Michigan vs Nebraska Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-17.5 -110 | 39.5 -115o / -105u | -1000 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+17.5 -110 | 39.5 -115o / -105u | +650 |
Jim Harbaugh returned to the sidelines last week after serving his three-game suspension, and Michigan responded in a big way with a home victory over Rutgers.
Meanwhile, Nebraska won its second matchup in a row, beating Louisiana Tech 28-14 to claw back to .500 for the season at 2-2.
This is a series that Michigan has dominated recently, as the Huskers are looking for their first victory over the Wolverines since 2013.
It's worth noting that this will be Michigan's first road game of the season, after four comfortable victories at home against inferior opponents.
Let's discuss where the betting value lies for this early kick in what should be a raucous environment in Lincoln.
Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines had lofty expectations entering 2023, and they've looked the part thus far.
Star QB JJ McCarthy continues to look more and more comfortable in his second year as the guy running this offense.
Michigan is inside the top 30 in both Passing and Rushing Success Rates, and that balance is something Harbaugh's best offenses always have.
If there's an area for improvement for this unit, it would be in the red zone, where the Wolverines are outside the top 60 nationally in Finishing Drives.
Defensively, UM has a chance to feast in this matchup. There's no weakness in Jesse Minter's group. They attack you from all levels.
I would expect an aggressive game plan against a Nebraska offense with a propensity to shoot itself in the foot.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Matt Rhule era isn't off to the best of starts, with the Huskers blowing their road opener at Minnesota in a game they controlled throughout.
Following that was a trip to Boulder, where the offense was abysmal, resulting in a comfortable victory for Coach Prime and the Buffaloes.
However, if there is a positive, it has been the way the defense has been flying around, evident in Nebraska's recent back-to-back home wins.
The Huskers rank inside the top 20 nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed, which is critical if you want to have any chance of stifling the balanced Michigan offense. When McCarthy drops back to throw, Nebraska will need to get pressure with its front four.
On the other end, the offense is a mess. It has yet to be announced whether it will be Jeff Sims or Heinrich Haarberg getting the start Saturday, but whoever it is will have his hands full against a loaded Wolverine defense.
When Nebraska has had success, it has leaned on its rushing attack. But you just can't ground and pound against Michigan's stout front seven.
If the Huskers want any chance of hanging around in this one, they must take care of the ball and limit turnovers.
Michigan vs Nebraska
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Nebraska match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 59 |  |
| Quality Drives | 16 | 57 | |
Nebraska Offense vs. Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 119 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 28 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 88 | 3 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 59 | 32 |
| PFF Coverage | 15 | 57 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 16 | 112 |
| Middle 8 | 11 | 58 |
| Seconds per Play | 32.8 (132) | 30.2 (116) |
| Rush Rate | 59.2% (25) | 67.2% (9) |
Michigan vs Nebraska
Betting Pick & Prediction
Ultimately, I don't see how Nebraska moves the ball in this matchup.
The Wolverine defense has surrendered only 23 points on the season, and the Husker quarterback situation remains a major question mark.
On the other side of the ball, the Nebraska defense continues to be effective and has been good at limiting big plays. Expect Michigan to grind its way down the field, draining the clock.
It's always risky playing an under with a total this low, given the possibility of a defensive or special teams touchdown. Still, points should come at a premium throughout this matchup.
Give me the under at 39.
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