College Football Odds, Picks for Oklahoma State vs Iowa State: Defenses to Step Up?

In a Big 12 matchup, the Oklahoma State Cowboys head to Ames to take on the Iowa State Cyclones. The Cowboys have had the upper hand in three of the four last matchups, but this season, both teams are in a bit of an identity crisis.

Let's call a spade a spade here. Last week was ugly as can be for the Cowboys.

They hosted South Alabama, and not only lost, but got throttled on their home field, 33-7. Prior to its loss, Oklahoma State won two games relatively convincingly to start the season. But after last week, we have more questions than answers regarding this program.

Iowa State also had a pretty disappointing Week 3. The Cyclones went to Ohio and got stuffed by the Bobcats, 10-7 — a week after falling to in-state rival Iowa.

This team is young, though, and is still developing, but there’s nothing eye-popping. It’ll be interesting to see which program gets off the schneid in Week 4.

Head coach Mike Gundy can’t be happy with what he saw last week. For the 19 years he’s been at the helm in Stillwater, Oklahoma State has mostly been a consistent bunch. But last week was a red flag — a big one at that.

This is a team that still doesn’t know what it's doing at quarterback. The Pokes have a three-man rotation between Alan Bowman, Gunnar Gundy and Garret Rangel — none of whom have taken the reins.

With that, it shows in the metrics. Oklahoma State is one of the least explosive offensive teams and places 81st in Success Rate. Unsurprisingly, the passing game has suffered given the quarterback situation.

The Cowboys have a few decent receivers in Jaden Bray, De’Zhaun Stribling, and Brennan Presley who are all capable of making big plays. But this team needs to figure out who its guy is under center.

Because of that, the passing game has suffered. The Pokes rank 132nd in explosiveness and for the most part are unsuccessful.

On the ground, there’s a pretty solid running back room. Ollie Gordon, Elijah Collins and Jaden Nixon have formed a committee. Granted, they’re not a very explosive bunch, but they can move the chains methodically.

The defense is also a mess, and all you have to do is take a look at Week 3. The Cowboys allow an average of 24 points per game, but the showing against South Alabama was inexcusable.

Both the passing and rushing defense struggle to prevent explosiveness. While the run defense succeeds a little more than the pass, it still needs to be better. Last week, it allowed 268 total yards on the ground, including 151 yards from La’Damian Webb.

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This Iowa State team is nothing flashy. It lets the defense do the dirty work, and all the offense needs to do is bring in a couple touchdowns.

Redshirt freshman Rocco Becht has taken the keys for this Cyclones offense, and he’s done a decent job. He completes passes at nearly a 62% rate and has added four touchdowns to the ledger. He does need to work on protecting the ball, though, he threw two picks against Ohio last week.

But Becht has formed chemistry with a few of his receivers, including his favorite target, junior Jayden Higgins. Higgins averages nearly 12 yards per catch and has hauled in one touchdown on the season. Another target he’s gravitated to is the giant tight end Benjamin Brahmer, who averages 14 yards per catch.

But even with those two targets, the passing game is incredibly dull. The Cyclones rank toward the bottom in Success Rate, as well as explosiveness and PPA.

The run game is even worse. The offensive line has not helped Cartevious Norton one bit. Norton gets a ton of volume but only for him to average three yards per carry. For those doing the math at home — that's very bad.

Not only that, but the only rushing touchdown this team has is from Becht.

Maybe as the season wears on, this offense will figure it out, but there are definitely some concerns here.

Even though this offense lags behind, the defense definitely gets after it. In the passing game, this defense is the most explosive in the country and ranks fifth in PPA. Jeremiah Cooper looks to be the star of that defensive back room, with three interceptions, along with Beau Freyler, Myles Purchase and TJ Tampa.

The rushing defense is just as good with Caleb Bacon, Jacob Ellis and Tyler Onyedim at the forefront. The Cyclones rank 46th in Success Rate against the run but have the ability to keep big plays from happening.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and Iowa State match up statistically:

Oklahoma State Offense vs. Iowa State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	36	46
Line Yards	52	45
Pass Success	107	9
Havoc	28	42
Finishing Drives	38	16
Quality Drives	69	27

Iowa State Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	129	72
Line Yards	129	112
Pass Success	84	107
Havoc	54	80
Finishing Drives	110	104
Quality Drives	108	50

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	131	75
PFF Coverage	102	8
Special Teams SP+	124	40
Middle 8	98	29
Seconds per Play	26.0 (49)	29.9 (112)
Rush Rate	44.2% (120)	48.5% (91)

I truly think this game is going to be ugly.

The only positive I see coming in this game is Iowa State’s defense. It hits opponents in the mouth, and it could pose a problem for a team like Oklahoma State that's trying to figure itself out.

Don’t expect much scoring here. OSU’s defense is a travesty, and ISU’s offense is nothing to write home about either.

The total for this game sits at a low 36.5, but I still think it has a strong chance to go under. Both teams have hit the under in every one of their games, which all but convinces me the under has a good chance of hitting again.