Texas Tech vs Baylor Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 60.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 60.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
Neither Baylor nor Texas Tech has gotten off to the kind of start it wanted to so far this season.
Saturday night stands as an opportunity for one of the two to get back to .500 and stay alive in the Big 12 race. This is essentially a Big 12 elimination game for all intents and purposes.
The good news for each is that they enter Saturday's contest fresh off of a victory. Baylor notched a miraculous comeback win over UCF in Orlando last week and Tech handled Houston at home.
Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Texas Tech vs. Baylor below.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The margins between success and failure in college football are razor thin, and there are few who can attest to that more than Joey McGuire.
Tech had one of the trickier non-conference schedules in the country, which started with a trip to Laramie in the opener to face one of the best Group of Five teams in the country in Wyoming. After the Red Raiders took a 17-0 first-half lead, the Cowboys stormed back to win in overtime 35-33.
Then the Red Raiders returned home to Lubbock to host one of the best teams in the entire country, the Oregon Ducks. Tech led that one for most of the second half before squandering the lead (and cover) late.
A team that easily could have entered Big 12 play 3-0 with a ton of momentum instead limped in at 1-2.
I still believe there's a chance Maguire and company can right the ship the remainder of this season, even with the injury to starting quarterback Tyler Shough. Sophomore quarterback Behren Morton has a ton of talent, and there are plenty of other playmakers in this Red Raider offense.
Defensively, there's room for improvement, as Tech is not generating any Havoc. The Red Raiders rank 127th out of 133 teams in the category, and the lack of Havoc hasn't allowed the offense a chance to capitalize on short fields.
Baylor Bears
Baylor's home loss to Texas State remains one of the biggest head-scratchers of the season to this point.
Dave Aranda's backbone is on the defensive end, but this Baylor team hasn't taken after its head coach. Even last week in a win, UCF gashed Baylor for 469 yards of total offense. If it weren't for two sloppy turnovers by the Knights, the Bears would enter this one 1-4.
Veteran quarterback Blake Shapen was injured in the opener, and his return last week certainly helped the Bears' offense. Shapen is a gamer, but he lacks elite arm talent and isn't super elusive in the pocket.
That's a real problem for a team with a weak offensive line that's already allowed 12 sacks on the year.
Baylor will need to lean on its ground game early to open up the pass if it wants to move the ball efficiently in a matchup against an aggressive Tech defense.
Texas Tech vs Baylor
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Baylor match up statistically:
Texas Tech Offense vs. Baylor Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 92 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 94 | |
| Pass Success | 92 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 55 | |
| Finishing Drives | 42 | 96 | |
| Quality Drives | 74 | 91 | |
Baylor Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 65 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 120 | 62 | |
| Quality Drives | 61 | 70 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 125 |
| PFF Coverage | 73 | 120 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 63 | 103 |
| Middle 8 | 62 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.7 (4) | 26.5 (59) |
| Rush Rate | 49.5% (103) | 49.6% (96) |
Texas Tech vs Baylor
Betting Pick & Prediction
I was pretty high on the Red Raiders entering the season and down on Baylor due to a plethora of losses up front on both sides of the ball.
I still view Texas Tech as the more complete football team — even with its bumpy start — and I expect the Red Raiders to win this one on the road in Waco.
Shapen's return gives the Bears a bit of a lift, but Tech should get whatever it wants through the air against a poor Baylor secondary.
Baylor doesn't possess the offensive balance to keep pace, and its offensive line continues to struggle with breakdowns in pass protection.
Baylor opened as a tiny favorite and that line has now moved in favor of the Red Raiders. I'll stick to the moneyline with such a small spread and back Tech to get the win here.
Guns Up!
