San Diego State vs Hawaii Picks
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
For Saturday’s nightcap, San Diego State will travel out to Hawaii to take on the Rainbow Warriors. Both of these teams are sitting at 2-4 on the year and will be looking to pick up their first conference win.
While neither of these teams have been good this year, this will be one of the more winnable games on each of their schedules.
However, there's one side of this matchup that I believe may have a clear advantage.
Let’s dive into my San Diego State vs Hawaii picks and predictions.
San Diego State Aztecs
Brady Hoke’s current tenure at SDSU hasn't been going well. The Aztecs had built up a reputation for having one of the toughest defenses in the nation, but that's no longer the case. San Diego State currently ranks just 129th in Defensive Success Rate.
The rush defense for this team has been especially bad, ranking last in FBS (133rd) in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 129th in Rushing PPA Allowed.
The passing defense has been marginally better, ranking 91st in Success Rate.
However, looking at SDSU’s schedule gives more insight into its issues. It's played a fairly tough schedule of opponents, particularly on offense. Every FBS opponent the Aztecs have faced this year — besides one — ranks inside of the top 55 in Offensive Success Rate.
Now, I’m not making excuses for San Diego State’s wretched defensive performance, but Hawaii will certainly be the worst offense the Aztecs have faced to this point, so a slight bump in performance could potentially be expected.
Offensively, the Aztecs have performed much better. They're 45th in Success Rate, including a ranking of 34th when rushing and 62nd when passing.
Their main issue on that side of the ball this season has been their inability to generate any explosive plays. SDSU is 120th in Passing Explosiveness and 116th in Rushing Explosiveness, putting it at 128th overall.
The offense does appear to be trending up in the last few weeks. In the first two games they had against FBS opponents, SDSU had just 35th- and 32nd-percentile Offensive Success Rates.
However, in the last three weeks against Oregon State, Boise State and Air Force, this has improved to performances in the 81st, 70th, and 71st percentiles, respectively.
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Hawaii Warriors
Hawaii has struggled on both sides of the ball to begin the year. The Warriors rank 117th in Success Rate and 121st in Finishing Drives.
They've had zero running game to speak of, as they throw the ball at the highest rate in the country.
This has resulted in just the 93rd-best Success Rate, but they do rank 64th in Passing Explosiveness.
Leading this unit has been Brayden Schager, who's averaging -0.05 EPA per dropback.
Defensively, Hawaii ranks 91st in Success Rate Allowed. The Warriors are 70th against the pass but 96th against the run, which may cause issues against San Diego State.
They're also 116th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed and 113th in Rushing PPA Allowed, so they may be in for a tough day.
San Diego State vs Hawaii
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Hawaii match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 97 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 96 | |
| Havoc | 92 | 46 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 113 | |
| Quality Drives | 98 | 130 | |
Hawaii Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 122 | 133 | |
| Line Yards | 125 | 129 |  |
| Pass Success | 95 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 116 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 81 | |
| Quality Drives | 53 | 114 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 130 |
| PFF Coverage | 99 | 109 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 55 | 85 |
| Middle 8 | 96 | 101 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.0 (117) | 27.1 (73) |
| Rush Rate | 56.4% (49) | 38.5% (133) |
San Diego State vs Hawaii
Betting Pick & Prediction
Unfortunately, for Hawaii, all of its strengths and weaknesses are neutralized by San Diego State. Hawaii passes the ball more often than not, but this would be playing right into SDSU’s best attribute on defense while steering away from the Aztecs' brutal run defense.
Additionally, San Diego State’s rushing offense will be able to have a field day against Hawaii's putrid rushing defense.
I believe that this is just a bad matchup for Hawaii. Laying almost a touchdown with this San Diego State team is tough to stomach, but I believe there's a chance that it could win big on the road.
Right now, you can actually grab this on some books at -5.5, so I would take this before a possible move to -6.
