TCU vs Iowa State Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
After difficult results last week, Iowa State and TCU both look to rebound in this Big 12 matchup under the lights in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday night.
The Cyclones were not even competitive at No. 12 Oklahoma, dropping their third game to fall to 2-3 on the year. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs were shut out in the second half against West Virginia to come into this contest at 3-2.
This is a contrast of styles in this matchup, and I believe all of the betting value is on the visitors in this conference game.
TCU Horned Frogs
Even with the struggles on offense last week, head coach Sonny Dykes’ team still has some great offensive weapons. The dynamic duo starts with star running back Emani Bailey.
On the year, Bailey ranks eighth nationally and second in the Big 12 with 538 rushing yards. He has also topped the century mark in three of his five games this season.
It's helped that the Horned Frogs’ offensive line has been excellent, ranking 10th in Line Yards. The combination of Bailey and the blockers up front has helped TCU rank in the top 15 in Rush Success through five games.
Another key player has been quarterback Chandler Morris, who ranks top-20 nationally in passing yards per game at 283.8 yards per game. He's the first TCU quarterback since at least 1996 to pass for a pair of touchdowns in the opening five games of the season.
This is still an average defensive team, but it may not matter as much in this matchup against a weak Iowa State offense.
Iowa State Cyclones
After the gambling case was announced against multiple Iowa State players, it was always going to be a difficult season for head coach Matt Campbell.
The biggest loss was starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers, who likely will not be available at all this season.
Campbell has elected to go with youth this season as well. For last week's game against the Sooners, the Cyclones had only nine seniors on the travel squad. They're also the only team in the country that hasn't given a rushing attempt to a junior or senior.
The defense has still been competent under Campbell, but Iowa State needs to see more production on offense to turn this season around.
On the plus side, Campbell’s team will be rocking these cool throwback uniforms for the Jack Trice Legacy Game to honor the first African-American student-athlete in school history.
The special Jack Trice Legacy uniform for @CycloneFB#uniswagpic.twitter.com/lXkhglz1ow
— UNISWAG (@UNISWAG) October 5, 2023
TCU vs Iowa State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Iowa State match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 32 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 48 | |
| Quality Drives | 24 | 56 | |
Iowa State Offense vs. TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 69 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 28 | |
| Quality Drives | 93 | 47 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 106 | 100 |
| PFF Coverage | 90 | 22 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 89 | 47 |
| Middle 8 | 38 | 88 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.4 (2) | 28.7 (96) |
| Rush Rate | 52.7% (79) | 46.9% (98) |
TCU vs Iowa State
Betting Pick & Prediction
How will Iowa State do enough on offense to keep up with TCU in this game? We all know that the Horned Frogs aren’t great on defense, but I can’t trust the Cyclones at all.
So, my best bet is to take the visitors at -6, which I would bet to -7.
On the season, ISU ranks 131st in Rush Success and 132nd in Line Yards out of 133 teams in the FBS. This means Campbell will not be able to rely on the ground game to grind out the clock and keep the ball away from TCU’s offense.
In fact, this is the same team that ranks 93rd in Quality Drives and 83rd in Finishing Drives, which is not good against a Horned Frogs defense that's inside the top 50 in both metrics.
Yes, the Cyclones defense has been solid, but they also haven’t faced many good offenses. The Sooners were the only top offensive unit, and they dropped 50 points on Campbell's bunch last Saturday.
Meanwhile, we've seen TCU cover this sort of spread against lesser opposition, winning by 23 at Houston and defeating SMU by 17.
I feel that oddsmakers are downgrading the Frogs too much after the loss last week, but I believe West Virginia is a solid team. I can’t say the same about Iowa State.
