run or pass regardless of the formation the offense lines up in. Macdonald really did find his Kyle Hamilton on the west coast.
The Seahawks have a zone-heavy defense that utilizes plenty of disguised looks and simulated pressures that can really fluster opposing quarterbacks, who are often dropping back in obvious passing situations since it's near impossible to run on Seattle. I am curious to see if Seattle mixes in more man coverage, but even if not, you can expect quite a few wrinkles and new exotic looks from Macdonald with two weeks to prepare.
In short, I don't envision either team having much success running the ball. Seattle has a historically dominant rush defense, while New England actually had an even better statistical profile with Williams on the field.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Rushing Prop
That does bring up a prop angle I like: Over 4.5 Seahawks with a rushing attempt (and over 7.5 total players). I believe both offenses are going to have to get creative to have any real success running the ball.
Therefore, we could see a number of wide receivers get carries. There's also the possibility of an AJ Barner QB sneak — and don't be shocked if the Patriots worked on their own tush push variety with a tight end during the two weeks leading up to the game.
Regardless, I believe this will come down to who has the more productive day in the pocket between Darnold and Maye, who will each have to deal with plenty of pressure since both defensive lines have distinct pass-rushing advantages up front.
As a result, I d0n't envision many sustained drives. Instead, it will be a game of field position with plenty of punts, so I'm more than comfortable going under 25.5 on the Seahawks team total.
It's also worth mentioning that Mike Macdonald is fairly conservative when it comes to fourth downs and punt decisions. I'm assuming that has a lot to do with relying on his elite defense, but it certainly doesn't hurt this bet.
My one primary concern is turnovers between these quarterbacks that lead to scores and/or short fields. However, those could also come in scoring territory and end up helping up the under, but it's certainly a worry.
In Seattle's three losses this season, it had eight total turnovers. I'm sure that will be a primary focus of the New England defense, but I'm counting on the defenses to get enough stops to keep Seattle from eclipsing the 25-point mark.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Long-Shot Bet
Additionally, I expect an even slower start than we are even used to seeing in Super Bowls due to the lack of experience at both quarterback positions and the likely desire of both staffs to not make a mistake and rely on their defenses until they are forced not to. That brings me to one of my favorite long shots:
- Scoreless First Quarter +750
I'd normally play the first quarter under, but books have caught up to the often nerve-riddled, conservative starts to Super Bowls. In the past, we would be able to get an under 10, but now we are seeing 7.5s in the market.
For reference, over the past 25 Super Bowls, there have been an average of 6.75 points scored. Only four of the 25 saw more than 10 points scored, but six had exactly 10 and two others either finished with eight or nine, which means right around half went over 7.5. I'd rather take a shot on no points being scored at juicier odds since I am expecting a conservative — and potentially jittery — start for both teams.
You may be wondering how many scoreless first quarters there have been over the past 25 Super Bowls. That would be six, or just about 25%.
Amazingly, the Patriots have been involved in four of those six in their nine Super Bowl appearances over that stretch. One of the common denominators for all of those games (and this one) is offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
In those nine Super Bowls, the Patriots have scored a grand total of THREE POINTS in the first quarter. Insane.
Hunter Henry Player Props
I bet Hunter Henry to go over for receiving yards, receptions and longest catch.
As I mentioned previously, I don't see the Patriots having much success on the ground and I think it's going to be tough sledding for their wide receivers on the outside. That leaves plenty of targets for the tight ends and running backs, which is where Seattle funnels targets.
This season, Seattle allowed the opposing primary tight end to catch an average of six balls on 8.3 targets for 63.6 yards. It also allowed a reception of at least 17 yards to an opposing tight end in 15-of-19 games (and 22 times overall).
Meanwhile, Henry has averaged 3.3 receptions on 4.7 targets for 42.5 yards, with 19 total catches of at least 17 yards. And don't forget about that easy Patriots schedule that saw them play with the lead countless times throughout the season.
They are now 4.5-point underdogs and more likely than not to be playing from a trailing game script in the second half, forcing Maye to keep throwing, which has rarely been the case for him this season.
McDaniels has also heavily utilized his tight ends in recent Super Bowls. Over his past five, his primary tight end has averaged 6.8 catches for 80 yards with over 11 targets per game. I expect Henry to be heavily involved and get a sizable target share based on the matchup.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Anytime Touchdown Scorer — AJ Barner
He's not the flashiest player, but AJ Barner is someone to watch on Super Bowl Sunday because he has multiple paths to a touchdown.
He emerged as a factor in the Seahawks' rushing attack. If Seattle is stopped around the 1-yard line, that’s where things get interesting as Barner could be utilized in the Seahawks' iteration of the tush push.
The Patriots are vulnerable to tight ends, particularly in the red zone. Their linebackers and safeties can be beaten in coverage, and that has consistently been the weakest area of their defense. That opens the door for tight ends to play a major role when the field shortens.
Darnold has looked for Barner in the red zone all season. When Seattle gets close, Barner has been a trusted option, and that usage matters in a game like this.
Stuckey's Super Bowl Betting Card:
- Seahawks Team Total Under 25.5 (-113; FanDuel)
- Over 4.5 Seahawks Players With a Rushing Attempt
- Scoreless 1st Quarter (+750)
- Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions (-104; DraftKings)
- Hunter Henry Longest Receptions Over 16.5 (-125; BetMGM)
- Hunter Henry Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110; BetMGM)
- AJ Barner Anytime Touchdown (+230; DraftKings)
Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 20, Patriots 16
