UNLV vs Air Force Prediction, Odds, Pick: Target This Total

The top of the Mountain West Conference is on the line on Saturday afternoon. Air Force hosts UNLV in a matchup of the two teams tied atop the league standings.

UNLV comes into this with an 8-2 record and in the midst of a two-game winning streak. The Rebels are an incredible 9-1 against the spread and have gone under the total in half of their games this season.

Air Force enters this game with an 8-2 record but is riding a two-game losing streak after a dominant 8-0 start to the season. The Falcons are 4-6 against the spread and have gone under in six games this season.

Fall temperatures will be in the air at kickoff. It will range from 48-56 degrees during the game. Steady cross-winds ranging from 3.2 to 4.7 miles per hour will be present throughout.

With no precipitation in the forecast and generally moderate conditions, weather is unlikely to impact the game in a meaningful way.

Let's dive into the UNLV vs. Air Force odds and find a pick and prediction for Saturday's Mountain West college football matchup.

Barry Odom's first season at UNLV is on pace to be the Rebels' first winning season since 2013.

UNLV is averaging 36.4 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. The offense has a 44% Success Rate and averages 4.26 Points per Opportunity. It also allows a Havoc Rate of 13% which ranks 21st nationally.

The UNLV offense leans heavily on the running game, as it ranks 117th in passing play rate at 42%.

The Rebels offense averages 42.1 rush attempts per game for an average of 4.6 yards per carry. Three players have at least 85 carries with Vincent Davis leading the team at 100 carries.

As a team, UNLV averages 195.7 rushing yards per game and has a 42% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line generates 3.11 Line Yards per carry and allows a 15.4% Stuff Rate.

Through the air, Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,058 yards and 11 touchdowns with just four interceptions. He's completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 8.9 yards per attempt. As a team, UNLV has a 48% Passing Success Rate.

UNLV allows 24.3 points per game and 5.8 yards per play, while opposing offenses have averaged a 41% Success Rate.

The Rebels have struggled to get opponents off of the field. Their 13% Havoc Rate ranks 125th nationally, and they allow 4.0 Points per Opportunity to rank 92nd.

They also struggle with preventing big plays, allowing 5.7 plays over 20 yards per game with 57 total 20-plus yard plays allowed — the 12th-most in the FBS.

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After an 8-0 start, Troy Calhoun's team has struggled in back-to-back games.

Air Force averages 28.5 points per game and 5.8 yards per play with a 49% Success Rate and an average of 4.37 Points per Opportunity. It ranks third with just a 9% Havoc Rate Allowed.

Unsurprisingly, the Falcons play at the slowest pace in the nation at 32.2 seconds per play.

As is expected with any academy school, the passing game is mostly an afterthought. Air Force has a 12% passing rate, which is last in the FBS.

But when the Falcons do pass, they're highly efficient.

Quarterback Zac Larrier has completed 59.7% of his 62 pass attempts for an average of 12.0 yards per attempt. He's thrown for 744 yards and six touchdowns. As a team, Air Force has a 47% Passing Success Rate and averages 1.4 20-plus yard passes per game.

The Air Force offense averages 54.9 rush attempts per game. While six players have at least 25 carries, the two centerpieces of the running game are Larrier and fullback Emmanuel Michel.

Michel leads the team with 733 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, while Larrier adds 579 yards and five scored. As a team, the Falcons own a 49% Rushing Success Rate, while the offensive line generates 3.56 Line Yards per attempt and allows just an 8.5% Stuff Rate.

The Air Force defense has been a strength as a complement to its methodical offense. It's allowed 15.7 points per game and 4.3 yards per play.

Opposing offenses have just a 39% Success Rate and score 3.72 Points per Opportunity.

The Falcons create Havoc on 17% of plays, but the biggest strength of this defense is its ability to limit explosiveness. This unit has allowed the fewest plays over 10 yards in the FBS and allow just 2.5 20-plus yard plays per game.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and Air Force match up statistically:

UNLV Offense vs. Air Force Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	80	37
Line Yards	78	18
Pass Success	16	22
Havoc	59	44
Finishing Drives	32	88
Quality Drives	8	17

Air Force Offense vs. UNLV Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	22	47
Line Yards	6	54
Pass Success	9	123
Havoc	2	24
Finishing Drives	30	86
Quality Drives	21	43

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	22	6
PFF Coverage	100	7
Special Teams SP+	13	62
Middle 8	49	32
Seconds per Play	25.6 (39)	32.2 (133)
Rush Rate	60.7% (16)	88.3% (1)

As of writing, the betting is generally split on the 3-point spread. Approximately 61% of bets are on Air Force, but only 51% of the money has landed on the Falcons.

The total of 47.5 doesn't have the same split, as 98% of bets are on the under.

At first glance, my lean is on Air Force to cover the spread, but its current form is holding it back from being my preferred play. If Air Force's offense is reminiscent of the first eight games of the year, it should find consistent success against a porous defense.

But one thing is clear in this game — Air Force is going to control the pace of play with its offensive style and ability to limit explosive plays. These two factors point toward long drives and make the under my preferred play on this game.

Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)

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