Week 16 in the NFL means only three weeks until the playoffs, and the postseason picture is getting clear.
The Chargers' win over the Broncos on Thursday Night Football means the field of seven in each conference is all but settled now, but don't tell that to a handful of teams hanging by a thread.
So do bettors back those desperate teams, or do we fade desperation and take the points on high lines for what should be tanking teams?
It's another interesting Sunday slate, so let's get to my NFL Week 16 picks and predictions, which include against the spread picks, over/unders and player props.
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Rams vs. Jets
I talked myself into betting the Jets last week and had immediate regrets.
New York ended up covering but shouldn't have. Aaron Rodgers had good counting stats but didn't pass the eye test, mostly just bombing it to Davante Adams against Jacksonville's league-worst defense.
The Jets scored a season-high 32 but average just 19.3 PPG outside of that Jaguars game, and a lot of those points came late. New York's offensive line hasn't lived up to billing; with Tyron Smith out now, it's a rookie left tackle protecting the blind side of a QB that frankly doesn't look like he wants to get hit.
The Rams have a hungry, nasty defensive front — with guys like Jared Verse, Braden Fiske and Byron Young — that will get after Rodgers all game, and that could be about enough to send him into early retirement.
The Jets defense might be even more disappointing. They gave up 25 points to the Jags, which is about as many points as Mac Jones had scored in non-garbage time in a full month of other games.
New York has now allowed that many points five straight times. Teams allowing 25+ in five straight are 19-33 ATS (37%) since 2018.
The Jets are a bottom-five defense by DVOA over the last six weeks, including dead last against the pass. This once-proud defense has totally cratered without Robert Saleh leading the way, and the Rams have been a top-five offense all year with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy.
The Rams couldn't find the end zone against the 49ers, but don't forget they had 44 against Buffalo the week before.
The Jets just aren't very good, anywhere really. New York has four wins, three by one score, and three of those are against the lowly Titans, Patriots and Jaguars. All that's really left now is for the bottom to truly fall out, and this might be the spot if the defense can't find answers to stop the Rams' passing attack.
This is my favorite side of the week by margin. It's just the wrong matchup at the wrong time for the Jets, and I think the Rams could send Rodgers into early retirement so I'm taking the escalator.
Give me Rams -3. And five of eight Rams wins have come by 6+ points so play Rams -5.5 at +145 (bet365), too.
The Jets have losses by 13, 22 and 25, so nibble Rams -13.5 (+360) and Rams -19.5 (+750) at FanDuel in case this gets really ugly.
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Browns vs. Bengals
The Browns have embraced the tank, benching Jameis Winston for the awful Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
DTR might be the worst quarterback in the NFL, but it's a real indictment on the Bengals defense that I still don't want to back Cincinnati as over a touchdown favorite.
The Bengals should score though, with Cleveland's defense badly faltering. Cincinnati is averaging over 30 PPG with Tee Higgins healthy this season, and it has scored at least 27 points in six straight games, averaging 34 PPG during that stretch. If you prefer a side bet, I like Bengals team total over 27.5.
But something else caught my attention in those Tee Higgins splits — despite what you might think, Ja'Marr Chase actually has significantly better numbers with Higgins on the field.
Chase did have one monster game against Baltimore without Higgins (11/263/3). But he averaged just 48.5 YPG in his four other games without Higgins, scoring only one touchdown, and those are four of his five games all season under 70 yards.
By contrast, Chase is averaging 106 YPG in nine games with Higgins this season, and he's found the end zone in seven of those nine (78%), including multiple touchdowns four times, almost half!
The Browns rank top five in most fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs, with six 100-yard WRs and at least one TD to a WR in 10 straight games.
I slightly prefer touchdowns to yards, but we've seen some huge Chase games this season as he pushes for the receiving triple crown and maybe even Offensive Player of the Year, so I want both TDs and yards.
Let's take the Chase escalator.
Start with a touchdown at -130 (DraftKings) as the base bet, and play 2+ TDs at +500 (BetMGM). That's terribly priced since he's done that in almost half his games playing alongside Higgins.
Ready for more? How about 150+ receiving yards at +710 (FanDuel)? And then the big one: 175 yards and two scores at +2656 at FanDuel.
That line has been hit only four times all season, but Chase is responsible for three of those four! Let's hope for another huge outing for the hottest receiver in the league.
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Lions vs. Bears
I wrote an article about fading the Lions going forward. So many injuries up and down the roster, especially on the defensive side, have all but crushed this team's Super Bowl hopes going forward. It's going to be so hard for this banged-up defense to get stops against top teams.
