Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about the lights shining on the gridiron before a massive Saturday slate that features wall-to-wall action. That's what we have tonight with five FBS vs. FBS games on deck.
Our writers broke down all five of those games and came through with a pick for:
- Western Kentucky vs. Delaware
- Charlotte vs. USF
- New Mexico vs. San Jose State
- West Virginia vs. No. 23 BYU
- Colorado State vs. San Diego State
So, no matter what you're looking to bet on Friday night, we have you covered.
With so much action coming our way in the next couple of days, let's take a look at our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the games on Friday, Oct. 3.
College Football Picks, Predictions for Friday, Oct. 3
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Western Kentucky vs Delaware Pick
By Road To CFB
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers take on the Delaware Fightin Blue Hens in Newark, Delaware. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Delaware is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 62 points.
Here’s my Western Kentucky vs. Delaware prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 3.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Expectations for Rick Bowie and Maverick McIvor with Western Kentucky were sky-high.
Though not the preseason Conference USA favorite, Western Kentucky has plenty of optimists forecasting a run at the conference title. Those title aspirations are still in force, and Western Kentucky is still among the favorites to win the league.
Compared to recent years — especially Bailey Zappe's record-setting one under Zach Kittley — this offense is lethargic. Following a 41-24 win over FBS bottom-feeder Sam Houston State in Week 0, Western Kentucky hasn't broken 35 points against an FBS foe.
McIvor hasn't been the problem. He has 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions and over 1,400 yards on 190 attempts – all numbers near the lead in the FBS.
The absence of a run game is what's hurt this offense, despite its Air Raid tendencies. Previous dynamic Western Kentucky offenses made headlines through the air, but the Toppers always carried an efficient run game to help keep defenses honest.
The offensive line hasn't gotten any semblance of a push in the ground game. That allows defenses to send aggressive edge rushes and sit back over the top to slow things down in the scoring department.
But Western Kentucky sits 4-1, and that's in part due to a great defensive start. Aside from Toledo, the Toppers' defense hasn't allowed 25 points in a game.
If you're going to break the defense, that comes on the ground. Despite playing a cast of opposing quarterbacks that features Tucker Gleason and Jacob Clark, Western Kentucky hasn't allowed a 210-yard passer on the season.
There's a notable tackling issue early in the season, but a lockdown secondary and an aggressive pass rush have more than made up for it.
Watch for Harper Holloman, who's quickly become one of the most productive edge rushers in the country with 20 pressures and 10 run stops already.
Delaware Blue Hens
To summarize Delaware's inaugural FBS season in a short phrase: better than you think.
Ryan Carty's offense has translated beautifully early in the season. Though quarterback Zach Marker has been absent for most of it due to injury, Nick Minicucci took the reins and has led Delaware to a fringe top-40 scoring offense.
Running back Jo'Nathan Silver averages over seven yards per carry and ranks second in C-USA in 10+ yard rushes (12).
That option-based offense is unique — last year, it effectively incorporated three quarterbacks — and forces its new FBS foes to game plan more heavily than they do in other weeks.
That adjustment hasn't come easy yet, as quality teams like UConn surrendered 40 to the Blue Hens. Last game, Delaware upended FIU, a decent C-USA defense, with 38 points.
Defensively, Delaware has some work to do. UConn moved the ball at will to a tune of 7.3 yards per play, and FIU out-gained the Blue Hens. When outmatched, Delaware surrendered 31 points to Colorado with a circus at quarterback.
Down a top defender in the secondary (corner A'Khoury Lyde), the Blue Hens have struggled to defend the pass. It's benefited from opposing quarterbacks making mistakes, but when those signal callers don't make mistakes, the entire defense falls apart.
However, an experienced front six has been solid against the run, ranking inside the top 40 in Rushing Success Rate.
Unfortunately, Delaware isn't eligible for the C-USA title this year. The Blue Hens look to be one of the best teams in the conference, and that team gets a crack at one of the top dogs over the last half-decade on Friday.
