The phrase “unprecedented times” was beaten to death during the COVID-19 pandemic, and that applied to college football as well.
The NCAA handed out an extra year of eligibility to counteract the unique circumstances programs were dealing with, all while the sport adjusted to the new realities of the transfer portal and NIL’s impact on the sport.
Five years removed from the strange 2020 season, you could now argue that we’re squarely in “precedented times.” Most programs have adjusted to the new normal, but extreme roster turnover continues to impact some teams more than others.
So, which teams are unlikely to overcome their personnel challenges this fall, and how can bettors take advantage? Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for some early Week 0 and Week 1 games.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Pick
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +285 |
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
Sam Houston hired an innovative head coach who knows how to coach up quarterbacks. Phil Longo’s offenses at North Carolina were incredibly dynamic, both through the air and on the ground. His “Dairy Raid” attack never quite panned out at Wisconsin, but that had more to do with the personnel than his Xs and Os.
The Bearkats have an intriguing quarterback in Hunter Watson to build around. He can do damage with his legs (647 yards, nine TDs) or when he puts the ball in orbit. He’ll be targeting big-play threat Qua'Vez Humphreys early and often this fall.
So, why am I listing them as a fade candidate? Their defense could be historically bad.
The Bearkats return just 20% of their defensive production (135th), zero starters and they're due for some bounces to go against them for a change. In 2024, Sam Houston went 6-0 in one-score games and had the eighth-best turnover margin in the sport.
And one added bonus is the fact that they won’t play a single home game in 2025. Yes, you read that right. While Bowers Stadium undergoes a facelift, the Bearkats must travel 70 miles to play their home games at Shell Energy Stadium, home of Houston Dynamo FC.
They open at Western Kentucky, a team that could be lethal on offense with Maverick McIvor throwing it all over the yard. Then they host UNLV, which outclasses them in the talent department, before a 4,300-mile road trip to Hawaii.
Their reward is a bye week and then a three-hour road trip to take on Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns.
This defense is going to get shredded, particularly in the secondary, where they have virtually no in-game experience.
Drawing a pair of pass-happy systems in WKU and Hawaii, an offensive mastermind in Dan Mullen at UNLV, and the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in next spring’s NFL Draft in Manning, and that’s the recipe for a 0-4 start straight up and against the spread.
Bettors should get ahead of this blowout train by playing WKU -9.5 in the opener against Sam Houston.
Pick: Western Kentucky -9.5
Jacksonville State vs UCF Pick
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Jacksonville State won Conference USA last season behind Rich Rodriguez’s innovative spread option running game. But Rich Rod took the West Virginia job in mid-December, and the Gamecocks’ roster was gutted by graduation and the transfer portal.
They return just four starters and have major questions along the offensive line.
New head coach Charles Kelly has been coaching at the college level since 1990, most recently serving as Auburn's co-defensive coordinator and Colorado's DC, but this will be his first opportunity to lead a program.
A defensive-minded head coach, with all new pieces on offense and a challenging opening month to the season, screams regression.
The Gamecocks open with UCF on the road at the Bounce House, host Liberty, travel to Statesboro to take on Georgia Southern, and then wrap the month of September with another road trip to face Southern Miss.
I’m high on all four of those teams and believe that JSU could get the stuffing beaten out of them while it tries to establish a completely new offensive identity.
I expect offensive coordinator Clint Trickett to flip the Gamecocks' run/pass ratio, which was the sixth-most run-heavy in the country last season.
The aforementioned gauntlet begins on Aug. 28. Grab UCF -16.5 now and bank on Scott Frost running it up in his first game back in Orlando.
Pick: UCF -16.5
