College Football Predictions, Picks, Odds: Thursday Bets for Wake Forest vs Duke, TCU vs Texas Tech & More
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured (clockwise from top-left): Troy’s Gunnar Watson, TCU’s Emani Bailey, Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks and Duke’s Jordan Waters.
- Thursday's college football slate features three games.
- Our staff broke down Wake Forest vs Duke, TCU vs Texas Tech and South Alabama vs Troy and came through with a prediction for each.
- Check out all three bets for Thursday's college football games below.
Thursday night football is upon us — both at the professional and collegiate levels.
Along with the NFL's Titans vs. Steelers game, we have three intriguing college games on the docket: Texas Tech vs. TCU, Duke vs. Wake Forest and Troy vs. South Alabama.
Our NCAAF staff came through with in-depth betting previews with a pick for all three matchups, so let's dive into the college footballpredictions, picks and odds.
Thursday College Football Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
TCU vs. Texas Tech
Two teams that were projected to finish in the upper echelon of the Big 12 face off on Thursday night in Lubbock.
Unfortunately for both, the 2023 season hasn't gone according to plan.
The new reality for both the Horned Frogs and Red Raiders is a fight for bowl eligibility, which makes Thursday night's battle all the more important.
So, let's discuss the betting value and make a TCU vs. Texas Tech picks and prediction.
After a dream start to the Sonny Dykes era in 2022, things have changed quickly in Fort Worth.
The loss of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley was significant, and obviously, Max Duggan played at a sensational level a year ago.
Those departures grab the headlines, but the bigger drop-off may be on the defensive side of the ball.
Last week, Kansas State amassed 587 yards of total offense and converted 10-of-13 third-down attempts in a 41-3 win over the Frogs. TCU needs to do a better job of stopping the run to take some pressure off of its secondary.
Offensively, Chandler Morris started the year at quarterback, but Josh Hoover has taken over.
The youngster, as expected, has been up and down since taking over.
Look for Hoover to take some chances down the field against a Tech defense that has surrendered some big plays.
When you look at the 3-5 record, you'd think Texas Tech was one of the worst in the Power 5. However, I don't think that tells the full story.
Texas Tech has been decimated by injuries, including to its top two quarterbacks, and a litany of players on the defensive side.
Add in the fact that the Red Raiders are 0-3 in games that have been decided by one score, and it's easy to see how the wheels have fallen off a little bit for Joey McGuire in Year 2.
With games still remaining against Kansas and Texas, the Red Raiders must handle business at home if they want any chance to participate in the postseason.
Getting Behren Morton back from a shoulder injury should be a big boost for the offense. When Morton tried to play in recent weeks, he was a shell of himself and was clearly dealing with a lot of pain.
It sounds like this past week was the first week in which he was able to fully partake in practice and throw without restriction.
Defensively, the Red Raiders need to do a better job of creating negative plays and taking the ball away.
They check in at 98th out of 133 FBS teams in our Havoc Rankings and haven't gotten off the field at critical points in many of their losses.
TCU vs Texas Tech
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm gonna back the home team as a small favorite in what is basically a must-win for Texas Tech's bowl hopes.
The importance of Morton's return can't be understated, especially given how shaky Jake Strong looked at quarterback.
Additionally, Tahj Brooks should be in line for another huge day on the ground against a Horned Frogs front that has struggled to stop the run.
Hoover and the TCU offense will hit a few plays down the field, but I've got more confidence in the Red Raiders to get some timely stops than I do in TCU's defense.
Lastly, despite the 3-5 record, Texas Tech's fans are seemingly always out in full force for prime-time games, which should give a nice lift to a team that desperately needs a win.
Wake Forest vs. Duke
Injuries can quickly derail a season, and Duke (5-3) is no exception.
Following a 4-0 start to the year, an injury to quarterback Riley Leonard against Notre Dame has thrown a wrench into Mike Elko’s second season in Durham. Once a dark-horse contender to play for the ACC Championship, Duke has now lost three of its last four games.
Wake Forest (4-4) has dealt with quarterback injuries of its own, and it’s quickly running out of winnable games to secure a bowl berth.
The Demon Deacons likely need a win Thursday night — with remaining games against NC State, Notre Dame and Syracuse — to keep their streak of seven straight bowl games intact.
Both offenses have faded down the stretch. Is either one set go off for the first time in a month? Let's dive into the Wake Forest vs Duke odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Thursday, Nov. 2.
Starting quarterback Mitch Griffis returned to the Demon Deacon lineup last week, but it did nothing to elevate an offense that’s struggled since the calendar changed from September. The sophomore quarterback completed just six of his 16 passes for 82 yards in Wake Forest’s 41-16 loss to Florida State.
Since opening the season with four straight games of at least 400 yards, Wake Forest’s offense has come crashing back down to earth. In their last four games, the Demon Deacons have broken 20 points just once and have averaged 258.5 yards of total offense.
A big reason for the struggle, regardless of who’s been at quarterback, has been poor offensive line play. Wake Forest is 120th in Havoc Allowed, and Colorado is the only Power 5 team to have allowed more than Wake’s 36 sacks.
Defensively, Wake Forest has similarly declined in recent weeks despite playing bottom-half ACC offenses — Florida State notwithstanding.
In their last three games, the Deacs became one of just two teams to allow over 450 yards of offense to Virginia Tech, and they allowed 414 yards to Pitt — a season-high for the Panthers against FBS competition.
Wake’s defense, which ranks 35th in Rush Success Allowed, has performed better against the run than the pass.
That could play into its hand this week against a Duke offense that's struggled to pass since Leonard’s injury and his return since.
After one of the best starts to the season in recent Duke history, the injury bug has begun to bear its wrath on the Duke offense.