Western Kentucky vs Delaware Prediction
Numbers are everything here. The line will likely flirt with -3 all week long as it hasn't moved through it as of Tuesday.
Western Kentucky backers would be wise to snag the number if and when it touches +3, whereas Delaware bettors should jump on -2.5 and not settle for -3.
Delaware has one of the biggest rest advantages you'll see this season. Western Kentucky plays its second of a back-to-back road game against a new FBS opponent and, therefore, a new prep.
The Hilltoppers struggled with Missouri State last week in Springfield and now have a short week to prepare for the Carty offense. This is Western Kentucky's third road trip in four games.
Delaware, of course, plays at home and comes off a bye week.
Teams like James Madison and Jacksonville State have recalibrated the way we react to new FBS programs that overachieve early. However, the market and numbers are still slow to react.
Gauging several industry ratings, Delaware lags behind. It ranks 100th in FPI and 104th in Sagarin ratings. Aggregated power ratings say back the Toppers.
Instead of betting the aggregate ratings, I'm looking to take advantage of backing a team I believe is much better and more difficult to prep for in Year 1 than it's given credit for.
Despite two strong data points (vs. UConn, FIU), Delaware appears to be misunderstood.
On the other hand, I haven't been overly impressed with Western Kentucky. The offense hasn't seemed to gel just yet (ranks just 65th in points per drive), and turnovers have been an issue.
Defensively, Western Kentucky is a poor tackling team. Perhaps this is the week it all clicks, but those back-to-back new team preps make me a skeptic.
The Blue Hens are excellent at home. Over the last three seasons, they are 18-3 straight up at home (make it 43-18 over the last 10!).
Pick: Delaware -2.5
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Charlotte vs USF Pick
By John Feltman
The Charlotte 49ers take on the South Florida Bulls in Tampa, FL. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
USF is favored by -28 points on the spread with a moneyline of -5000. The total is set at 55 points.
Here’s my Charlotte vs. USF prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 3.
Charlotte 49ers
Charlotte continues to search for consistency on offense, ranking 106th in EPA per play (-0.06) and generating just -4.50 EPA per game (108th nationally).
The 49ers do run a respectable 70 plays per game (41st), but efficiency remains the issue, with a 40.1% success rate (95th) and poor average starting field position (own 27-yard line, 96th).
The 49ers can't run the ball, ranking 136th nationally in EPA/Rush. However, the Bulls' defense has been slightly exposed against the run, which could lead to them extending drives.
They've been bludgeoned with offensive line injuries, which is partially why their run game has been nonexistent. They'll have to rely on quarterback Conner Harrell, who's completed 67% of his passes thus far.
Defensively, Charlotte has struggled to slow opponents, primarily through the air. Against the pass, the 49ers allow a 48.2% success rate (120th) and rank 100th in EPA/play allowed (0.15).
The run defense has been slightly steadier, holding teams to a 43% success rate (105th), but overall, the unit is bottom-tier in preventing explosive plays. That is key for the matchup, especially since weather concerns are worth monitoring.
Charlotte has no chance of pulling off an upset, but I think the number is far too significant, given the uncertainty of the weather forecast.
USF Bulls
USF is coming off a bye week, which gives it a chance to reset and recover ahead of this matchup. Offensively, the Bulls have been far more efficient than Charlotte, particularly through the air.
When passing, they generate 0.14 EPA/play (59th), with a 43.4% success rate (73rd). However, the run game lags significantly, ranking 123rd in rushing success rate (35.6%) and 102nd in EPA/play (-0.06), leaving the offense somewhat one-dimensional.
Quarterback Byrum Brown is perhaps one of the most critical impact players in the Group of 5, and his health is crucial for the Bulls' success for the remainder of the season. He should be able to get going on the ground against an weak Charlotte run defense, and their secondary has also been exposed a ton.