Lucky for them, they're playing the Bears this week.
The Bears had a nice two-week offensive honeymoon when Thomas Brown was promoted to offensive coordinator, but they have been terrible again since he was promoted to interim head coach — probably taking on too many other responsibilities.
Worse, the defense has been awful since the firing of Matt Eberflus. Chicago ranks bottom three against both the run and the pass over the past six weeks by DVOA; the run defense is especially bad, which is trouble against the Lions' rushing attack.
Even in a road division rivalry game, I've got a lot of trends backing the Lions here, and that's telling.
Remember watching this game on Thanksgiving? The Bears made a late push before embarrassing themselves, but they were also down 16-0 at halftime and should've been down 23-0 if not for a fumble near the end zone. Chicago trailed San Francisco 24-0 at halftime the next game, then Minnesota 13-0 on Monday night.
That's a combined 53-0 first-half score since Thanksgiving morning, and the Bears have averaged an 11-point halftime deficit since their last win in London, scoring just four PPG in the first half over that span.
If you like teasers, I like a "Just Win Baby" teaser with Lions -6.5 and Bengals -7.5.
I prefer the first-half angle here. The Lions are 11-3 ATS in the first half, while the Bears are a league-worst 4-10 ATS, including 0-7 ATS on the road.
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Patriots vs. Bills
The Bills are obviously rolling, though this is an obvious letdown spot after four consecutive huge wins.
The Patriots are more bad than awful lately, and Drake Maye is playing pretty good ball so don't be shocked if the Pats hang around early.
Still, it's a tough road spot for the rookie QB and the Patriots rank last in DVOA offensively on the road while the Bills are No. 1 at home. Four of the last five Bills wins in this rivalry are by at least 12 points, and Buffalo typically does a good job of controlling things and pulling away late.
Buffalo has five wins by 21+ already this season and had five a year ago, but I don't need the full-game spread. I prefer a second-half line, where Josh Allen continues to be incredible.
Allen is 69-35-3 ATS (66%) in the second half for his career, and that includes 12-2 ATS this season. As a full-game favorite of 13 or more, Allen is 9-2 ATS in the second half, and the Bills won the second half by double digits in seven of those games.
Even if the Patriots hang early — maybe especially if they do — I trust the Bills to take care of business late.
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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys (Sunday Night Football)
The Cowboys are coming off a dominant win over a feisty Panthers team, but Dallas is still overlooked and undervalued in the market. The Bucs are at peak value after that huge Chargers win, but Tampa Bay was faltering badly in the weeks before that by the underlying numbers.
That makes this a great buy-low, sell-high spot on Sunday night.
The Cowboys defense has played well since Micah Parsons returned. Dallas is a borderline top-10 defense over the past six weeks by DVOA, including top quarter of the league against the pass.
The Cowboys are top 10 against WR1s and top five against deep passing, and though the run defense remains poor, Bucs RB Bucky Irving has been banged up and could be limited.
Dallas is also running better lately with Rico Dowdle, and the Bucs don't have a great cover for CeeDee Lamb. These teams are closer than it seems, and I make this more like Tampa Bay -1.5 or -2 — we're getting real value on this number on the opposite side of the key number.
Teams that win by 17 or more as underdogs of a touchdown or less, like Tampa Bay, are just 63-116-3 ATS the following week (36%). Road teams that covered by 26 or more as underdogs the previous week — Tampa again! — are 15-38-1 ATS since 2010, just 28%.
These are buy-low, sell-high trends. There's also a great trend that warns us against blindly backing these must-win games against teams already on the brink of elimination.
From Week 16 forward, teams that have won 40-to-60% of their games playing a team 8-to-25% worse are an awful 29-74-5 ATS (28%). Baker Mayfield is also 39% ATS for his career as a favorite.
I lean under on this game, so that helps the underdog, too. The Cowboys are live here and they can come through the back door or just cover the number or even win outright.
Play the number and fade the favored Bucs.
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Titans vs. Colts
I love to bet unders in division rematches, and there's little reason to trust either offense right now in this game.
The Titans continue to play quarterback roulette, but might have a losing hand with either option. They've been one of the worst offenses all season by any metric, and the Colts defense actually ranks top quarter of the league by DVOA over the last six weeks.
Tennessee's defense has been pretty good all season. Its pass D is fading some lately but that might not be a problem against Anthony Richardson, who continues to struggle as a passer.
