Saturday College Football Picks, Predictions: Collin Wilson’s Top Week 6 Bets for Saturday, Oct. 5

Saturday College Football Picks & Predictions

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Texas A&M ML -130
	3:30 p.m.	Over 45
	10:30 p.m.	Cal +10.5
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Welcome to Week 6 of the college football season.

Last week’s Georgia vs. Alabama game provided the fireworks that many college football consumers had hoped to see, and while we don't have a game of that magnitude this week, there are still plenty of solid matchups.

Highlighting the slate is the lone ranked matchup: No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M. Following a bye week after a scare against Vanderbilt, the Tigers will look to prove they belong in one of their toughest games of the season.

Along with that SEC showdown, I have my eye on two other games: Iowa vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten and Miami vs. Cal in the ACC.

Both games could play a critical role in the conference title race for each respective league, so let's dive a little deeper.

Continue reading for Week 6 college football picks and predictions in my Action Network betting card for Saturday, Oct. 5.

Saturday, Oct. 5

12 p.m. ET

ABC

Texas A&M ML -130

After a hard-fought victory in the Southwest Classic over Arkansas, Mike Elko said it's "one step at a time" for his Texas A&M Aggies (4-1, 2-0 SEC).

A heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame in the season opener is the only blemish for the head coach in his first year in College Station.

Missouri (4-0, 1-0 SEC) will also look to stay undefeated after posting a narrow victory against Vanderbilt before entering a bye week. The Tigers are 3-1 against the spread after bye weeks since head coach Eliah Drinkwitz arrived in Columbia before the 2020 season.

With Alabama on the schedule for Missouri and Texas on tap for Texas A&M, Week 6 will serve as a crucial game for the Aggies and Tigers with respect to the College Football Playoff.

So, let's get to my Missouri vs. Texas A&M predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.

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Missouri Tigers

Missouri lacks a trusted data point in the numbers after starting the season with four consecutive victories. The Tigers enter College Station with a strength of schedule ranked 120th, a stark contrast to the Aggies, who slip inside the top 30.

Two specific areas have plagued Missouri — the ability to create explosive plays and finish drives.

There's good and bad with quarterback Brady Cook, who has committed just one turnover-worthy play this season but has completed only three passes over 20 yards.

Missouri is 129th in offensive pass explosives, coinciding with slot Luther Burden's target share drop from 34.1% to 17.8%.

The Tigers have been excellent defensively under new coordinator Corey Batoon. The 3-3-5 personnel runs 67% of its coverage snaps in zone, a split between Cover 1 and Cover 3.

Missouri has produced numbers across the board with the exception of one area, a PFF rank of 64th in coverage. Early downs have provided the best window for opponents to create explosives, specifically against the rush.

Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M is a battle-tested team heading into Week 6 of the season, the first SEC contest to be played at Kyle Field.

The Aggies have been fortunate to this point, posting coin-flip numbers in post-game win expectancies against Florida and Bowling Green.

The Texas A&M defense took over the game against Arkansas after the first quarter, allowing just three points in the final 45 minutes of play. The Havoc-minded defense took over the Razorbacks offensive line, producing 10 tackles for loss and eight quarterback hurries.

Nic Scourton, a prize possession from the transfer portal, played the edge position like a man possessed against Arkansas.

The Aggies defense has been fantastic against the opposing rush, ranking top 15 nationally in Stuff Rate and Line Yards.

A leaky secondary has given Texas A&M the most issues through five games, ranking 94th in coverage with a mid-FBS number in creating contested catches. The Aggies have given up a play of 40 or more yards three times in the past two games.

There is positive news on the offensive side of the ball, as backup freshman quarterback Marcel Reed has led one of the most disciplined offenses in the nation. The RPO package is complemented with a heavy rush tendency on 67% of snaps.

Running back Le'Veon Moss continues to be the workhorse of the offense, averaging 4.6 yards after first contact. The ground-and-pound game plan could change for Missouri, as original starting quarterback Connor Weigman is listed as a game-time decision.

Missouri vs. Texas A&M Prediction

Texas A&M has struggled to defend against the explosive play.

Arkansas posted two rushing attempts over 20 yards and another seven passing attempts over 15 yards. During a road victory in Gainesville, Florida had six passing attempts go for more than 15 yards.

