Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -215 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +175 |
Tuesday's bowl slate will conclude in Phoenix, Arizona, as the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Both teams are looking to add a positive conclusion to disappointing seasons.
Wisconsin ended the year by losing two of its final three games to finish the season at a level 6-6. Similarly, Oklahoma State lost its final two contests to finish at a disappointing 7-5.
This is a matchup that will be defined by motivation. Both Wisconsin and Oklahoma State have taken major hits in the transfer portal and will look different on Tuesday as a result.
Whichever team and coaching staff can motivate their locker rooms to finish strong will have the upper hand in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers bring the third-longest bowl streak into Tuesday night, winning seven of their last eight postseason games.
New head coach Luke Fickell will be on the sidelines but has deferred much of the coaching decisions to interim head coach Jim Leonhard.
The Badgers have been affected by the transfer portal in a very similar way to Oklahoma State. Most notable is the departure of QB Graham Mertz, who, like Sanders, has decided to use his last year of eligibility elsewhere.
Although this will be a loss for the Badgers, it will not be as significant as the loss of Sanders is for the Cowboys.
Wisconsin relied on its running game and defense to find success this season. Although this play style led to only six wins, it gives the Badgers a much better foundation to deal with the departure of their signal-caller.
The Badgers, who ran the ball at the 18th highest rate in the country (60.2%), will be led by star sophomore RB Braelon Allen.
BRAELON ALLEN 90 YARDS TO THE HOUSE[! 🔥🔥 #Badgerspic.twitter.com/37dEVQ2qGy
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) September 3, 2022
Allen's participation in the bowl game gives the Badgers a huge leg up against an Oklahoma State offense that will struggle with finding a playmaker.
On the defensive side of the ball, Wisconsin will be without star linebacker Nick Herbig, who has entered the 2023 NFL Draft. Herbig started 30 games for the Badgers and racked up 137 tackles.
Although this loss will be significant, the Badgers will have a next-man-up mentality led by redshirt freshman OLB Darryl Peterson and redshirt sophomore OLB Kaden Johnson.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys come into Tuesday dealing with major uncertainty at the quarterback position. Spencer Sanders, who was a multi-year starter, decided in early December to enter the transfer portal.
This leaves a huge hole for an Oklahoma State offense that relied heavily on its passing attack. The Cowboys ranked outside the top 100 in rush rate, running the ball on just 47.7% of offensive snaps.
Relying more on the running game will not be the answer, as the Cowboys' front seven has struggled to generate push all season (104th in Rushing Success Rate), and will be without running back Dominic Richardson (543 yards), who also decided to enter the portal.
The departure of Sanders will likely make way for freshman QB Garret Rangel, who appeared in three games this year for the Cowboys. Rangel's best performance came on Nov. 5 against Kansas when he threw for 304 yards. Unfortunately for the Pokes, Rangel added three interceptions that contributed to a 37-16 loss.
Given Oklahoma State's shortcomings on the ground, it's likely that Rangel will be used at a high rate against a Wisconsin defense that allowed just a 27% Success Rate to opposing passing games this season.
On the other side of the ball, there are just as many concerns, as the Cowboys will be without leading tackler Mason Cobb who also entered the portal. Cobb contributed to 96 tackles (58 solo) this season and will be a huge loss for a Cowboys defense that struggled with tackling all year (119th nationally).
Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs Wisconsin Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 108 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 106 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 87 | 62 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 98 | 38 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 62 | 41 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def) | |||
Wisconsin Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 44 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 19 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 65 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 119 | 71 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 36 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 11 | 81 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.6 (7) | 29.2 (118) |
| Rush Rate | 47.7% (104) | 60.2% (18) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics
Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State Pick, Prediction
This is a difficult matchup to handicap, as both teams have reasons to lack the motivation needed to come out victorious.
Ultimately, Wisconsin will have more key pieces available against an Oklahoma State team that has lost its most valuable asset in Sanders. The Badgers will rely on Allen in the running game and on a defense that has had depth all season to outpace the Cowboys.
Look for Wisconsin's two-deep to come out strong in what will be its first opportunity to play in front of Fickell.
Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 or Better |
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