College Football Picks for Friday: Expert Best Bets Tonight
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  | 7:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Fridays are for football, and that's exactly what we have here tonight — with our college football picks for Friday featuring two expert best bets tonight.
First, the Boston College Eagles leave their home of Chestnut Hill to head to New York to take on the Syracuse Orange in an ACC clash.
Then, to wrap up Friday's college football slate, the Wyoming Cowboys host the Colorado State Rams in what should be an intriguing Mountain West matchup between two teams with completely contrasting styles.
Our college football staff broke down both games and came through with a pick for each, so let's dive right into their analysis.
Colorado State vs. Wyoming
It's a great night to dive into the Colorado State vs Wyoming odds and make a prediction for Friday night's college football showdown.
The Rams have had one of the more bizarre seasons this year. They got blown out at home by Washington State after giving up 50 in Week 2, almost beat in-state rival Colorado, had one of the more insane comebacks to beat Boise State on a Hail Mary, and then got blown out at home by Air Force.
Wyoming has now dropped two straight games, losing a close one to Air Force and then getting blown out by Boise State on the Smurf Turf last weekend.
The Cowboys are a tale of two teams. They've been awesome in Laramie, going 5-0 with a notable upset win over Texas Tech to start the season. On the road, it's been a different story, as they're 0-3.
The good news for them is this game is being played in Laramie, and it serves as a great opportunity for the Pokes to reach bowl eligibility.
This game is a Border War rivalry, as the winner receives the Bronze Boot. Let's dive into where the betting value lies in this Friday night Mountain West matchup.
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Colorado State Rams
Colorado State's transition from a run-heavy offense to Jay Norvell's Air Raid has seen mixed results.
Freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has been thrust into the starting quarterback role, and he's played admirably. Per Sports Info Solutions, he has a 49% Positive EPA Play Percentage, but he hasn't been that accurate.
Fowler-Nicolosi has a catchable pass percentage of just 78.8% with an on-target percentage of 67.6%, which both rank outside the top 100 among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 100 passes.
Considering his low completion percentage, you would think he throws the ball down the field at a high rate, but that's not the case. Only 30.1% of his pass attempts have been over 10 yards in the air, and he tends to put the ball up for grabs when he does throw it downfield. He has 18 turnover-worthy plays this year — the fifth-most in FBS.
The problem for Fowler-Nicolosi is that all of the pressure is on his shoulders. Colorado State throws the ball on 63.8% of offensive plays, which is the second-highest rate in the country. When it does decide to run the ball, it's been completely ineffective, ranking 132nd in EPA/Rush.
The Rams defense has been exposed quite often this season, especially last weekend against Air Force's triple option. The Falcons racked up 261 rushing yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry on the night — not a good sign for the Rams when they're about to face a run-heavy Wyoming offense.
Although the weather doesn't look great for passing the ball on Friday night, Colorado State will be in trouble if Wyoming can get its passing attack going. The Rams rank outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate Allowed, passing explosiveness allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed.
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming is a team built to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage. However, it hasn't done a great job of that this season. The Cowboys are 82nd in Offensive Line Yards and 57th in Stuff Rate, but when it matters most, they've been very successful.
Wyoming ranks 26th in Power Success Rate, which measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converts a first down or scores a TD, per CollegeFootballData.
Colorado State ranks 83rd in that same category defensively, so third- and fourth-and-short situations are going to be a big advantage for the Pokes on Friday night.
This is Craig Bohl's 10th year as Wyoming's head coach, and not surprisingly, the Cowboys are running the ball on 58.7% of their offensive plays. They haven't been that effective in doing so, though, as they're averaging only 4.3 yards per carry and rank 92nd in Rushing Success Rate.
The key in this game will be Andrew Peasley and the Wyoming passing attack given how bad the Colorado State secondary is.
There's one area where Peasley has been pretty good this season: play action. With how often Wyoming runs the ball, teams are often playing a heavy box to try and stop the run. When Peasley runs play action, he's averaging 8.1 yards per attempt with a 53% Positive EPA Play Percentage, which ranks top 50 in the nation.
Wyoming's defensive metrics look pretty average to below average on the season, but its home and road splits are almost night and day. It allows more than a yard less per play both on the ground and through the air at home compared to on the road.
Its schedule has been harder on the road than at home, but when the performance gaps are this drastic, there's probably something to the fact that the Pokes just play way better at home.