Elko commented that the communication between the three different units on defense has been missing, allowing opponents to create plenty of explosives plays.

The Missouri offense has shown severe struggles in the areas where the Aggies defense should be attacked. The Tigers are near the bottom in Pass EPA, as Cook has completed just 3-of-14 attempts beyond 20 yards.

Not only have the numbers evaporated from creating chunk plays, but the loss of Cody Schrader at running back has directly impacted the Tigers' ability to generate scores. They're outside the top 50 in red-zone touchdown rate and Finishing Drives, data points worth noting against one of the softest schedules in the nation.

Cook should have plenty of pressured passing attempts against Scourton and fellow edge Shemar Stewart, who have combined for 20 quarterback hurries this season.

The Texas A&M offense may have options at quarterback, as a healthy Weigman could look to take advantage of a Tigers secondary that allowed a number of explosive drives to Vanderbilt and Boston College.

The small margin of victory in an overtime game with the Commodores indicates Reed will have success running the RPO with Moss.

Pick: Texas A&M ML (-135 or Better)

Saturday, Oct. 5

3:30 p.m. ET

CBS

Over 45

The Big Ten will shift into fifth gear when the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) make their way to Ohio Stadium to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0) on Saturday, Oct. 5 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

Ohio State currently sits at 123rd in strength of schedule, lacking quality nonconference opponents. Head coach Ryan Day traveled to East Lansing in Week 5, beating Michigan State soundly thanks to three turnovers from the Spartans.

The Buckeyes are in a similar position to Ole Miss in Week 5, lacking a quality opponent while drawing one of the best defenses in FBS.

Ohio State hopes to avoid the same result as the Rebels, as the Buckeyes are near three-touchdown favorites against the Hawkeyes.

The offense has been the big story with Iowa so far, scoring at least 31 points in three of its four games. The Hawkeyes ended a miserable 2023 campaign at 15.4 points per game but were strengthened by another tremendous Iowa defense that gave up only 14.8 points per game.

With a new offensive coordinator coming to Iowa City, the Hawkeyes have thrived on the ground in terms of Success Rate and explosives.

Iowa will look to recreate the magic of 2017 when it dropped a piano on the sixth-ranked Buckeyes, 55-24.

While Iowa has always had the defense and special teams for an upset, a new offense could create the biggest upset of the young Big Ten season.

Let's dive into my Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.

Iowa Hawkeyes

New Iowa offensive coordinator Tim Lester has an extensive background in the footprint of the Big Ten.

Before a year as a Green Bay Packers analyst, Lester was hired as the head coach of Western Michigan in 2017. The Broncos were a top-four scoring offense in the MAC through 2021, as Lester's work as a quarterbacks coach for Purdue and Syracuse translated to points and victories.

Fast forward to 2024, and Iowa has utilized zone-read rush concepts on more than 95% of running plays. The stable of running backs includes Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson, who both average 3.6 yards after contact.

The explosive bell-cow of this offense, however, is Kaleb Johnson. The Ohio native averages 8.4 yards per carry and has created 30 missed tackles on just 82 rushing attempts.

After a season of offensive numbers that finished bottom-10 in FBS, Iowa sits inside the top 50 in explosives and Success Rate on the ground.

The offensive line grades out as mid-FBS in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, meaning the Hawkeyes' running backs are creating the offense on a consistent basis.

Quarterback Cade McNamara has had opportunities in passing downs, an area where the Hawkeyes continue to struggle. Iowa ranks 104th in Success Rate in those situations.

The former Michigan quarterback has a 3:2 ratio in terms of touchdown to interceptions and big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays.

Lester has not pushed the envelope on the passing game, as McNamara is on pace for his lowest average depth of target in his five-year career.

On the other side, defensive coordinator Phil Parker continues to stymie opposing offenses in his 13th season in Iowa City. The 4-2-5 has held plenty of aggressiveness back compared to last year, as the Hawkeyes have shown blitz on just 16% of defensive snaps.

After averaging a 25% blitz rate over the past two seasons, Parker could be holding those blitz packages back for the Buckeyes. The Hawkeyes remain a top-25 Havoc unit, generating a fumble, tackle for loss or pass breakup on 20% of defensive snaps.

