NCAAF Odds, Picks & Predictions: Texas State vs. Baylor Betting Guide

We have an interstate showdown on our hands in Week 1, as the Texas State Bobcats will travel to Waco to take on the Baylor Bears.

Both teams are entering the season with a renewed sense of optimism, but that optimism may have altered the total a bit too much.

Texas State has a brand new regime, as the mythical masterminds of the Incarnate Word offense from 2022 will get their opportunity to operate at the next level. However, can they continue to fly high against Power 5 competition?

On the other side, Baylor's rush-heavy attack is reloaded, but will its scheme actually play in our favor? Let's dive in to find out.

The Texas State Bobcats were far from an offensive juggernaut in 2022. They ranked 111th in scoring and 113th in total yards per game.

However, offensive expectations are renewed with the arrival of GJ Kinne.

Kinne has been pegged as an offensive genius, as he was the man behind last year's Incarnate Word offense that led the nation in scoring. While his offensive scheme will immediately open the door for more scoring from the Bobcats, it remains to be seen if they can execute against a Power 5 team.

Expectations have to be tempered, even against a Baylor defense that took a big step back in 2022. The Bears were far from a formidable defensive unit. Still, they have plenty of experience at the second and third levels, while also having addressed the defensive line in the transfer portal.

Look for Baylor's defense to come out motivated and put a damper on the hype around this Texas State offense.

We know by now what the Bears are going to do on offense. Head coach Dave Aranda and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes have made it a point to run the ball down opposing teams' throats, and we should expect no different this season.

The Bears rushed the ball at the 32nd-highest rate in the country and averaged 4.3 yards per carry as a team. It will be on sophomore running back Richard Reese to carry the load after a breakout freshman campaign that consisted of him rushing for 972 yards and posting 14 touchdowns.

However, he'll be far from alone in terms of touches in this system, as Oklahoma State transfer Dominic Richardson and another veteran back in Qualan Jones make up the rest of the backfield.

While quarterback Blake Shapen needs to take a step forward this season, it may be wise to keep the ball out of his hands and out of the air in general. Texas State is expected to embody defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke's aggressive attack that's predicated on creating pressure and forcing turnovers at a relentless rate.

The Bobcats' defense was excellent last year against the rush, and they replenished fairly well in the transfer portal while retaining an experienced secondary. We shouldn't expect smooth sailing from Baylor's offense despite the Bears being large favorites in this matchup.

This is a game where the total has gone on a bit of a rollercoaster ride since it opened. It shot up from the opening number of 56.5 to as high as 63.

However, it's begun to fall during the past week.

As I said, the market can be on the Bobcats' offense, but expectations must be tempered. The under has also picked up momentum when you figure that Baylor will be keeping the ball on the ground a majority of the time, and with the new clock rules, we could be in for some long, methodical drives.

Despite the total dropping from its peak, there's still value in the current number, and I don't believe it'll move back past the opening number.