Defensively, USF has held up much better against the pass than the run. The Bulls allow just -0.12 EPA/play through the air (42nd) with a 40.4% success rate (65th), ranking in the top 40 nationally in pass defense efficiency.
Against the run, however, they're middle of the pack, allowing a 41% success rate (90th) and 0.00 EPA/play (82nd).
The Bulls should do their part on both sides of the ball, but with many wind concerns, I expect them to be one-dimensional for most of the game. That should lead to a lot of bleeding clock, which could make this game stall in the second half.
Charlotte vs USF Prediction
The weather is the X-factor here. Heavy winds and rain are projected to slow down both offenses, but the impact is bigger for USF, which has leaned on its passing efficiency (0.14 EPA/play, 59th nationally) to move the ball.
If forced into a run-heavy script, the Bulls will rely on a ground game that ranks 123rd in success rate (35.6%), limiting their ability to separate on the scoreboard as much. They should score, but the market overreacts a bit about how bad Charlotte has been.
Charlotte’s offense must assemble a couple of scoring drives to stay within the number. It's a tall task, but I think the 49ers can move the ball on the ground a bit against this Bulls' defensive front that has struggled to stop the run.
Still, in a lower-possession, slower-paced match, the 49ers can hang around simply by avoiding mistakes and leaning on their steadier run defense.
USF’s bye week and defensive strength make it the rightful favorite, but 28 points is a massive number in a game that projects to play under the total due to the weather.
Hold your nose, folks. We're diving deep into the dumpster with Charlotte. I'll take the +28 pre-game but will look to add more live in the second half when I expect the Bulls to be run-heavy due to the weather to run the clock out.
Picks: Charlotte +28 · Charlotte 2H Spread
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New Mexico vs San Jose State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
The New Mexico Lobos take on the San Jose State Spartans in San Jose, California. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on FS1.
San Jose State is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 58.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. San Jose State prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 3.
New Mexico Lobos
The critical stretch of the season is right in front of the New Mexico Lobos if they're to prove that their hot start was no fluke and that this feisty bunch should be taken seriously in the Mountain West this season.
New Mexico hasn’t lost since its opener at Michigan, a game it played very well in.
The offense has been improving each week under new head coach Jason Eck, as the Lobos notched season-highs in points and total yards last week against New Mexico State.
Quarterback Jack Layne threw for 344 yards and five touchdowns last week while completing 78% of his throws. Scottre Humphrey and Damon Bankston have been running the ball well and the receivers have shown they're explosive and consistent in making tough contested catches.
This has been a very impressive group so far.
Defensively, there are some concerns here as the stop unit is giving up 367 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. The Lobos provide very little havoc on opposing quarterbacks and teams are converting on third down at a high rate of 41%.
The complete shut-down of UCLA’s offense on national TV was impressive, but it appears more and more as if that type of defensive performance will be the exception rather than the expectation for New Mexico this season.
San Jose State Spartans
San Jose State came into this season as a preseason favorite to reach the Mountain West title game, but the Spartans have been about as disappointing a team as any this season in the Group of 5.
Their only victory was a three-point squeaker against FCS Idaho and losses against Central Michigan and Stanford have created little room for error if San Jose State is to make a bowl game and get its season back on track.
The offense is starting to hum for San Jose State after notching its best performance of the season last week. The Spartans registered 524 total yards and 7.3 yards per play.
Quarterback Walker Eget had his best passing day, with 473 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Danny Scudero has been electric this season, hauling in 33 receptions for 514 yards, which places him third in all of FBS as this point in the season.
Defensively, San Jose State has really struggled against the pass the last three weeks. The coverage unit grades out worst in the Mountain West by a significant margin, per PFF.
The secondary surrendered 444 pass yards to Stanford last week and at critical junctures in the fourth quarter, they couldn't get stops.
New Mexico vs San Jose State Prediction
I played over the total earlier in the week, and I would support a position on the over up to 58.5.
