Minnesota vs Iowa Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 30.5 -115o / -105u | +150 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 30.5 -115o / -105u | -185 |
There’s truly no better way to commemorate the final version of this Big Ten West than by watching Iowa muck its way to another division crown.
The Hawkeyes return to Kinnick Stadium with a 6-1 record and an inside track on the Big Ten Championship after topping Wisconsin in a 15-6 slobber-knocker last weekend.
Minnesota had a bye week to recover from its worst performance of the season against Michigan, where the Gophers were blown out by 42 points as they dropped their third straight game against Power 5 competition.
This matchup pits two of the country’s worst offenses against each other, but Vegas may have set a total that even these teams can outscore. Will these offenses continue to sputter, or is one worth backing more than the other?
Let's dive into the Minnesota vs. Iowa Odds,picks and predictions in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 21.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Iowa may garner the lion’s share of infamy for its inept offense, but make no mistake: The Minnesota offense is rowing the boat closely behind.
Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis’ arm should be well rested following a bye, a week removed from a disastrous performance against Michigan. The sophomore quarterback completed just five passes for 52 yards and threw more touchdown passes to Wolverine defensive backs (two) than he did to Minnesota receivers (one).
It was the fifth time in Kaliakmanis’ 11-game career that he’s thrown for fewer than 100 yards, which is one more time than the number of games he’s recorded at least 150 passing yards.
The Gophers' passing game averages all of 132.8 yards per game and is only better than Iowa in the Big Ten.
The majority of Minnesota’s scoring has been done on the ground, where the Gophers rank 42nd in Rush Success. Leading rusher Darius Taylor has missed the last two games with an injury, and PJ Fleck said he won’t be providing any update on the freshman’s availability until two hours before kick, although I do expect Taylor to play.
Unlike the Hawkeyes, Minnesota doesn’t have a defense capable of hiding every wart of the offense. The Gophers rank 100th and 94th in Rush and Pass Success Allowed, respectively, and have been torched for 400-plus yards of offense in three of their last four games.
When opposing teams cross Minnesota’s 40, they usually find a way to turn it into points. The Gophers have the second-worst Finishing Drives ranking in the country — the only question is how often Iowa’s offense will cross midfield.
Iowa Hawkeyes
No matter how hard Brian Ferentz may try to handicap the Hawkeyes, Iowa remains in the driver’s seat of the Big Ten West and is positioned to make its second appearance in the conference championship in the last three seasons.
By now, the secret’s out on how poor the Hawkeyes offense is. Iowa ranks third-to-last nationally in passing offense with 116.6 yards per game, ahead of only two service academies. It also sits 115th in scoring with 20.9 points per game.
There are surprisingly three Big Ten West teams with a lower average, which says a lot about the state of offense in that division.
It seems like every week an injury drops the Iowa offense to a new low, and last week against Wisconsin was no exception. Erick All, who leads the team in receiving as a tight end, suffered a season-ending injury against the Badgers.
The injury leaves the Hawkeyes without their three best offensive players likely for the rest of the season with All, tight end Luke Lachey and quarterback Cade McNamara all injured.
This week marks quarterback Deacon Hill’s third straight start for a Hawkeyes passing offense that's the worst in the Big Ten. Hill has led Iowa to consecutive victories despite completing 12 total passes in those games.
With Hill as quarterback, Iowa’s running backs have stepped up in the last two games. Leshon Williams exploded for 174 yards on 25 carries against Wisconsin, while Kaleb Johnson recorded 134 yards on the ground against Purdue the week prior.
There's a question on how sustainable their improvement is, however, as both Williams and Johnson picked up the majority of their yardage on singular explosive plays (runs of 82 and 67 yards), while the Hawkeyes continue to rank a lowly 131st in Rush Success.
But the real reason Iowa keeps finding a way to win is its defense that ranks 10th nationally, allowing 14.9 points per game.
The Hawkeyes' total defense mark ranks fourth in the country, as they allow just 4.3 yards per play. It’s incredibly difficult for opponents to score on Iowa when they cross the 40s, as the Hawkeyes rank 14th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Kaliakmanis is likely in for another long day, as only Penn State holds opposing teams to fewer yards per pass than Iowa’s mark of 4.9.
Minnesota vs Iowa
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and Iowa match up statistically:
Minnesota Offense vs. Iowa Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 55 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 100 | 10 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 105 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 53 | 8 | |
Iowa Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 130 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 132 | 94 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 132 | |
| Quality Drives | 124 | 93 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 111 | 12 |
| PFF Coverage | 53 | 1 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 20 | 10 |
| Middle 8 | 77 | 86 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.5 (126) | 28.6 (98) |
| Rush Rate | 63.9% (10) | 59.5% (25) |
Minnesota vs Iowa
Betting Pick & Prediction
Any time you get two offenses this inept on a field, your first inclination is likely to hammer the under. But even as "fun" as it is to fade these offenses, I just can’t in good faith recommend backing an under that’s practically in the 20s.
Instead, there are two clear advantages in this matchup that make me favor the Hawkeyes: defense and special teams.
Iowa punter Tory Taylor is an absolute weapon, and he’s going to set Minnesota up consistently with awful starting field position. Last week, Taylor averaged over 50 yards a punt on 10 punts and even pinned the Badgers at their own one-yard-line.
Kaliakmanis is going to be tasked with consistently trying to go the length of the field on one of the conference’s best defenses, and he has an extensive enough body of work to know that’s highly unlikely.
The Hawkeyes defense seemingly scores as often as their offense, and Kaliakmanis is coming off a game in which he threw two pick-sixes.
Iowa’s passing game is even more handicapped with the injury to Erick All, but the Hawkeyes' ground game has been picking up steam, Meanwhile, the Minnesota run defense has been getting worse, allowing over 175 yards rushing in each of its last two games.
This will surely be another disgusting display of football, but I like the Hawkeyes to somehow keep winning in spite of their offense.