Cornerback Jermari Harris has been a lockdown corner from the left side, already racking up two interceptions and five pass breakups.

Parker implements one of the heaviest zone coverage rates in the nation, opting for quarters and Cover 3 to prevent explosives plays.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State's focus coming into the season centered around a new play-caller, as Day tapped his former New Hampshire coach for the offensive coordinator position.

Chip Kelly has brought a balanced attack to Columbus, using zone read for run concepts while quarterback Will Howard looks to minimize turnovers in the passing game.

The Buckeyes have struggled to create explosives through the air, as Howard's average depth of target sank to 7.4 yards after the game against Michigan State.

The heavy lifting has been by the targets after the catch, with slot Emeka Egbuka averaging 11.4 yards after the catch.

However, the biggest contributor on the offense is freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith. The rising star has already contributed five touchdowns on an explosive 3.8 yards per route run.

Jim Knowles continues to call plays as the defensive coordinator, as the 4-2-5 has maintained a blitz rate of 28% year over year.

However, the Buckeyes defense has yet to face an offense that falls inside the top 90 of all FBS offenses, per SP+.

If there's a concern in the numbers up to this point, Ohio State sits outside the top 40 in Defensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate and tackle grading.

Even though the Buckeyes allow an average of 10 missed tackles a game, Ohio State has dismantled the schedule from a Defensive Success Rate perspective. In 50 opponent drives, only 10 crossed Ohio State's 40-yard line. Those drives have gone on to average 0.6 points per trip.

Iowa vs. Ohio State Prediction

There are a number of handicaps to consider when it comes to Iowa vs. Ohio State in Columbus.

First, the Hawkeyes must be capable of shutting down the Buckeyes' potent rushing attack. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson have produced 12 explosive runs, each averaging a minimum 3.5 yards after first contact.

The Buckeyes rank top-20 in run-block grading but will face an Iowa defensive front that's top-25 in run defense.

The Hawkeyes are the best defense in the nation in containing the big run, leading the nation with just four opponent attempts that have gone 10 yards or longer. Iowa State met the national average in Success Rate on rushing attempts but failed to record any gain of 12 yards or more.

Iowa's defense has had more trouble containing the explosive pass, but that's a variable Ohio State's offense has not flashed with Howard at quarterback.

While Harris has played corner at an elite level, starting right cornerback TJ Hall has been a liability on the outside. The junior has allowed eight catches with an average of 24.4 yards to go along with three touchdowns. Hall will continue to work the right side of the field, directly opposing Smith's explosiveness.

The biggest question is the legitimacy of Ohio State's rush defense numbers against one of the softest schedules in the nation.

The Buckeyes rank top-15 in Success Rate team against the rush but have lost battles against opposing offensive lines. A decline in Stuff Rate and Line Yards numbers makes for an ominous sign against Iowa.

Containing a dangerous Hawkeyes rushing attack might not be an option for the Buckeyes' unproven defense. Johnson ranks as the fifth-most elusive back in FBS, a measurement of yards after contact and missed tackles.

Both offenses have advantages in moving the chains and creating scoring opportunities.

Smith will be paired up against the lowest-graded defensive back in the Iowa secondary, while an Ohio State defense that averages 10 missed tackles a game will draw one of the most elusive running backs in the nation.

Action Network projects Ohio State as a -19.5 favorite, giving no value to a side in the current market.

However, Iowa's renewed commitment to scoring points — along with key advantages on both sides of the ball — calls for the total to fly over the key number of 45.

Pick: Over 45

Saturday, Oct. 5

10:30 p.m. ET

ESPN

Cal +10.5

The Cal Golden Bears (3-1) are set to host their first-ever ACC game from California Memorial Stadium against the No. 8 Miami Hurricanes (5-0) at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

This will also be Cal's first ESPN College GameDay appearance.

Miami head coach Mario Cristobal will have an extra day of rest after surviving Virginia Tech, 38-34, on Friday of Week 5. The Hokies' final play of the game was initially called a game-winning touchdown catch, but was later overturned to keep Miami's undefeated season alive.