Colorado State vs Wyoming
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a game of polar opposite styles of play. Colorado State wants to play fast and throw the ball all over the field, while Wyoming wants to grind the game to a halt and run the ball to control the clock.
So, which style wins out in the end? I say Wyoming.
The Pokes' secondary has been exposed at times, but if we go back to the beginning of the season, they played a team very similar to Colorado State in Texas Tech. This unit held the Red Raiders to 17 points and Tyler Shough to just 7.2 yards per attempt until things got crazy in multiple overtimes.
The splits between Wyoming's performance at home versus on the road are quite drastic, but this will be played in Laramie. The weather is also in the Cowboys' favor with winds around 15 mph at kickoff against a pass-heavy team.
Bohl also has been very profitable covering the spread at home over the last five years.
I have Wyoming projected at -10.1, so I like the value on the Cowboys at -6.
Boston College vs. Syracuse
Week 10 brings us a Friday night ACC matchup in Syracuse, New York, as the Boston College Eagles visit the Carrier Dome for a matchup against the Syracuse Orange.
Boston College is on a roll after winning its fourth straight game over UConn last week. Syracuse has had quite the opposite stretch, dropping its last four games. The games Syracuse lost were mostly against the best of the ACC, so this should be a better matchup for the Orange.
Can Syracuse pick up its first ACC win of the year, or will Boston College continue to roll? Let’s take a look at where the betting value lies.
Boston College Eagles
The Eagles had a rough start to the year, but they have responded well and currently sit at 5-3 with two of those losses coming against Florida State and Louisville.
Those teams have come out as the top two teams in the ACC to date this season. Coach Jeff Hafley will lead the Eagles into New York hoping to sustain and build on his success since arriving in Chestnut Hill three years ago.
Thomas Castellanos headlines the offense as a major dual-threat quarterback, leading the team in passing and rushing this season. He's a one-stop shop who does it all for Hafley’s offense week in and week out.
That being said, Kyle Robichaux finds success quite often in this run-heavy offense. Robichaux averages five yards per carry this season, while Castellanos averages 5.4.
The bread and butter of this offense is to run the football, as it ranks 44th in Success Rate and ninth in explosiveness.
Teams need to be prepared to load the box and slow down this ground game. When opponents do this, Castellanos takes advantage through the air, as the Eagles rank 34th in passing explosiveness thanks to the success they find on play-action passes.
The Boston College defense is not nearly as strong as its offense. In fact, it's pretty awful, allowing 28 points per game and roughly 360 yards of offense each game.
Fortunately for the Eagles, their offense has been explosive enough to keep up with their bad defense. Boston College ranks 107th against the pass and an awful 115th in defensive pass explosiveness.
Syracuse should be able to find some ways to exploit this weak secondary and pick up some big plays.
Syracuse Orange
The Orange have had a tough stretch of late, but they will be happy to return home this week after a grueling three-week road stretch at Virginia Tech, Florida State and North Carolina.
Head coach Dino Babers looks to get his team back on track with its first ACC win of the year in the Carrier Dome. Syracuse is 3-2 in its last five games against Boston College, so this figures to be a close one on Friday night.
While the Orange haven't found a ton of success offensively thus far, they do have a bright spot. They cash in on a lot of explosive plays, as they rank 58th in offensive explosiveness. This should give them an advantage over a porous Boston College defense that consistently allows big plays.
Quarterback Garrett Shrader and this offense will need to make sure they take advantage of these opportunities when they arise — something that shouldn't be new to them.
LeQuint Allen should be able to find some running room this week despite Syracuse ranking 115th in Rushing Success Rate. This balanced offensive attack has the potential to put up points after scoring only 10, three and seven over the last three weeks.
If not for this defense as a bright spot, this season could be very ugly for Cuse. It holds teams to 24 points per game and ranks 60th nationally in Success Rate. The defense is especially strong against the big play, ranking 30th in explosiveness.
The big test will be figuring out how to slow down this Boston College run game and contain Castellanos so he doesn't beat this defense with his legs. The Orange allow about 150 yards per game on the ground, so that will be the defining factor in this conference clash.
The Syracuse pass defense should be able to slow down Castellanos through the air, as it ranks 46th against the pass.
Boston College vs Syracuse
Betting Pick & Prediction
This should be a fun back-and-forth game with clear areas both teams should be able to exploit.
The game will ultimately come down to which side can string together stops defensively, and I trust Syracuse’s defense to do that in what's essentially a must-win game as it returns home.
Give me the Orange -2.5 here.
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