It's been a fun day of college football so far, but it's not over yet — far from it. It's time to turn our attention to Week 12's afternoon slate.
Our college football writers came through with seven — that's right, seven — best bets for Saturday's afternoon games, including picks for USC vs. Nebraska, Purdue vs. Penn State, West Virginia vs. Baylor and more.
Check out our seven Week 12 college football picks for Saturday afternoon — and be sure to take a look at our noon and evening best bets for Saturday's slate as well.
Week 12 College Football Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday afternoon's slate of Week 12 NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 4:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Hawaii vs. Utah State Best Bet
Utah State had a crazy offseason with its coach being fired over the summer and appointing an interim coach who had just been hired a few months ago.
That drama has led to a season in disarray. The Aggies are just 2-7, and their only FBS win came by two points against Wyoming in a game they were outgained by 100 yards.
The biggest issue for this team is clearly the defense. The Aggies rank 126th in the country in Success Rate allowed. They rank in the bottom 10 against both the run and the pass and are allowing a ridiculous 6.8 yards per play.
In their last five games, three of Utah State’s opponents have scored at least 50 points, and Washington State scored 49 last week. Kent State is the only team in the country that has allowed more than the 42 points per game Utah State is giving up.
Over the past few weeks, the Hawaii offense has started to come together. It put up 24 on Nevada and 21 on Fresno State in a pair of wins and scored 27 on UNLV and only lost by two.
Quarterback Brayden Schager is coming off back-to-back three-touchdown performances, and in the game before that, he had four rushing scores. He has been using his legs a lot more recently, helping to balance out the offense.
Utah State can't run the ball at all, so its only option is through the air. But I really like Hawaii’s pass defense. Defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman is a defensive back specialist, serving as the defensive backs coach for the New York Jets during the Darrelle Revis era.
Hawaii ranks 18th in the country in PFF’s Coverage grade, and its job is a lot easier without star wide receiver Jalen Royals in the lineup for the Aggies.
This team averages 290 receiving yards per game, and Royals averaged 119 of them before his season-ending injury.
Utah State has been held under 230 passing yards in each of the two games without Royals, its two lowest passing outputs since Week 2.
Hawaii is 4-6 entering this game and needs to win out to make a bowl game. It would be the first bowl game under head coach Timmy Chang, and you can bet that's very important to this team.
Pick: Hawaii -2.5 (Play to -3)
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Hawaii vs. Utah State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This Utah State offense hasn't quite been the same since leading receiver Jalen Royals went down with a season-ending injury.
The passing game has taken a significant step back with his absence. In the last two weeks, Utah State has averaged just 219 pass yards per game and has been much more reliant on the ground game to move the ball.
Well, Hawaii has held the opposition under 100 yards rushing on five separate occasions this year.
Utah State ranks 107th nationally in Havoc Allowed, and the Hawaii front seven has generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks all season. The Bows have registered 25 sacks and 62 tackles for loss this season.
I expect Utah State to struggle to run the ball here, and I don't have confidence in the Aggie offensive line protecting long enough for Spencer Petras to make the appropriate reads.
Hawaii has operated at a slower pace all season, and I don't think it wants to get into a high-scoring barn burner here.
The Bows have only surrendered more than 29 points twice this season, and while I suspect we'll see a close back-and-forth game here, I don't believe it will be high-scoring from either side.
I trust the Hawaii defense to limit explosive plays and make it difficult for Utah State to consistently sustain drives. Hit the Utah State team total under.
Pick: Utah State Team Total Under 29.5 (Play to 28.5)
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Penn State vs. Purdue Best Bet
By John Feltman
We’ve got a massive mismatch in West Lafayette on Saturday afternoon, and the 28.5-point spread reflects that.
The Nittany Lions continue to dominate against non-top 10 teams, and I see no reason why that trend doesn’t continue here.
Offensively, they should be able to run all over the Boilermakers defense. The running back tandem of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton has been effective while they split the carries, but I would like to see Singleton get more involved.
Singleton has been dealing with some injuries over the past couple of weeks, so offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has limited the amount of touches he gets. He's averaging two more yards per carry than Allen, so once Singleton is fully healthy, I expect him to reclaim most of the work.
Regardless of who's running the ball, the Boilermakers allow a ton of explosive plays, specifically on the ground. The Nittany Lions are top-15 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards, so the offensive line has done a superb job in that area.
Run-blocking has been one of many strengths of the offensive strength, as Penn State is third in Havoc Allowed.
Even if the Nittany Lions ground game isn't working, they are fourth in Pass Success Rate. The secondary has been a disaster for Purdue, so there are multiple ways for the Nittany Lions to sustain and finish drives.
There's not much else to say about the Purdue defense except that it's a horrific unit. It ranks 112th in PFF Tackling and 128th in PFF Coverage, which is the icing on the cake considering they allow a ton of explosive plays.
They are one of the worst teams in the nation against the run, so the Nittany Lions will be able to do whatever they want on offense all afternoon long. Purdue will not get stops here
There are many uncertainties about whether the Nittany Lions will pull their starters early, so it's best to attack the team total rather than the spread. They need to put up some style points the rest of the way in order to bolster their resume for the College Football Playoff.
