FAU vs USF Odds
| Florida Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | -145 |
In a Sunshine State showdown, South Florida welcomes Florida Atlantic to Tampa for an American Athletic Conference game.
The Bulls enter the weekend with a pair of AAC wins over Rice and Navy to own a 3-3 record on the season.
Meanwhile, the Owls won their debut game in their new conference over Tulsa a week ago after picking up just one victory in nonconference action.
This should be a great in-state rivalry for many years in the new AAC, and I believe this matchup will not disappoint.
Read on for our FAU vs USF prediction and pick.
Florida Atlantic Owls
A move to a new conference wasn’t the only big change for FAU in the offseason. The program made a switch at head coach by bringing in former Houston and Texas coach Tom Herman.
It hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Owls under Herman. However, they've had a difficult schedule to start his reign.
FAU had two road trips to Power 5 opponents in Clemson and Illinois, which followed a game against Mid-American Conference favorite Ohio. To make matters worse, Herman was also forced into a change at quarterback.
Nebraska transfer Casey Thompson was knocked out of the loss to the Tigers with a season-ending injury, leaving Daniel Richardson to replace him.
The uncertainty at QB hasn’t slowed down receiver LaJohntay Wester, who leads the country in receiving yards per game. If you add in the powerful runner of Larry McCammon III, this offense could start to take flight under Herman.
South Florida Bulls
FAU wasn’t the only program to make a change in leadership this summer. South Florida also decided to go in another direction by bringing in former UCF and Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh.
The offense has already started to show big signs of improvement under Golesh, with the Bulls averaging just over 40 points per game over the last three games.
In fact, USF trails only North Texas and UAB in the AAC in yards per game (441.5), and its 23 touchdowns are also the third-most in the conference.
As for the defense, there have been issues, especially on the road. It's easy to forget that this was the same unit that held Alabama to just 17 points at Raymond James Stadium.
If Golesh can just get a few more stops from the Bulls defensively, he will have his sights set on making a bowl game in his first season with the program.
Florida Atlantic vs USF
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida Atlantic and USF match up statistically:
Florida Atlantic Offense vs. USF Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 112 | |
| Havoc | 110 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 124 | 88 | |
| Quality Drives | 106 | 88 | |
USF Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 84 | 92 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 76 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 118 | |
| Finishing Drives | 91 | 90 |  |
| Quality Drives | 100 | 44 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 9 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 79 | 128 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 101 | 17 |
| Middle 8 | 130 | 120 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.7 (24) | 21.6 (3) |
| Rush Rate | 43.7% (127) | 57.0% (54) |
Florida Atlantic vs USF
Betting Pick & Prediction
I was on this South Florida team a few weeks ago in the game at Navy, and I feel the Bulls are again undervalued in this spot.
So, I will be backing USF on the spread at -2.5, which I would play to -3. If you'd rather play the moneyline, I wouldn’t go any higher than -145 odds.
When I dug into this game deeper, there are a couple of key areas that favor the home team. Both offensive lines do a good job of getting a push up front, but it's South Florida that ranks in the top 40 in terms of Defensive Havoc.
The Bulls come into this game ranked ninth in the FBS in tackles for loss, which will be very important against an inexperienced quarterback.
There's also a clear advantage in special teams for USF, which has a unit that ranks in the top 10, according to SP+. Meanwhile, the Owls sit outside the top 100.
The final selling point is how Golesh’s team has performed at home. South Florida has covered the spread in two of its three games at Raymond James Stadium, and I have its opponent in both of those games rated much higher than this FAU team.
Add in the fact that USF has the better quarterback in Byrum Brown, and I really like the Bulls to continue to roll at home.