Cal will play only its second FBS game at home, as it already completed road trips to Florida State and Auburn. The Bears are coming off a bye week, and head coach Justin Wilcox is 7-5 against the spread with extra time since taking the job in 2017.

The Bears suffered a defeat to the Seminoles in Week 4, outgaining Florida State by 1.4 overall yards per play.

The Hurricanes are favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -400. Meanwhile, the total sits at 55 for this ACC duel.

Here's my Miami vs. Cal predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.

Miami Hurricanes

There was evidence Cam Ward would have a subpar game at some point in this campaign. The former signal caller for Incarnate Word and Washington State entered a fifth collegiate season with a combined 76 interceptions and fumbles.

The Hokies were dialed in from a Havoc perspective in Week 5, generating five quarterback hurries on Ward.

On 48 tries, the Hurricanes' offensive line allowed nearly as many pressured drop backs as a clean pocket. Ward took four sacks on pressured attempts, completing just 8-of-21 passes.

Missed blocks have plagued this offense, forcing Ward out of the pocket for 167 scramble yards this season.

With running back Damien Martinez being neutralized on the ground, explosives have come through the air. Xavier Restrepo has been one of the most dangerous slot receivers in the nation, generating five touchdowns, while catching four of five contested targets.

Isaiah Horton and Jacolby George have provided home run potential on the outside, combining for another five receiving touchdowns.

On the flip side, there have been two problematic areas for the defense through the first quarter of the season. The Canes' tackle grading has fallen to 88th, per PFF, a number that declined thanks to 19 missed tackles against Virginia Tech.

With a loss of tackling fundamentals, teams have been able to execute explosives through rushing attempts. The Hurricanes are one of the few defenses to allow a rushing attempt to eclipse 70 yards.

The 3-3-5 of coordinator Lance Guidry has struggled against teams' run concepts that include outside zone and power.

California Golden Bears

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza will have chance to lead his team to victory over the biggest University from his old stomping grounds. Mendoza played at Columbus High School, a 13-minute car ride from the University of Miami campus in Coral Gables.

The quarterback's family is no stranger to Cristobal, who played high school football with Mendoza's father.

Cal has done its most damage when Mendoza gets into passing downs, generating a top-35 success rate. The sophomore has avoided mistakes so far, posting a turnover-worthy-play rate of less than 2% on 152 drop backs.

Mendoza has thrived on deep passing, creating five big-time throws while finding explosive wideout Nyziah Hunter for four touchdowns on the season.

The Bears have been stingy against opposing passing attacks, running man coverage on 40% of snaps versus Cover 1 and Cover 3 while in zone. PFF grades Cal as the 17th-best coverage unit, contributing to a defensive quality drives rank of fifth in FBS.

While the overall Havoc number sits just outside the top 50, Cal leads the nation in interceptions with 10 overall. Corner Nohl Williams is one of the most dangerous cover defenders in college football, already picking off four passes through four games.

The Bears excel in keeping opponents from creating a methodical drive. Through four games, Cal has allowed opponents to reach red zone territory on seven drives with only three scores.

Cal has allowed 14 points or less in four consecutive games for the first time since 1979.

Stuckey's Week 6 Bets for Vanderbilt vs. Alabama, Washington vs. Michigan & MoreRead now

Miami vs. Cal Prediction

The first handicap when Miami is involved is the opposing defense's ability to create Havoc on Ward. Missed blocks have created open pass rush lanes, a positive for the Bears and their top-40 pass rush rank.

With Ward expected to feel pressure, Williams is sure to provide a safety blanket for the Cal secondary against Restrepo in the slot. The Bears are expected to maintain a top-30 rank against pass explosives.

For the Bears to have any shot in this game, the connection between Mendoza and Hunter must get behind the Hurricanes' defense.

Explosives will be needed for Cal to score, as the team has floundered in scoring position. In 13 possessions in the extended red zone, the Bears have averaged just 2.8 points per trip.

The Action Network projects this game closer than the market offering, suggesting Miami as 8.5-point favorites. There are avenues for Cal to keep up with Miami, as Hunter should haul in game-deciding catches, while Williams is tasked with playing lockdown corner.

Cristobal's proclamation that Miami suffers from missed assignments, tackles and blocks will create a covering opportunity for the home team.

Pick: Cal +10.5 (Play to +10)

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