College Football Odds, Picks for Virginia Tech vs. Marshall

The Sun Belt has seemingly always claimed wins over Power Five competition.

Last year, this Marshall squad went into South Bend and beat Notre Dame.

This season, the Herd's league peers have claimed wins over Virginia, Baylor and South Alabama.

The Hokies have stumbled out of the gate in the second season of the Brent Pry era, falling to 1-2 while getting bitten by the injury bug. Now they have to go on the road with a slumping offense and potentially a new quarterback to face a team that finished in the top 10 in defensive SP+ in 2022.

This is a prime spot for the Thundering Herd to score a major home victory in front of a fired-up fanbase at The Joan. Head coach Charles Huff has built a physical team based on tough defense and pounding the rock.

In other words, they will try to take Virginia Tech’s famous identity and use it against the Hokies.

The Herd are favored at home; should you back them to take care of business?

Last season was rough for Virginia Tech in Pry’s debut campaign, and the early slate has been unforgiving this season as the Hokies look to build out of the poor roster construction of the Justin Fuente era.

The rebuild is deep and this team is struggling mightily on offense, ranking 94th in offensive SP+.

Starting quarterback and former Marshall transfer Grant Wells was injured in Week 2 against Purdue, leading to Kyron Drones taking over and starting last week. Wells is practicing this week, and it's currently unclear who will start in Huntington.

Unfortunately, neither option is inspiring. Wells has completed just 53% of his passes for a 56.1 QBR. Drones hasn't been able to beat him out for the job, and his numbers during his audition have been even worse.

Wells, at least, offers the revenge narrative at Marshall, but Drones has flashed the potential to make some plays with his legs.

Regardless of who takes the snaps, they pilot a Virginia Tech passing game without two of its top targets, Ali Jennings and Jaylin Lane. The passing attack ranks 74th in Success Rate and is actually the better of the two units on offense.

The run game is a disaster, one of the worst in FBS. The Hokies rank 120th in Rush Success Rate and 127th in Rush Explosiveness. Running backs Bhayshul Tuten and Malachi Thomas have shouldered the workload, carrying the ball a combined 61 times for 156 yards (2.5 yards per carry).

And it’s not like their schedule has been 2023 Georgia, 2022 Georgia and 2021 Georgia. They've opened with Old Dominion, Purdue and Rutgers.

This week, they face a Marshall defense that ranks 18th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. Big running plays can beat Marshall, but Virginia Tech can’t create any.

The offense has been particularly dreadful when you measure it on a drive-efficiency basis. The Hokies rank 105th in ECKEL Rate – Parker Fleming’s measure of how often you create quality drives and scoring opportunities – and only 95th in Points Per ECKEL.

They barely threaten to score, and when they do, they struggle to make the most of their chances.

Pry is a former defensive coordinator trying to restore the program’s excellence on that side of the ball. The run defense has struggled, but the Hokies have made strides in the secondary. They are middle of the pack in Passing Explosiveness Allowed but rank 13th in the country in Passing Success Rate Allowed.

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Marshall has already built the things Virginia Tech is looking to create. The Herd finished ninth in defensive SP+ last season and returned stars Micah Abraham, Eli Neal and Owen Porter from that excellent stop unit.

The offense is the definition of game management.

Cam Fancher is the quarterback, and his passing lines resemble the mediocre output of Drones and Wells. He will contribute in the rush game, too, but the star is running back Rasheen Ali, who averages 6.2 yards per carry and spearheads an offense that's first overall in Rushing Explosiveness.

But that's secondary to the defense. Marshall ranks top-25 nationally in defending Passing Explosiveness Allowed and Passing Success Rate Allowed. The Herd rank top-10 in Finishing Drives. They can be beaten by the big rush — ranking sub-100 in Rush Explosiveness Allowed — but we already covered Virginia Tech’s lack of a ground game.

The Herd rank 18th in Defensive Rush Success Rate.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia Tech and Marshall match up statistically:

Virginia Tech Offense vs. Marshall Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	119	18
Line Yards	127	28
Pass Success	74	13
Havoc	69	44
Finishing Drives	81	6
Quality Drives	104	37

Marshall Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	124	118
Line Yards	133	124
Pass Success	25	30
Havoc	106	94
Finishing Drives	120	106
Quality Drives	106	69

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	101	97
PFF Coverage	113	31
Special Teams SP+	51	94
Middle 8	48	127
Seconds per Play	26.0 (54)	25.6 (43)
Rush Rate	50.5% (95)	49.6% (82)

Neither team will do much on offense, although Marshall has an advantage with Rasheen Ali, the best offensive player in this game and a truly dangerous game breaker.

Marshall has been winning with this identity for over a year, while Virginia Tech is still struggling to find its identity.

In a game without much offense, Marshall has the home-field advantage, the health advantage (it's coming off an early bye week) and an identity advantage.

I’ll lay the points with the home team at anything under a touchdown.