Friday. Night. Lights.
No matter what level we're talking about, there's always something special about the gridiron being lit up on a Friday night.
We have two such college football matchups this week, including a Safeway Bowl clash between SMU and North Texas and a Mountain West matchup between UNLV and Wyoming.
Both matchups take place relatively late, so think of it as preparation for Saturday night's Hawaii game on the Island.
Our staff broke down SMU vs. North Texas and UNLV vs. Wyoming, coming through with a betting pick for each. So, let's dive into their analysis for Friday night's college football games.
Friday College Football Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups from Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 10:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
North Texas vs. SMU
Week 11 features a Friday night American Athletic Conference matchup down in Dallas, as the SMU Mustangs welcome in the North Texas Mean Green.
North Texas enters this one after dropping four of its last five, including three in a row. SMU, meanwhile, enters after winning its last five games with four of those victories coming by multiple scores.
SMU looks to keep pace with Tulane, as they both sit at 5-0 in AAC play, while North Texas needs a win in this one to get out of the AAC basement. Can the Mean Green get the job done and pull the upset on the road?
Find a betting pick, prediction and preview for North Texas vs. SMU in the Safeway Bowl below.
North Texas Mean Green
Eric Morris has had a tough year for his first season down in Denton, as his Mean Green currently sit at 3-6 on the year and 1-4 in conference play. This is especially disappointing given that this team finished 7-7 a year ago and made a Conference USA Championship appearance before joining the AAC.
This matchup at SMU figures to be one of North Texas' toughest tests of the season.
The Mean Green have been pretty prolific offensively this season despite losing the majority of their games. This team averages 34.8 points per game and is headlined by Chandler Rogers, who has thrown for 21 touchdowns and only three interceptions all year long.
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Rogers has this team at 44th in the country in Pass Success Rate as the Mean Green pass the ball at the 22nd-highest rate in the nation. That high passing rate likely comes from a result of playing from behind.
Despite passing the ball so often, UNT's run game still ranks fifth in explosiveness.
On the other side, the North Texas defense has been absolutely horrendous. It allows 36.7 points per game with poor marks against both the run and the pass. The Mean Green don't force many turnovers, and they don't get many stops.
The team ranks 127th in Rush Success Rate Allowed, so just about anyone can run the ball all over it.
This defense is slightly less terrible against the pass, ranking 113th in Pass Success Rate Allowed, but it's still not even close to good enough to slow down a team like the Mustangs.
North Texas will need to find some way to get a few stops in this one to keep this game in check, but that's easier said than done.
SMU Mustangs
The Mustangs enter at 7-2 overall and 5-0 in conference play. Head coach Rhett Lashlee looks to keep his team focused because SMU will likely need to win its last three games before facing Tulane in the conference title game.
SMU’s offense ranks 20th in explosiveness and is averaging a whopping 40 points per game. The Mustangs run a fairly even split between the run and the pass, and they rank fairly well in both.
They come in at 32nd in Rush Success Rate with running back Jaylan Knighton leading the charge with 511 yards this season.
The pass attack is headlined by sophomore Preston Stone, who has thrown an impressive 21 touchdowns to five interceptions this season. Knighton and Stone should both dominate a brutal North Texas defense.
Defensively, the Mustangs have played lights-out, as they allow only 15.9 points per game, giving them an average margin of victory of 24.1 points this season.
The Mustangs shut down both the run and the pass well, ranking ninth against the run, third against the pass and 22nd in Havoc.
North Texas needs to capitalize on the big play, as SMU sits just 71st in explosiveness allowed. That aspect will be a big test against Rogers and the North Texas passing attack.
North Texas vs SMU
Betting Pick & Prediction
North Texas can put up the points to hang around with anyone, but the Mean Green defense may not do its part to keep this one close.
Expect the Mustangs to do whatever they want offensively to keep pace with their average of 40 points per game. Ultimately, their defense will be the difference in this one.
SMU should get stops consistently enough to run away with this edition of the Safeway Bowl. Give me SMU -17 or better.
| |
Wyoming vs. UNLV
Wyoming hits the road for a late Friday night tilt with UNLV in Week 11.
The Cowboys picked up a much-needed win last Friday night, beating Colorado State, 25-14. The win propelled the Cowboys to bowl eligibility, and they're still very much alive for a berth in the Mountain West Championship game, though they need to win out and get some help.
At 7-2, UNLV may be one of the best stories in college football this season. For context, since 2001, the Rebels have had one winning season, and that was just a 7-6 campaign. Now, they're neck and neck with Fresno State for second place in the conference.
That being said, let's dig into this game, look at the Wyoming vs. UNLV odds and make a prediction.
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming is built to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage. However, it hasn't done a great job of that this season. The Cowboys are 71st in Offensive Line Yards and 95th in Rushing Success Rate.
The big problem in this matchup is that's where UNLV is best, as the Rebels rank inside the top 50 in both of those categories defensively. That's bad news for a Wyoming team that runs the ball on 59.8% of its offensive plays.
The key in this game will be Andrew Peasley and the Wyoming passing attack.
UNLV's secondary isn't good, but Peasley hasn't been that effective as a passer. He's very good in play action, which works well with Wyoming's rush-heavy offense, but Peasley has been terrible when the Cowboys get into obvious passing situations. On non-play action attempts this season, Peasley is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt and has a 57.1% completion percentage with a -0.126 EPA/Pass.
Wyoming's defensive metrics are average to below average on the season, but its home and road splits are almost night and day. The Cowboys are allowing 6.3 yards per play on the road compared to just 5.0 at home.
In this game, the Pokes are going to have to stop the run, as UNLV has one of the most rush-heavy offenses in the country. The Cowboys struggle in that aspect, ranking 94th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 118th in Defensive Line Yards.
UNLV Rebels
UNLV runs the ball 60.1% of the time and has been pretty successful doing so, averaging 4.5 yards per carry to rank 42nd in FBS.
The Rebels have a three-man backfield to constantly give the defense different looks. Vincent Davis Jr. has been the best running back by far, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and ranking top-30 in the country in EPA/Rush.
The key for UNLV's rushing attack is going to be dominating in the trenches because of how weak Wyoming has been up front.
Meanwhile, Jayden Maiava has been awesome during conference play, throwing nine touchdowns and averaging 9.5 yards per attempt. He has literally been one of the most effective and efficient passers in the entire country.
Just take a look at where he sits on the EPA leaderboard.
Image via Sports Info Solutions.
Over 40% of Maiava's pass attempts have gone over 10 yards in the air, and on those throws, he's averaging 13.9 yards per attempt.
The UNLV defense has been incredibly stout against the run and ranks 29th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
The Rebels haven't necessarily been dominant up front, but they aren't allowing opposing backs to break tackles. UNLV has the 26th-best tackling grade, per PFF, which is massive against Wyoming.
Wyoming vs UNLV
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is an unbelievable matchup for UNLV. Wyoming has been bad against both the run and the pass with almost all of its bad defensive performances coming on the road.
If UNLV gets out to an early lead and forces Wyoming to play at a fast tempo, this could get out of hand in a hurry.
Additionally, the best against-the-spread record in college football belongs to UNLV.
The most profitable team against the spread in college football?
UNLV at 8-1 ATS 🤑 🎰
(via @Bet_Labs)pic.twitter.com/HBHo0px2Rs
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 5, 2023
I have UNLV projected as a -9.1 favorite, so I love the value on them at home at -5 at DraftKings.
Pick: UNLV -5
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