Kansas State vs NC State Pick, Prediction, Odds | Pop-Tarts Bowl Betting Preview

The Lombardi Trophy, the Heisman, the Stanley Cup and Claret Jug — they’ve all got nothing on what’s at stake when NC State and Kansas State meet in Orlando on Thursday evening.

There've been copious complaints about this year’s bowl season and the lack of meaning for its games, but the inaugural Pop-Tarts Bowl is a truly watershed moment in the sport, adding unrivaled significance to a non-College Football Playoff bowl game.

For the 9-3 Wolfpack, there’s more on the line than just a bite of the most prestigious trophy in sports. A victory over Kansas State would give the Pack just their second 10-win season in program history.

Kansas State (8-4) was unable to match the high of last year’s Big 12 Championship, but the Wildcats have been in every single game this season and are in search of the second bowl win in coach Chris Klieman’s five-year tenure.

While a pack of Pop-Tarts contains two pastries, only one team can go home with the prize. With important opt-outs on both teams, which side is toast?

Not even the idea of sharing the field with an edible mascot was enough to entice Kansas State’s best players to stick around through the month of December. NC State may have the best player who opted out, but the Wildcats' roster is significantly more depleted due to the early exits.

Offensively, Kansas State is without quarterback Will Howard, its two leading receivers and even its offensive coordinator, just to name a few. The defense is also down multiple starters in the secondary.

The offense, however, isn’t a total lost cause. In Howard’s place steps freshman Avery Johnson, who split reps with Howard throughout the season and even got a start against TCU before giving way to the more veteran player later in the game.

Like NC State’s Armstrong, Johnson’s best asset is his legs. The freshman scored five rushing touchdowns against Texas Tech on Oct. 14 and finished the season with 225 yards on 45 carries.

With over 53% of Kansas State’s receiving yardage opted out or in the transfer portal, the Wildcats will need every rushing yard they can get from Johnson and running back DJ Giddens, who rushed for 1,075 yards this season.

Kansas State had one of the better defenses in the Big 12 this season, ranking top-three in scoring, total and rushing defense. But again, this unit’s depth chart is a shell of what it was in the regular season.

The Wildcats’ normal group of starters ranked 125th in PFF tackling, something you think would naturally get even worse when backups are thrust into action.

As Kansas State is forced to start a true freshman at quarterback, NC State takes a swing at its 10th win with one of the elder statesmen of college football. Brennan Armstrong caps off his six-year career in the Pop-Tarts Bowl after what was a topsy-turvy season for the Virginia transfer.

Named the starter out of preseason camp, Armstrong was benched midway through the season for MJ Morris. After Morris played four games and opted to sit out the rest of the year to preserve his redshirt, it was back to Armstrong who helped close the Wolfpack's season on a three-game winning streak.

Armstrong, who finished the season with 1,621 passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns, brings an added wrinkle to the NC State offense with his legs. The quarterback’s 544 rushing yards are almost 250 more than the next closest player on the roster.

Armstrong’s mobility is an important factor behind a shaky offensive line that’s allowed the third-most tackles for loss in the ACC and ranks 84th in Havoc Allowed.

The Wolfpack have otherwise relied on a steady defense to help them win games. NC State will be without linebacker Payton Wilson, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, but there’s more to this unit than just the standout defender.

NC State finished the season with the nation’s 16th-best run defense (104.8 yards per game), which is of great importance against a Kansas State offense that's without its starting quarterback and top two pass-catchers.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State vs NC State match up statistically:

NC State Offense vs Kansas State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	88	21
Line Yards	64	19
Pass Success	80	31
Havoc	84	27
Finishing Drives	33	16
Quality Drives	81	33

Kansas State Offense vs NC State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	18	30
Line Yards	49	20
Pass Success	34	16
Havoc	13	41
Finishing Drives	2	53
Quality Drives	45	22

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	6	125
PFF Coverage	82	54
Special Teams SP+	12	94
Middle 8	40	95
Seconds per Play	29.6 (116)	25.9 (41)
Rush Rate	56.0% (59)	55.5% (44)

As is often the case in 2023, bowl games come down to roster availability.

Kansas State’s offense has been picked clean of three of its biggest weapons, and it will be fairly one-dimensional against one of the better run defenses in the country.

NC State won its final five games of the season with Armstrong playing some of his best and cleanest football to date in a Wolfpack uniform. The depleted Wildcats won’t be able to keep pace with NC State.

In the first-ever battle for toaster-pastry supremacy, the Wolfpack have the clear edge. NC State is worth at least a Pop-Tart sprinkle on the moneyline, along with taking the points.

Pick: NC State +2.5 (1 Unit) · NC State ML +115 (0.5 Units)

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