Washington vs Texas Spread, Over/Under
2024 Sugar Bowl Odds
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
For the first time in what feels like a while, college football fans have been blessed with a College Football Playoff where no one team feels like a forgone conclusion to hoist the National Championship trophy on Jan. 8.
And while the Rose Bowl sees two CFP regulars square off in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains, New Orleans plays host to a pair of teams yet to ever win a playoff game.
One of just two undefeated teams to make this year’s semifinals, Washington (13-0) finds itself in familiar territory when it challenges one of the nation’s best as an underdog. The Huskies closed as double-digit dogs in the Pac-12 Championship against Oregon before they went to win by a field goal.
Heisman finalist Michael Penix Jr. and one of the nation’s most prolific offenses helped propel Washington to the Pac-12’s first-ever Sugar Bowl appearance.
Aided by Rome Odunze, the nation’s second-leading receiver, the Huskies were masters of escaping with close victories, winning seven of their final nine games by a single score.
Texas (12-1) has had fewer close calls, including a 10-point win over fellow CFP team Alabama, but the Longhorns also have a loss, falling in the final minute to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
The Longhorns may not have a Heisman finalist at the quarterback position, but Quinn Ewers is one of the few players in the country capable of going tit-for-tat with Penix, and he has a group of receivers just as talented as the stable at Washington.
Texas will be without leading rusher Jonathon Brooks, who was injured back in November against TCU, but the good news for the Longhorns is leading receiver Xavier Worthy is expected to be near 100%.
It’s been 19 years since Texas' last national title and 32 since Washington split one. Which team does our staff think will get one step closer to ending the drought? Let's take a look.
Washington vs Texas Spread
Washington +4
By Cody Goggin
Personally, I would side with Texas here, but our staff tends to lean in the other direction. With seven of the 11 decisive votes, our writers like taking the Washington Huskies and the four points.
While Texas is favored in this game, it isn’t hard to see why Washington would be a popular pick. Led by Heisman finalist Michael Penix Jr., Washington has the No. 4 offense in the entire nation, according to SP+.
Washington ranks fourth in Offensive Success Rate and 14th in Finishing Drives on the season.
The passing offense for the Huskies features plenty of future NFL talent at wideout, as they rank eighth in Passing PPA and sixth in Passing Success Rate.
Along with Penix, this receiver room features a triumvirate of talent.
Rome Odunze projects to be a high first-round pick this year and led the Huskies with 1,428 yards and 13 touchdowns. Ja’Lynn Polk contributed another 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns, while Jalen McMillan amassed 468 yards despite missing a large chunk of the season.
Texas’ largest weakness on defense is its secondary. The Longhorns rank 31st in Passing Success Rate Allowed but 86th in passing explosiveness allowed. They're just 55th in the country in PFF coverage grade as well.
While Texas is strong in the trenches, the Washington receivers may pose a mismatch for the Longhorns on the back end.
Texas’ offense may be solid but it isn't on the same level as Washington on that side of the ball. The Longhorns rank 39th in Offensive Success Rate and 72nd in Finishing Drives. They pass the ball more than they run and have the 16th-best passing Success Rate but only the 89th-best mark in passing explosiveness.
Texas will be feeling the loss of leading rusher Jonathon Brooks in this matchup. Brooks went for 1,139 yards on the ground this year and was averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry.
Washington’s weakness on the defensive side of the ball is without a doubt its run defense, where it ranks 129th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 125th in Rushing PPA Allowed. Without Brooks, it remains to be seen whether or not Texas can take advantage of this fault.
The Huskies certainly have an advantage in this matchup when it comes to offensive skill players. That's what got them this far. Now, we'll see if it can propel this team to even greater heights.
With all the marbles on the line, our staff likes taking this Washington team to cover as four-point underdogs in this CFP semifinal matchup.
Pick: Washington +4
Washington vs Texas Over/Under
Over 63.5 | 8 Picks |
Under 63.5 | 5 Picks |
Over 63.5
With a total of 63, oddsmakers have determined that this will be a back-and-forth offensive display. With eight votes for the over vs. five for the under, our staff feels the same way. Why is this?
Well, looking at these two teams' offenses, it’s easy to see that there could be plenty of fireworks in New Orleans on Monday.
The Huskies have been dominant while being led by Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. and his NFL-ready wide receiver corps headlined by Rome Odunze.
Washington ranks fourth in Success Rate, 10th in Havoc Allowed and 14th in Points per Opportunity. The Huskies absolutely excel at moving the ball down the field and punching it into the end zone instead of settling for field goals.
On the flip side, despite a Manning being on his team, Quinn Ewers has quietly put together a season worthy of a future first-rounder.
While not quite as dominant as the Huskies, the Longhorns rank 39th in Success Rate, 40th in explosiveness and 22nd in Havoc Allowed.
Texas has its own big-play threat in speedster Xavier Worthy. It’ll be interesting to see if he can take the top off a Huskies defense that ranks 39th in passing explosiveness allowed.
I agree with the oddsmakers and our staff that this will be an absolute barn-burner.
Penix and Ewers are two of the best quarterbacks in the country, and I expect them to come out and play like it. While I expect Washington to attack through the air immediately and sustain some success, look for Texas to move the ball well on the ground to set up its passing game with deep play-action shots.
Both of these teams excel at converting trips to opposing territory into touchdowns, which is the X-factor for me.
Pick: Over 63.5