Both of these offenses have found a resurgence in their passing games and both quarterbacks should be licking their chops to get a crack at the opposing secondaries in this one. We should see very little pass rush in this game and clean pockets for both quarterbacks to make plays.
Both New Mexico and San Jose State struggle on the defensive front in creating defensive havoc. New Mexico ranks just 132nd in Defensive Havoc and had only generated two sacks during the first three weeks before registering nine last week against New Mexico State.
San Jose State ranks just 111th nationally in Defensive Havoc as the Spartans have registered just six sacks and 16 tackles for loss this season.
San Jose State completely abandoned the run game last week against Stanford, and we should see plenty of passing in this one as well. New Mexico ranks just 126th in Defensive Pass Play Explosiveness surrendered and 89th in Pass Play Success Rate.
We should see San Jose throw it around quite a bit here, while only sneaking in a run play on occasion.
San Jose State’s field goal operation unit let it down against Central Michigan in the opener and also failed it last week in the loss to Stanford. I suspect this team will opt for a fourth-down conversion attempt in the red zone rather than settling for field goals.
I expect the Spartans to convert those opportunities into points in a game they have to have to save their season.
Strap in for a fun one on Friday night, as we should see points a plenty.
Pick: Over 57.5 (Play to 58.5)
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West Virginia vs BYU Pick
The West Virginia Mountaineers take on the BYU Cougars in Provo, Utah. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
BYU is favored by -19 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1200. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my West Virginia vs. BYU prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 3.
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia enters Provo with an offense that’s broken in all the wrong ways.
The Mountaineers rank 96th in Success Rate, 108th in explosiveness and last at 130th in third-down conversions. Their offensive line hasn’t held up either, as West Virginia sits 97th in Havoc Allowed — meaning sacks, blown plays and negative yardage are a weekly reality.
Enter Khalil Wilkins, a redshirt freshman quarterback likely making his first career start. That’s a brutal setup against a BYU defense designed to punish inexperience with pressure and disruption.
Wilkins isn’t being asked to rescue a competent unit — he’s being asked to fix one of the least efficient offenses in the power conferences.
Without the ability to generate explosives or sustain drives, West Virginia’s attack has no reliable way to keep pace. Even “average” categories, such as penalties or production, offer no edge here.
Against most defenses, this offense is a liability. Against BYU, it looks like a disaster waiting to happen.
BYU Cougars
If you’re laying a big number, you want a defense that can dominate on its own — and BYU checks that box. The Cougars rank 29th nationally in Defensive Success Rate and 21st in Havoc, forcing negative plays and keeping opponents behind the chains.
They’re elite in the red zone (14th in Finishing Drives allowed) and suffocate field position (third nationally in opponent starting field position).
Pro Football Focus grades BYU as the 32nd-best defense in the nation, confirming what the metrics show: This is one of the most disruptive and fundamentally sound units in the country.
The Cougars don’t just slow you down — they choke out possessions before they begin. In betting terms, that profile matters. A defense that wins field position and produces turnovers is exactly how big spreads get covered, and BYU has all the ingredients.
West Virginia vs BYU Prediction
The matchup is about as lopsided as it gets.
BYU’s defense thrives on havoc and short fields, while WVU’s offense specializes in stalling out. That clash — BYU’s 21st-ranked havoc defense versus WVU’s 97th-ranked havoc allowed offense — tilts heavily toward the Cougars.
Add in West Virginia’s bottom-three third-down offense facing BYU’s top-30 third-down defense, and it’s hard to picture Wilkins sustaining many drives in his first-ever start.
The Cougars don’t need to play fast or hang 50 points to cover this number — their defense alone should manufacture extra possessions and quick scores. With PFF grading BYU’s defense inside the national top-35, the Cougars have both the analytics and the matchup edge to turn this into a rout.
