Penn State vs Michigan Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 45 -105 / -115 | +175 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 45 -105 / -115 | -210 |
By John Feltman
Another Big Noon Saturday where Penn State will have its backs up against the wall as the Michigan Wolverines head to Happy Valley.
There's so much at stake in this game, and it should be a classic confrontation.
It looks like our Action Network team is quite torn on what side they want to ride with in this matchup. All I can say is, James Franklin needs this game pretty badly. It’s now or never for Franklin, as his Nittany Lions will have a shot to make the College Football Playoff with a victory on Saturday afternoon.
A multitude of scenarios need to work themselves out before then, but none of that matters if the Nittany Lions lose on Saturday. That would essentially end their season abruptly.
For Michigan, it's been the talk of the college football landscape for the past month, and none of it has been about its undefeated football team. Connor Stalions has become a household name, and Jim Harbaugh is under the most fire he has ever been in his coaching tenure.
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy will look to keep his Heisman hopes alive with a win, but that can all go up in flames with a poor performance on Saturday afternoon.
It’s tough to say which side is under the most pressure, but this is a game you do not want to miss.
Let’s see what our Action Network team came up with as they broke down the side and total, as well as other way to bet this top-10 divisional showdown.
Penn State vs Michigan Spread
Split Decision
Our staff is torn on the consensus angle for this game with a slight lean toward laying the chalk in State College.
A reasonably strong case can be made in favor of taking or laying the points; however, a couple of things do jump out that likely tilted oddsmakers more heavily in Michigan’s favor.
On offense, both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense, with Michigan ranking fifth (40.7) and Penn State ranking sixth (40.2) in FBS.
The Wolverine offense is led by J.J. McCarthy, the nation's second-ranked quarterback in terms of QBR, whereas Penn State is still looking for a statement game from Drew Allar, who comes in at No. 25.
While both teams have very good offenses, defense has arguably been the statement unit of each team. Again, similar to their stacking on offense, both Michigan and Penn State rank in the top three nationally in scoring defense. Michigan enters the game as the best scoring defense (6.7) in the nation, while Penn State (11.9) ranks ranked third.
At the same time, the Nittany Lions lead the nation in Defensive Success Rate, while the Wolverines come in at second.
The Action Network PRO Model projects the spread for this game at -3.6 in Michigan’s favor. Nonetheless, it's worth noting that a variety of other models and statisticians all have projected Michigan as a favorite but typically around a point-and-a-half.
Both teams match up very closely on macro team-level statistics, but there's an inherent benefit to playing at home in this annual Big Ten grudge match that could make the case for taking the points.
Michigan will come into the game with the more experienced quarterback in McCarthy and he will likely be the difference-maker late in the game as we await a statement game from Allar.
Penn State vs Michigan Over/Under
Over 45.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 45.5 | 4 Picks |
Split Decision
Our staff favors backing the over in this matchup featuring two of the best defenses in the nation — but just barely.
While this may be a contrarian bet to an extent, we have reasonably strong convictions surrounding the ability of both teams to put up enough points.
Both teams will have to overcome excellent defenses, but each opposing offense has shown a propensity to put up points this season.
Michigan has the fifth-ranked scoring offense in the nation, putting up an average of 40.7 points per game. The Wolverine offense is quarterbacked by J.J. McCarthy, the fifth-ranked quarterback in the nation, per PFF.
McCarthy has demonstrated over the last two seasons that he's one of the best in the nation and should have no problem rising to the occasion in this high-stakes game.
Penn State comes in just behind Michigan in scoring offense at sixth in the nation, averaging 40.2 points per contest this season. Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar will be integral to Penn State’s ability to contribute to the scoreboard.
After the freshman struggled against Ohio State earlier, PSU head coach James Franklin has reacted accordingly by allowing Allar to sling it around more in recent weeks. That move has paid off, as Allar has thrown for 450 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in his past two games.
As a staff, we like backing these offenses to put up points. While baseline expectations are high for McCarthy, we think Allar can put up a respectable performance that will be better than his last showing against Ohio State.
The Action Network PRO Model projects the spread for this game at 50.2 points which clearly skews in favor of the over and represents a 7.5% edge to the current market of 45.
Lastly, the weather for Saturday’s noon kickoff looks excellent for fall football with a forecast of partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 40s.
Back these star quarterbacks to air it out as we bet the over in this pivotal Big Ten matchup.
More Ways to Bet Penn State vs Michigan
J.J. McCarthy Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
Play to 17.5
By Alex Hinton
J.J. McCarthy has played himself into the Heisman race, but it has been more because of his arm. He ranks second nationally in QBR and has an 18:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
However, McCarthy has added 137 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground this season. He has run for 15 yards or more in five of his nine games this season despite Michigan not relying on his legs a ton.
McCarthy has three rushing attempts or fewer in five games this season. However, four of the games in which he went over this line have come in Big Ten play.
To date, Penn State is the biggest game for Michigan this season. I would expect to see more wrinkles that the Wolverines have been saving for this game, and the quarterback run game could be one of them.
In last season’s matchup, Michigan ran for 418 yards against Penn State, and 339 of those yards came from Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Penn State will try to make sure that doesn't happen again, but Michigan still has an advantage with its interior offensive line against the interior of Penn State’s defensive line.
If Penn State keys on shutting down Corum and Edwards, Michigan may use McCarthy’s ability to get to the perimeter as a counter to open things up for it and help the offense stay on schedule. McCarthy ran for 57 yards against Penn State last season, along with 27 against Ohio State.
The one thing to be derail this play might be sacks. Penn State ranks second nationally in sacks per game and fourth in pass rush grade, per PFF. McCarthy has been sacked 11 times this season, losing 87 yards in the process.
Removing sacks, McCarthy has run for 224 yards at 8.6 yards per carry. I’m expecting McCarthy to run for 30-40 yards or more in this game. If Penn State gets home once or twice, he should still finish with 15 or more.
Penn State Team Total Under 20.5 Points
Play to 17.5
By Alex Hinton
If you read our staff's piece when Penn State played Ohio State, I faded the Nittany Lions by taking a Penn State-Ohio State double result. The bet lost due to a Penn State scoop-and-score being called back because of a penalty and its offense not being able to muster anything.
However, the end result was the same — James Franklin lost another big game.
Now, this year’s Penn State-Ohio State game was a bit of an anomaly, as they usually feature more scoring.
Penn State’s offense typically struggles more against Michigan. The Nittany Lions have averaged 20.5 points per game over their last eight meetings against the Wolverines. In five of those games — all Michigan wins — they've scored 17 points or less.
Now, I believe that Drew Allar is the best quarterback Penn State has had in the Franklin era. However, Franklin and offensive coordinator Mike Yurich didn't let him take many shots downfield before the Ohio State game.
Allar is averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt this season, and Penn State ranks 132nd nationally in passing explosiveness.
The Nittany Lions aren't going to score on the Wolverines often with long, sustained drives. However, you would think Penn State breaks tendency and throws the ball downfield more. When it does, it will run into more problems.
Michigan ranks third in the FBS in defending passing explosiveness and coverage grade, per PFF. Will Johnson is one of the country's elite cornerbacks, and he has four interceptions this season.
Michigan also ranks fourth in Rushing Success Rate, fifth in Havoc and has 22 sacks this season.
I expect Michigan’s defense to make things difficult on Penn State’s offense.
On FanDuel, this line sits at 19.5 at plus-money, but you can get a little more cushion at DraftKings, still at -130 odds.
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