The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Missouri Tigers in the 2025 Gator Bowl in Jacksonville on Saturday, Dec. 27. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Missouri is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. Virginia, meanwhile, enters as a +4 underdog and is +154 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Missouri prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 27.
Virginia Cavaliers vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, Picks
- Virginia vs. Missouri Pick: 1H Under 21.5 · Missouri -4.5 or Better
My Missouri vs. Virginia best bet is on both teams to go under the first-half total and the Tigers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Virginia vs Missouri Odds, Lines, Spread
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | +154 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | -185 |
- Virginia vs Missouri Spread: Missouri -4, Virginia +4
- Virginia vs Missouri Over/Under: 43.5
- Virginia vs Missouri Moneyline: Virginia ML +154, Missouri ML -185
Virginia vs Missouri NCAAF Preview
Virginia Cavaliers
Nearly every major contributor to the successful 2025 campaign is an opt-out candidate for Virginia. The focus will be on quarterback Chandler Morris and running back J'Mari Taylor for the offense.
The Cavaliers are not a successful offense in terms of methodical drives, but a top-20 rank in rush explosives points back to the ground game's heavy usage of zone read.
Taylor and Morris have combined for 32 rushing gains of 10 yards or more, while running back Harrison Waylee generated 3.7 yards after first contact in 98 carries as a backup.
The Hoos defense is expected to retain top tackler Devin Neal and leading pressure man Mitchell Melton. Virginia comes in as one of the best Havoc-minded defenses in the nation, thanks to a top-10 ranking in passes defensed.
The nickel package thrived in Cover 1 with a 62% Success Rate against the pass, finishing the season in the top 20 in PFF coverage grading.
Teams that fell into passing downs against Virginia didn't have much luck avoiding a punt. The Cavaliers are a top-25 team in limiting passing downs efficiency and explosives.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula entered the transfer portal, meaning backup Matt Zollers will likely start his third game of the year.
The Tigers had poor passing numbers throughout the season, slipping into the top 50 in Success Rate and out of the top 100 in explosives.
The loss of wide receivers Joshua Manning and Marquis Johnson to the portal removes 98 targets from the Tigers offense.
As of writing, sophomore running back Ahmad Hardy is expected to give Missouri the boost needed for a punishing ground attack.
Hardy forced 86 missed tackles this season, ranking as one of the most elusive backs in college football, while averaging 4.6 yards after first contact. He was a master in space for the outside zone read run concept, helping Mizzou end the season as a top-25 team in Success Rate and explosives.
With Zollers expected to have minimal impact in the passing game, Hardy is the key to the Missouri offense that dominated on the ground this season.
Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon called an elite multiple-nickel look that finished as a top-five unit in pass rush. Edge rushers Damon Wilson II and Zion Young are on opt-out watch list after contributing 97 pressures this season.
Not only did the Tigers create pressure, but the defense also finished sixth in contested catch rate, per Sports Info Solutions. Teams opting to run the ball on Missouri also failed, as the Tigers limited all run concepts in EPA allowed.
Virginia vs Missouri Gator Bowl Picks
Virginia exceeded expectations this year despite a loss to Duke in the ACC Championship. The 10-win season was a bit of smoke and mirrors, as the Hoos ended the 2025 campaign with an eight-win second-order win total.
UVA's offensive success in the Gator Bowl will come down to Taylor and Morris creating explosives on the ground.
Virginia runs a split between inside and outside zone reads, an area Missouri has dominated this season. The Tigers have a heavy 64% Success Rate against outside zone and limit all zone-read opponents to an explosive on just one of every 17 attempts.
Hardy should have more success against the Virginia defense on the ground.
Missouri runs exclusively zone-read and man-blocking concepts, each with a Success Rate of 56%. The Tigers will have success lining up with man or gap blocking assignments for the offensive line, as the Cavaliers have a 49% Success Rate against the concept.
Virginia struggles in allowing broken tackles compared to Missouri, as the Tigers are the top defense nationally in broken tackles allowed.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings projects Missouri as a touchdown favorite if all contributors played for each roster.
A dip in the number came after Pribula entered the portal, but as long as Hardy is still in the backfield for Missouri, there are no worries that the offense will thrive in rushing attempts. Wait closer to kickoff to verify that Hardy is, indeed, playing in the Gator Bowl.
A first-half under is also required with quarterbacks who should have limited success in the passing game.
Pick: 1H Under 21.5 · Missouri -4.5 or Better