Lay the -18.5 confidently. This is the exact type of game where BYU’s disruptive profile overwhelms an overmatched opponent.
Pick: BYU +18.5
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Colorado State vs San Diego State Pick
By John Feltman
The Colorado State Rams take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, California, on Friday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
San Diego State is favored by -6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -240. Colorado State, meanwhile, enters as a +200 underdog on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 41 points.
Here’s my Colorado State vs. San Diego State prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 3.
Colorado State Rams
Colorado State’s offense has struggled to generate efficiency, primarily through the air. The Rams rank 114th in EPA per Pass (-0.14) and have one of the nation’s longest conversion distances at an average of 8.53 yards on third downs (129th).
CSU benched starting quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ahead of the Rams’ Week 5 game against Washington State, opting to start Jackson Brousseau, who threw for 188 yards on 19-of-28 passing.
Success on early downs has also been rare, with a 0.00 EPA/Play (84th) and just a 38.5% third- and fourth-down Success Rate (113th).
The ground game is marginally better, producing 0.06 EPA/Rush (54th), but overall, this offense is heavily hampered by poor field position (average starting field position of own 26-yard line, 115th) and inefficient situational football.
Some injuries are concerning on the Rams' side of the ball, and their offensive line depth remains a concern. They haven't been the worst unit in terms of Havoc allowed, but they will be tested against a stout SDSU defense on Friday.
Defensively, Colorado State is more respectable against the run, allowing -0.14 EPA/rush to rank 29th. Still, its secondary has been leaky, giving up 0.17 EPA/Pass (111th) and nearly half of opponent available yards (47.1%).
Its inability to flip field position (opponents average start at own 30-yard line, 124th) adds pressure to a struggling offense.
The struggles in the secondary and special teams are concerning. Still, they will benefit from facing a bad SDSU offense that has benefited from its early-season schedule and turnover luck.
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State continues to lean on a defense-first identity.
The Aztecs’ pass defense has been one of the best in the country, ranking eighth in EPA/Pass allowed (-0.36) and seventh in early downs EPA/Play (-0.25). They also rank nationally in the top 10 in preventing available yards, holding opponents to just 24.8%, good for sixth nationally.
Although these numbers are impressive, I want to slow down when analyzing their work. They currently rank 132nd in strength of schedule, which could lead to many misleading metrics.
On offense, however, SDSU has battled inefficiency.
The Aztecs rank 113th in EPA/Pass (-0.14) and 87th in EPA/Rush (-0.02) while converting only 35.6% of third downs (116th). Their average starting field position is decent, but they struggle to extend drives and finish possessions.
Their quarterback situation has been unsettled with injuries earlier in the season. Depth at running back has also thinned due to minor knocks. QB Jayden Denegal has been mediocre since taking over, throwing three touchdown passes and three interceptions.
As bad as Colorado State has been defensively, it's been strong against the run, so I could see another game where SDSU struggles to move the ball like last week.
The Aztecs scored only six points in their win over Northern Illinois and were lucky to score 34 points against Cal the previous week, thanks to an abundance of turnovers.
Colorado State vs San Diego State Prediction
This matchup looks like a grinder and a complete mess offensively. San Diego State’s elite pass defense should overwhelm a Colorado State attack that already ranks 114th in EPA/Pass and constantly faces long downs and distances.
Conversely, CSU’s run defense can neutralize SDSU’s mediocre rushing game, forcing the Aztecs to throw, which isn't their strength.
If you're one of those sickos who love disastrous offensive units, this matchup is right up your alley.
Both teams profile as inefficient offensively, with defenses that can dictate tempo. Given Colorado State's poor field position metrics and SDSU’s inability to sustain drives, I can't find a path for either team to generate consistent scoring drives.
I'll stick with fading this San Diego State team and follow the sharp money coming across the counter on the Rams. Right now, they're +6 at most books, which I'm happy to grab in a game with a low total of 40.5.
Pick: Colorado State +6
