I already discussed this on the Fantasy Flex Projections Pod earlier this week, but Barner saw his routes-run rate jump to 81% in the two games after Elijah Arroyo went on IR in Weeks 15–16, then fall all the way down to 61% over the final two weeks of the season. The reason for that drop was Eric Saubert playing slightly more snaps in 1TE formations, typically the more pass-heavy sets. Saubert played 53% of those snaps compared to Barner’s 47%, which resulted in Saubert running a 43% routes-run rate in Week 18. That usage is closer to where Arroyo typically operated and effectively lowered Barner’s chances in the passing game. Because of that, I expect Barner to settle into more of a 60–70% routes-run rate against the 49ers. That’s still enough playing time to do some damage, but there are matchup factors working against him. The 49ers have been solid against tight ends this season, ranking 4th in DVOA against the position. They also blitz at the 6th-lowest rate in the league, which matters because Barner has thrived against the blitz, averaging 2.64 yards per route run, compared to just 1.21 YPRR when teams don’t blitz. It’s also a game where the 49ers offense could struggle with George Kittle out. He’s a massive piece of their passing game and run blocking, so his absence matters. That sets up a scenario where the Seahawks could play with a one- to two-score lead for much of the game and lean on the run. I’m projecting Barner closer to a 27-yard median with around a 60% chance he stays under 32.5. Some books are already down to 31.5, and I still show around a 58% chance he stays under that number as well.

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