Illinois vs Purdue Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+1 -115 | 53.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-1 -105 | 53.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
We have a battle in the Big Ten West between two teams that need a victory.
Balls aren't even in the air in Week 5, and these two longtime rivals have already combined for five losses on the year.
Purdue entered 2023 in transition, with Ryan Walters taking over for Jeff Brohm and the team featuring a good amount of roster turnover.
Meanwhile, in Champaign, expectations were higher after a promising 2022, but the Illini have fallen twice to tough opponents — at home to Penn State and in Lawrence to the Jayhawks.
The line in this matchup has sputtered right around a pick'em, with each team being a favorite at some point in the week.
Let's break down who's better positioned to secure the victory in Illinois vs. Purdue.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Not many teams started 2023 with a more difficult schedule than Illinois.
Bret Bielema's team opened with a pesky Toledo group that nearly beat the Illini in Champaign. They then had to hit the road to face a Kansas team playing at an elite level on offense, and that one didn't end well. After that, it was the top-five ranked Penn State Nittany Lions visiting Memorial Stadium, which resulted in another loss.
I say all that to point out that this team has been tested early, and it'll be stronger because of it.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer is playing better than his numbers, at least by my eye test. He's suffered bad breaks with interceptions and costly drops. If there's a get-right spot for this offense, it's Saturday against a pedestrian Purdue defense.
One other thing to mention is the motivation angle. Purdue went into Champaign last year and beat the Illini, ultimately costing them a trip to Indy for the Big Ten Championship game. The Boilers represented the West instead.
Additionally, a year ago, Walters was the defensive coordinator of that stingy Illinois defense. When he left in the offseason for West Lafayette, he took a lot of critical personnel with him.
You better believe this game will have Bielema's full attention.
Purdue Boilermakers
One of the first things Walters did when he took over the job in West Lafayette was import Texas quarterback transfer Hudson Card from the portal.
Card hasn't played as well as Boiler fans would've hoped, but when you look at this team from top to bottom, he's the least of its issues.
The Boilermakers' defense can't stop anybody right now. This unit ranks outside the top 90 nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed, Defensive Line Yards, Quality Drives and Havoc.
Purdue allowed at least 35 points in losses to Fresno State, Syracuse and Wisconsin, and all three games came at home.
To turn this thing around and have a chance on Saturday, Purdue must do a better job up front and stop the run.
A lack of playmakers is also prevalent for the Boilers on offense. There's no Rondale Moore or David Bell for Card to throw the ball to on the outside and make plays.
The Boilers also don't do a great job in pass protection, allowing opponents to get pressure with just their front four.
I expect this team to get better as the year goes on, but it's not pretty right now.
Illinois vs Purdue
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Illinois and Purdue match up statistically:
Illinois Offense vs. Purdue Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 112 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 127 | |
| Quality Drives | 125 | 111 | |
Purdue Offense vs. Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 100 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 79 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 111 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 48 | 126 |
| PFF Coverage | 71 | 103 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 63 | 109 |
| Middle 8 | 113 | 119 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.6 (28) | 24.7 (32) |
| Rush Rate | 49.6% (106) | 48.4% (91) |
Illinois vs Purdue
Betting Pick & Prediction
With a short spread, this handicap comes down to who you believe will win.
I have more faith in Illinois than I do in the Boilermakers. Purdue has been a mixed bag through four weeks, and it's fragile in the trenches.
If there's one need-to-know about a Bielema-coached team, it will be physical and make you earn your yards up the middle.
Illinois is the better football team across the board, and when you toss in the motivation angle, I think you have to play the Illini.
Take the point if they're there, or ride the Illini on the ML to get it done in West Lafayette.
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