"Is Texas back?"
After earning its first appearance in the College Football Playoff in program history, it's safe to say the answer is yes.
The Longhorns are 12-1 and made the CFP on the strength of four top-25 victories, including over No. 4 Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Texas will have a chance to play for the National Championship for the first time since 2009 and win it for the first time since the epic 2005 Rose Bowl. But the Horns have to beat Washington first.
Washington is another program with historical significance but little recent success. The Huskies made the College Football Playoff in 2016 and made two other New Year's Six bowls since 2010. But this year's group of Huskies are the best of the bunch, entering the CFP as undefeated Pac-12 Champions, knocking off Oregon (twice), Utah, USC and Oregon State along the way.
Washington's high-powered offense won the day with Michael Penix Jr. under center.
Penix will be opposed by Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns' Texas-born leader.
With a 62.5-point total and a fast track at the Superdome in New Orleans, we could see an offensive explosion. We might as well try to capitalize on that with a four-player, six-leg Sugar Bowl same-game parlay.
Michael Penix Jr. Over 309.5 Passing Yards
Penix is among the nation's most prolific passers all season, ranking seventh among FBS quarterbacks with 466 passing attempts and 14th with 9.1 yards per attempt.
As a result, Penix has nine 300-yard passing games this year, and he's cleared 310 yards in seven.
He began the year with six consecutive 300-yard games, including three 400-yard games. At one point, Penix's passing yards prop jumped to 381.5.
But we're getting a more reasonable number in the CFP.
Texas ranks third nationally in rushing yards per game allowed at 80.8. The Huskies rush offense has looked good in the back half of the year, so they haven't had to rely much on Penix.
But I don't think the Huskies can rely so heavily on its rush attack in this matchup.
And that's OK. Texas ranks 94th nationally in passing yards per game allowed at 240.8. The Horns have allowed 300 passing yards or more in five games this year, alongside 285 in the loss to Oklahoma.
The Longhorns will struggle to defend Washington's talented corps of receivers, particularly Rome Odunze.
Rome Odunze 100+ Receiving Yards (-104) & Anytime TD (-150)
Washington has three receivers who could be drafted this spring: Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja'Lynn Polk.
After a phenomenal junior year, Odunze should be the first to hear his name called.
Odunze ranks third nationally with 1,418 receiving yards and 33rd with 17.6 receiving yards per game. He's averaging a whopping 110 receiving yards per game this year, eclipsing 100 in nine of 13 games.
He's also made a big impact in Washington's two biggest games this year, racking up 230 yards and two scores on 16 catches in two contests against Oregon. However, he also racked up 100-plus yards against Utah, Oregon State and Washington State, adding six touchdowns against those three.
Odunze has found the end zone in eight of his 13 games this year. He posted at least 100 receiving yards in six of those games.
Additionally, Penix's best games this season coincided with Odunze's. If Penix throws for 300 yards, Odunze will likely have 100 of them and hopefully find the end zone.
Quinn Ewers 300+ Passing Yards (+118)
Ewers took a big leap in his second season as a starter as he improved his consistency and accuracy. He improved his completion percentage by 12 points to 70.7%, which helped him throw for 3,000 yards for the first time in his career.
Ewers has thrown for 300 yards or more in five of 11 games this season. However, he didn't play the fourth quarter in two games because of blowouts and against Houston, he had 211 passing yards in the first half before leaving with an injury.
Like Penix, Ewers also loves to take deep shots, averaging nine yards per attempt. He has at least one 30-yard completion in 10 of 11 games this year and a 40-yard completion in seven. He has six touchdown passes of 30 yards or longer.
Playing in the Pac-12 was not fun for many defenses this season, and Washington ranks 123rd nationally with 263.1 passing yards allowed per game. Washington has allowed 300 passing yards five times this season and 260 or more in two others. The team total for both teams is 29.5 or higher, and I wouldn't be surprised if each team soared over it.
That means the game script will call for Ewers to throw to keep pace with Penix. In doing so, he may connect with Adonai Mitchell early and often.
Adonai Mitchell 60+ Receiving Yards (-104) & Anytime TD (+110)
Xavier Worthy may be WR1 for Texas, but Adonai Mitchell leads the Longhorns with 10 touchdown receptions. He has scored in eight of 13 games this year.
Mitchell is no stranger to playing on this stage, as he made the playoffs in his first two seasons at Georgia. As a Bulldog, Mitchell scored in all four CFP games he played in.
Ewers has already said he'll be counting on Mitchell and looking to extend that streak to five. If Mitchell scores, it may be on a deep ball. He averages 15.5 yards per catch with three 30-plus-yard touchdowns.
A 30-yard touchdown would work fine for this parlay, putting him halfway to his receiving line. Mitchell has reached 60 five times this season and had 59 in another game. He's entering the CFP with momentum after he had 109 yards and a touchdown in the Big 12 Championship game.
Additionally, Troy Franklin had 139 and 154 receiving in his previous two games against Washington. However, in the Pac-12 Championship, the Huskies bracketed him, and he had only four catches for 34 yards.
If Washington utilizes a similar strategy against Texas, the Huskies would focus on taking away Worthy. That would give Mitchell more one-on-one opportunities, and I don't think Ewers will miss him.
Texas vs Washington Same Game Parlay
- Michael Penix Jr. Over 309.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Rome Odunze 100+ Receiving Yards (-104) and Anytime TD (-150)
- Quinn Ewers 300+ Passing Yards (+118) and Anytime TD (+110)
- Adonai Mitchell 60+ Receiving Yards (-118) and Anytime TD (+110)
Parlay Odds: +1287 via FanDuel
Use our FanDuel Promo Code to get the most out of your Michigan vs Alabama action.