This Purdue team has quit, but I'd rather avoid any late-game shenanigans from either team that can determine the spread.
Kotelnicki's offense should put in a huge effort, and I know Franklin will be more than happy to pour points on the scoreboard.
Pick: Penn State Team Total Over 39.5 (Play to 40.5)
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Oregon State vs. Air Force Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
I was very impressed with what I saw from Air Force last week against Fresno State.
This is the type of performance that we had been yearning for from the Falcons all season. The offensive line played with attitude, the quarterback play was highly efficient, and we saw a little bit more explosiveness from the ball-carriers.
Air Force had been a mess all season on offense, but I was encouraged by how well the Falcons executed on third and fourth down last week. The Oregon State defense should be a favorable matchup for Air Force.
The Beavers are just 125th nationally in Defensive Rush EPA per Play and 126th in Rush Explosiveness allowed. The front seven can't secure tackles behind the line of scrimmage and rank near the bottom of FBS in Stuff Rate.
I expect Air Force to have another solid performance in the ground game this week.
I’m not in love with what Oregon State has done recently on offense and the switch to quarterback Ben Gulbranson is unlikely to produce effective results. OSU has lost four straight games and is on a significant downward trend.
Grab the points with the Flyboys, and sprinkle the moneyline. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright.
Pick: Air Force +3.5 (Play to +3)
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Nebraska vs. USC Best Bet
By Doug Ziefel
It's safe to say that the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the USC Trojans are far from the hottest teams in the Big Ten. Nebraska comes into this game on a three-game skid, while USC has dropped four of its last five.
USC's struggles have prompted a change at quarterback, as Jayden Maiava will make his first start of the season.
Maiava is known as more of a mobile threat, but the Cornhuskers have been excellent against the rush this season, ranking 14th in yards per rush allowed. It will be key for them to contain him in the pocket.
Maiava is largely unproven as a passer. He put up solid numbers at UNLV last season but struggled against higher-tier competition like Boise State in the Mountain West Championship game.
Where Nebraska has a chance to make this game tightly contested is through the air offensively. Quarterback Dylan Raiola is set to play after sustaining a back injury, and it's no secret the Trojans' secondary is beatable.
USC ranks 124th in opponent completion percentage allowed and 122nd in defensive sack rate. So Raiola, who's 46th in completion percentage nationally, should be able to operate comfortably from the pocket without much pressure.
If Nebraska can make Maiava beat it through the air, it will have an opportunity to not only hang around in this game but even pull off the upset.
Pick: Nebraska +7.5 (Play to +7)
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Baylor vs. West Virginia Best Bet
After a 2-4 start to the season, many assumed Dave Aranda’s time as the head man at Baylor was coming to an end.
With its back against the wall, Baylor has rattled off three wins in a row and has a ton of momentum on its side.
Had it not been for a miraculous Hail Mary by Colorado back in late September, the Bears would actually be right in the thick of the Big 12 race.
Nonetheless, this team is playing as well as just about anyone in the conference right now and has had two weeks to prepare for WVU coming off of its bye.
QB Garrett Greene’s status remains in doubt for the Mountaineers, and even if he's available, he's unlikely to be 100%. He’s incredibly important to everything WVU wants to do offensively.
Give me Baylor to keep its winning ways going in a matchup where its offense should feast against a soft WVU defense. It'll cover the short number along the way.
Pick: Baylor -1 (Play to -2)
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Missouri vs. South Carolina Best Bet
By Greg Liodice
I can’t imagine this season has gone the way 23rd-ranked Missouri had envisioned back in August. It started red-hot after the first few games, and then the spark started to fizzle, eventually getting crushed by both Texas A&M and Alabama.
As we look ahead to Week 12, it doesn’t look like quarterback Brady Cook will be available. He’s currently listed as doubtful with a hand/wrist injury, which means Drew Pyne will assume the starting role against the 21st-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks.
While the Gamecocks have been making waves this season, it still seems like many programs have been overlooking them.
They have two of the best edge rushers in Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart and a stifling secondary. Along with that, they rank 20th in Havoc generated.
Mizzou has done a solid job this season at preventing pressure, as it ranks sixth in Havoc allowed. With those studs looming, it presents a difficult dynamic for Mizzou’s offensive line.
It also gives Pyne, who has historically been a middling QB, a nearly impossible task. Pyne is nothing special, but I think he’s working with better options than he ever has in Luther Burden III, Theo Wease Jr. and Mookie Cooper.
Regardless, I see a big opportunity for the Tigers to engage in the run this week. Nate Noel returned from injury, but he hasn’t been the same player since.
However, Tigers are an exceptional running team, ranking 15th in Rush Success Rate. If Noel isn’t performing like he should, Georgia State transfer Marcus Carroll can step in and take the burden off.
This game is listed at South Carolina -14 and I think it’s a bit high, even with Cook out. Mizzou is still a top program in the nation, and while it’s not going to be a College Football Playoff team, South Carolina would be foolish to take it lightly.
I'll ride with the Tigers even with their quarterback concerns. There’s a lot more to this program than Cook.
Pick: Missouri +14.5 (Play to +10.5)
