UCF vs Kansas Odds
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
The Big 12 gives us an electric matchup as the UCF Knights head to Lawrence, Kansas, to battle the Jayhawks.
The Knights come into this matchup stumbling, losing their first two Big 12 games.
However, they can get back on track quickly as their starting quarterback — John Rhys Plumlee — is fully cleared and returned to practice this week. While Plumlee is certainly an upgrade, UCF has put up 80 points in the last two weeks without him.
The Jayhawks also have a big question mark at quarterback. They enter this matchup at 4-1.
With the most critical position on the field being a relatively unknown for both sides, what's the best way to bet on this matchup?
Let's dive into our UCF vs. Kansas prediction and pick.
UCF Knights
The Knights' offense is electric.
They come into this matchup fourth in the country in yards per play and 23rd in points per game.
UCF's offense is a mixture of tempo and consistency. The Knights are 22nd in the country in seconds per play and second in yards per rush. Their consistent push in the run game means they score plentifully and quickly.
There's no one better to run the offense than Plumlee. He's missed the last few weeks with a knee injury, but he's returned to practice after being medically cleared.
At the time of writing, Thursday afternoon, we've seen a significant line flip in favor of UCF, so it's safe to assume Plumlee will be playing.
With Plumlee back at the helm, the Knights have the potential to operate at full throttle and run over a Kansas defense that's 94th in yards per rush allowed.
Kansas is also 106th in opponent completion percentage allowed. Those two metrics have led to the Jayhawks being 129th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Kansas Jayhawks
The Kansas offense may have to operate without starting quarterback Jalon Daniels. Daniels sustained a back injury in last week's game against Texas and didn't return.
Our own Brett McMurphy reported an official update.
Kansas QB Jason Bean will make his 3rd start of season vs. UCF, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. Jalon Daniels, preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of Year, missed last week’s game vs. Texas w/back issues & his availability vs. UCF will be determined Saturday
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) October 5, 2023
With the offense in the hands of Jason Bean, we will likely see the Jayhawks rely on the rushing attack.
Kansas has dialed up a rush on nearly 60% of play calls, and it's dominated when doing so.
Kansas is 22nd in yards per carry. Bean is plenty mobile, averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season.
UCF has also had difficulties stopping the run, ranking 74th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 91st in Defensive Line Yards.
However, Bean is a less efficient passer and lacks the explosiveness of Daniels through the air. If the Knights can contain the ground game, the game will fall into the hands of Bean.
UCF vs Kansas
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and Kansas match up statistically:
UCF Offense vs. Kansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 65 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 76 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 3 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 129 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 106 | |
Kansas Offense vs. UCF Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 31 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 89 | |
| Quality Drives | 45 | 65 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 89 | 92 |
| PFF Coverage | 86 | 40 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 66 | 4 |
| Middle 8 | 19 | 38 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.2 (22) | 29.3 (109) |
| Rush Rate | 59.5% (17) | 59.7% (19) |
UCF vs Kansas
Betting Pick & Prediction
We dove through the quarterback issues on both sides, and it's clear which side has the edge.
UCF's offense has the potential to be dynamic with the return of Plumlee. The Knights should be able to move the ball almost at will and put a ton of pressure on the Jayhawks with their tempo.
The line likely flipped because of the Plumlee and Daniels news reports. But the news also shifted this matchup in favor of the Knights.
Back UCF to get the job done on the road.
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