NC State vs Virginia Tech Pick
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
In a game with major significance in the Atlantic Coast Conference, Virginia Tech welcomes NC State to Lane Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Hokies need just one win in their final two contests to become bowl-eligible for the first time under coach Brent Pry.
Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have won four of their past five to push themselves into the conversation for making the ACC Championship Game.
I believe there’s solid betting value to take advantage of, so let's look at our NC State vs Virginia Tech pick.
NC State Wolfpack
Veteran head coach Dave Doeren is once again working his magic at NC State. He has his team surging at the right time thanks to strong defensive play.
In conference play, the Wolfpack lead the ACC in scoring defense and are allowing just 14.5 points per game. This unit also ranks in the top 25 in the country in 10 defensive categories and has allowed just 84.1 rushing yards per game over the past eight contests.
The leader of that unit is linebacker Payton Wilson, who is first in the conference and fifth in the FBS in tackles. He was recently named a Butkus Award semifinalist and is a four-time ACC LB of the Week recipient this year.
On the offensive side of the ball, NC State was forced to go back to quarterback Brennan Armstrong after MJ Morris decided to sit out the remainder of the season to preserve his redshirt after a 3-1 record as the starter.
Virginia Tech Hokies
After a 3-8 record in his debut season, Pry has the program moving in the right direction in his second year.
If Virginia Tech is going to get to a bowl, Pry needs his defense to continue pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Tech’s defense is second in the ACC in sacks and is tied for 10th nationally.
The defensive unit is also third in the conference in tackles for loss, with 80 through 10 games.
Pry also had to be encouraged by the play of quarterback Kyron Drones in the victory over Boston College. The Baylor transfer racked up 135 yards rushing to go with 219 yards through the air.
Drones' performance led to him being named ACC Quarterback of the Week, and he'll need to come up big here for another win.
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NC State vs Virginia Tech
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and Virginia Tech match up statistically:
NC State Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 36 | |
| Line Yards | 50 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 46 | 124 | |
| Quality Drives | 94 | 34 | |
Virginia Tech Offense vs. NC State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 26 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 97 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 89 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 73 | 18 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 2 | 85 |
| PFF Coverage | 53 | 88 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 17 | 15 |
| Middle 8 | 44 | 11 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.9 (102) | 28.7 (96) |
| Rush Rate | 54.9% (72) | 58.4% (32) |
NC State vs Virginia Tech
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is likely going to be a defensive slugfest and I plan on backing the better defense, even on the road.
So, my best bet is to take NC State at +3. If this drops below the key number, I'll play NC State on the moneyline.
There are a couple of key metrics that lead me to this bet, starting with finishing drives. Both offenses have done a decent job of scoring points when they cross the 40, but the Hokies rank 124th in this stat on defense, while the Wolfpack are 42nd. If you look over the past four weeks, Tech is last among Power 5 programs in the same metric.
In a matchup where consistent offensive progression could be a struggle, explosive plays will be crucial. This is another edge for the visitors.
NC State has been the most explosive offense in the P5 over the past four weeks. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech's defense is in the bottom 10 in giving up explosive plays over the same stretch.
I think the Wolfpack will continue their late-season surge with another cover here.
Pick: NC State +3 | Play the Moneyline if Spread Drops Below 3
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