Penn State vs Iowa Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
As the Iowa Hawkeyes descend upon State College, expect the chorus of boos to welcome coach Kirk Ferentz and his players.
Penn State traveled to Iowa City two years ago and lost, as both quarterback Sean Clifford and defensive interior PJ Mustipher fell to injury during the game. Iowa fans and coaches were irritated by the situation, perceiving that the Nittany Lions were doing everything possible to create extra timeouts in what would be a close Hawkeyes victory.
Ferentz was later quoted to say that fans "smelled a rat," which is enough poster-board material to make Happy Valley a hostile environment on Saturday.
Both teams enter this week's game undefeated, looking for a critical win with major Big Ten opponents looming on the upcoming schedule.
The Nittany Lions benefited from five Illinois turnovers last week, pushing the Illini offense behind the chains to generate an average distance of 10.2 yards on third downs. Penn State is the most successful defense in college football in terms of standard downs, a key against an Iowa offense that found points in Week 3.
The Hawkeyes took advantage of Western Michigan in Kinnick Stadium, exceeding 25 points for the first time this season.
Defense and special teams are essential to the identity of Iowa, as both units may be called upon to score in a game that will be heavy in Havoc.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Expectations were as high as ever for James Franklin entering his 10th season as head coach at Penn State. The Nittany Lions have lived up to the hype with a covering effort in all three victories.
The defense is playing at a national title level, as it's top 10 in Success Rate against the rush and the pass. A rank in the top 15 in Quality and Finishing Drives has made it difficult for opponents to even create scoring opportunities.
Penn State ranks 16th nationally in generating long third downs, as opponents have averaged 8.3 yards per conversion attempt.
An injury scare came in the second quarter against Illinois for quarterback Drew Allar. Diagnosed as a right arm injury, Allar didn't miss a snap until the game was out of hand late in the fourth quarter. The sophomore quarterback has yet to throw an interception and has recorded just one turnover-worthy play in 148 career passing attempts.
Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich has been heavy on calling rushing plays with two star running backs in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. While the elusiveness numbers are down from a season ago, the duo has produced seven rushing touchdowns and caught 11 passes out of the backfield.
If there was a downside to the offense, the lack of explosive plays from the passing games would be in scope. Penn State ranks 132nd in creating explosives on pass plays, leading to a Passing Downs Success Rate of 74th.
Lack of opportunity is in play, as just 8% of Allar's passing attempts have been over 20 yards.
The passing game has thrived on plays shorter than nine yards in distance, as KeAndre Lambert-Smith draws the most targets while floating from out wide to the slot.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Just as the sun rises in the East, the Hawkeyes continue to play outstanding defense. Already a top-five unit in coverage grading and preventing the big play, Iowa has limited opposing offenses to just 12 drives beyond the 40-yard line while submitting an average of 2.4 points per scoring attempt.
Only 20% of opponent drives are considered successful, ranking best in the nation in shutting down explosives in standard downs.
Surprisingly, Iowa has not benefitted from turnovers through three weeks of play. Linebacker Jay Higgins leads the team in tackles, while sixth-year edge Joe Evans has already created 12 pressures in just 20 pass rush attempts.
The contractual clause for a bonus payout based on Iowa's points per game looms large over every offensive drive. Coordinator Brian Ferentz must average 25 points per game this season for a number of contractual reasons, a signal that Iowa would open the offense and look to be more vertical.
Transfer quarterback Cade McNamara has attempted to make Iowa a downfield passing team, attempting 15 passes over 20 yards through three games. Accuracy beyond 10 yards has been a severe issue for the fourth-year quarterback, as his overall adjusted completion percentage is down nearly 10% from career averages.
One bright spot for the offense is the emergence of Leshon Williams at running back. The Hawkeyes rank outside the top 100 in most rushing statistics, but Williams has produced nearly as many explosive runs in 98 fewer attempts in comparison to 2022.
With a yards-after-contact bump that's up a full yard to 3.5, Williams is expected to get more of the workload in a game that will be decided on who controls the trenches.
Penn State vs Iowa
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa and Penn State match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs. Penn State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 117 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 107 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 13 | |
| Quality Drives | 85 | 7 | |
Penn State Offense vs. Iowa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 74 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 25 |  |
| Havoc | 1 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 29 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 30 | 94 |
| PFF Coverage | 5 | 30 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 86 | 88 |
| Middle 8 | 61 | 69 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.0 (114) | 26.5 (62) |
| Rush Rate | 58.4% (32) | 57.9% (17) |
Penn State vs Iowa
Betting Pick & Prediction
Weather could be in play in State College Saturday night with rain and winds around 10 miles per hour forecasted. The early total money came on the under, pushing this below one of the biggest keys of 41.
A general rule of thumb when betting totals is that wind is the cause of totals going under the closing number, while precipitation can cause advantages for the offense in downfield cuts.
Both Penn State and Iowa kickers have hit 50-yard attempts in their career, a noteworthy item with winds projected to stay low.
The biggest handicap comes in the ability of each offense to move against defenses that are the best in the Big Ten. Both of these teams rank top-20 in offensive momentum and strength of record.
Penn State is the best in the nation in Havoc Allowed, measuring how often a tackle for loss, sack or pass breakup is recorded against the Nittany Lions.
Conversely, Iowa is the most disciplined team in the nation, averaging just 18.3 penalty yards per game.
There's reason to believe Penn State will move the ball, as Iowa ranks 92nd in generating Havoc. The Hawkeyes are no longer producing turnovers and have taken a slide in producing tackles for loss.
Iowa has been average defending the rush against the offenses of Western Michigan, Iowa State and Utah State. There's an expectation the ground attack of Singleton and Allen will produce Quality Drives and set up scoring attempts for Penn State.
The Action Network projection makes Penn State a favorite of 15 points, indicating no value in the point spread. However, the projected total comes at 53, thanks to the Nittany Lions' ability to convert scoring opportunities into points.
Penn State has scored a touchdown on 14-of-17 visits to the red zone this season.
Look for Penn State to continue a methodical march to the end zone, while Iowa pieces together drives good enough to generate field goal attempts.
Both of these defenses are capable of producing scores, a point of emphasis for the accuracy issues with McNamara.
If Franklin needs points to cover at the end of this game, expect the total to exceed the closing number.
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