A hobbled Leonard and mounting injuries on the offensive line have all contributed to what is now a five-quarter scoreless stretch for Duke.
The Blue Devils, who were blanked last week by Louisville, had to play without potential first-round NFL Draft pick Graham Barton at the left tackle position for the whole game and lost starting right guard Jacob Monk during it.
Leonard, who may have prematurely returned from his ankle injury, completed single-digit passes for the second week in a row and was sacked four times.
In the four games against FBS competition up to and including the one vs. Notre Dame in which Leonard suffered a late injury, Duke averaged 378 yards of offense and 30.3 points. In the three games since, the Blue Devils are averaging just 258.7 yards and 14.7 points.
Duke’s defense is decent, but it’s not good enough to win games if the offense is going to struggle like it recently has. The Blue Devils excel at coverage (10th) and have the third-best pass defense in the ACC (171.6 yards per game), but their front seven has struggled.
Duke ranks 77th and 92nd in Rush Success Allowed and Line Yards, respectively, and it may not be able to take advantage of Wake’s poor offensive line. Duke comes in at just 11th in the ACC with 17 sacks.
Wake Forest vs Duke
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither of these teams did much in October to inspire any sort of confidence going forward. Wake has struggled against ACC defenses, while the injuries on Duke’s offense just keep piling up.
Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, the short week isn’t going to help Leonard’s ankle just five days after facing a ton of pressure against Louisville.
Duke’s defense isn’t spectacular, but it’s fantastic at limiting explosive plays, which will force a run-heavy Wake Forest offense to slowly matriculate the ball down the field.
The total has gone under in five of Wake’s last six games, and I think we’re headed there again against Duke.
South Alabama vs. Troy
By Dan Keegan
South Alabama heads to Troy to meet its in-state rival in a rematch of one of the best Group of Five games from last season.
This year’s game features a total in the mid-40s, and Troy favored by a handful.
The Trojans offense has improved in 2023, but their historic 2022 defense has regressed. South Alabama has a good offense, but the health of quarterback Carter Bradley is in question.
Let's not waste any more time and get right to the matchup. Here's my South Alabama vs. Troy prediction and betting pick.
Kane Wommack’s outfit entered 2023 with visions of getting revenge against Troy and claiming the Sun Belt West as its own.
The Jaguars brought back a squadron of returners on both sides of the ball but have been done in by unfocused play and a tough schedule and are now 4-4.
While the dream of the division crown is nearly dead, the rivalry revenge is still real. However, that'll get a lot harder if Bradley can’t suit up.
The Toledo transfer has started the past two seasons in Mobile. He has completed 62% of his passes for 2,156 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Additionally, his QBR is 70, good for 30th in the country.
But he suffered a knee injury on the final play last week against Louisiana. He's been practicing this week, but his status won't be official until closer to game time.
If he can’t go, his replacement will likely either be Desmond Trotter, a fifth-year senior who has started some contests but lost his role to Bradley, or Gio Lopez, a precocious freshman talent who has 15 career passes, all in mop-up duty.
Regardless of who starts, they'll have the luxuries of handing the ball to La’Damian Webb and throwing to Caullin Lacy, two of the most productive players in the Sun Belt. Webb has rushed for 5.7 yards per carry and found the end zone 13 times, while Lacey ranks second in the country with 957 receiving yards.
All told, they power a very good offense. The Jaguars' attack is 36th in Success Rate, ninth in explosives and 11th in Finishing Drives.
The defense is a good unit for the Group of Five but not an impenetrable one. It's better against the run (61st in EPA/play) and leaky against the pass (94th in EPA/play).
Troy’s offense is going to run the ball a lot with Kimani Vidal. He has a lot of yards, but the team’s rush efficiency metrics aren't stellar.
However, Troy's offense has found a newly explosive passing game and ranks sixth in the country in big-play passing. Conversely, the Jaguars rank 95th in defending such plays.
The defending champions weren't themselves to open the season.
They dropped a pair of early games to Kansas State and James Madison, and the defense looked questionable.
However, a revitalized passing attack and a return to form on defense has led the Trojans to a five-game win streak. They're also back in the top 25 in defensive SP+.
It was always going to be tough to match last year’s top-10 finish in that metric, but this is still one of the best stop units in the Group of Five. Despite losing coordinator Shiel Wood and a host of starters from last year, the Trojans are still 24th in Success Rate Allowed, 31st in Havoc and 33rd in Finishing Drives.
More importantly, they have allowed just 23 combined points in their past four contests.
The offense has improved from last season. Vidal is a workhorse and has had two games with over 245 rushing yards. He's third in the nation in rush yards, but Troy's Success Rate on the ground sits at just 105th. However, the Trojans are 35th in rushing explosives.
The efficiency/big-play split is even more pronounced in Gunnar Watson’s passing. The Trojans are 90th through the air in Success Rate but sixth in big plays.
Jabre Barber has been Watson’s favorite target (38 catches), but Chris Lewis' ability to take the top off the defense has been a welcome addition to Troy's offense, as he's averaging 23.1 yards per catch.
South Alabama vs Troy
Betting Pick & Prediction
Bradley’s injury adds a difficult wrinkle. If he's healthy and looks right, I think both teams will score. I'm intrigued by the over and by the live betting possibilities.
I'm also intrigued by a Troy second-half bet. The Trojans have been dominating Sun Belt opponents in the second half, and that could certainly be the recipe again in front of the home crowd.
But ultimately I'm going to keep it simple and ride with the defending champs.
This defense is white-hot right now, and I think it'll be able to create big scoring plays through the air against a dicey South Alabama secondary. The Jaguars' question mark at quarterback only strengthens my conviction.
Our staff has plenty of college football bets, Check out our sportsbook reviews and choose your new sportbook today!
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