The Colts are a bottom-five passing team with Richardson, and Indianapolis also ranks bottom quarter of the league rushing over the past six weeks.
The Titans defense ranks 10 spots better on the road than at home by DVOA, while the Colts defense is that many spots better at home — advantage defenses once again.
From Week 14 forward, unders in division games featuring a home favorite of under seven points hit at 57%. With a total from 40 to 47, division unders are at 56% in that span.
This total has dropped a point from open but rather than focusing on lost value, that's a good sign we're betting in the right direction and typically a good sign for the under by the trends.
The Colts should beware here. This one looks low scoring and close.
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Eagles vs. Commanders
I already bet Eagles -2.5 on the Lookahead before it crossed the key number, and I like the under here for many of the same reasons.
Philadelphia's defense has been outstanding, the best in the league since the bye week. It's an absolute masterclass by Vic Fangio, unleashing Jalen Carter on the line and those young corners who shut down Terry McLaurin in the first matchup between these teams.
Washington's defense is the weak link here, but beware of the Eagles' injuries on offense. A.J. Brown rolled his ankle last game, and Washington may finally debut Marshon Lattimore. Dallas Goedert is out, too, and Philadelphia doesn't have much depth among its receivers. Saquon Barkley may also be nursing some sort of injury and had his worst game in two months last week.
Washington is a top-10 first-half defense, and the Eagles continue to start slow, especially in the first quarter. The Commanders may be able to keep this low scoring and close early on.
When these teams played a month ago, the Eagles led 26-10 until a meaningless touchdown with under a minute left, but that game still went under this line. Five of the last six Eagles games have been at 44 points or below — under this line.
Washington scores almost 31 PPG against non-playoff opponents, but is down to 22 points against current playoff teams. Philadelphia handled this attack and can handle it again.
From Week 14 forward, division games with a total from 40 to 47 go under 56% of the time, and division games in outdoors conditions are 62% to the under. Nick Sirianni road unders are 20-13 for his career, a 61% hit rate.
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Vikings vs. Seahawks
This is a huge game and should have a playoff feel. Seattle needs it badly, and Minnesota controls its destiny for the NFC 1-seed.
Seattle's defense got embarrassed by Green Bay last week, but this unit has been mostly great and still ranks 6th by DVOA over the last six weeks even when including that game — one spot behind the Vikings.
Seattle has improved greatly on early downs and loves to bring confusing fronts and pressure on late downs. This is a big test for Sam Darnold on the road in a tough playoff-type environment, especially with the Vikings flying to the West Coast — across multiple time zones — on a short week. Expect the Seahawks defense to play angry after an embarrassing showing.
The Seahawks offense could be in trouble again, though. Geno Smith looks like he'll go but he has a bad knee, and if this gets to Sam Howell again, it could get ugly.
It might not be great either way, with Seattle's offensive line struggling so mightily to protect the quarterback and Brian Flores continuing to bring the heat all game.
Seattle's offense ranks bottom five at home on the season by DVOA and has struggled to run the ball — both RBs are banged up as well. It's just tough to see either team finding a ton of consistent offense, especially with weather expected to be in the 40s with wind and some rain.
The Vikings are 9-5 to the under this season, and the Seahawks have become an under team because of their defense. The total has dropped and that means we're probably on the right side taking the under here.
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Cowboys vs. Eagles (Week 17 Lookahead Pick)
We're already backing both of these defenses (above) in Week 16, so it only makes sense to back both again in Week 17.
Vic Fangio's Eagles have the best defense in the league by margin right now, and the Cowboys defense has been sneakily good, especially against the pass.
Dallas remains pretty weak against the run and that could be trouble against Philadelphia, but I don't mind a few of those 16-play, 82-yard drives chewing up the better part of the quarter and helping our under.
The first matchup between these teams finished 34-6 Eagles. Cooper Rush threw for a whopping 45 yards — and there's not a digit missing there. When Rush starts, games average 42 PPG for his career, with 44 points or fewer in nine of his 12 starts (75%).
The total closed at 43.5 in the first matchup, and this is already at 44.5 at some books so it should head that direction and could start to cross some key numbers at 44 or 43.
Nick Sirianni home overs used to be a thing, but the Eagles are 5-2 to the under at home this season. This is an unders team this season, with Philly hitting the under in five of the last six games. In division games from Week 14 forward, if the home team is under at least 80% of its last five games (like the Eagles), the under hits at a 59% clip.
The current forecast shows wind and rain, which can only help. Grab the under before it starts to drop.
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